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Greg Cosell's Super Bowl Preview: Patriots D has specific challenges, including defending Julio Jones
There are some critical matchup elements between the Atlanta Falcons’ offense and New England Patriots’ defense in Super Bowl LI that bear watching.
A lot has been made of what the Patriots will try to take away from the Falcons’ offense in this game. The more accurate question is how will the Patriots match up to certain Falcons’ personnel groupings, and of course receiver Julio Jones? I’ll look at the Jones matchup in depth later in this post, but first I want to discuss a specific matchup issue I assume the Patriots have been planning for.
The Falcons are very multiple with personnel packages, and using different formations from all personnel. One personnel grouping the Falcons like to use is “21,” with two running backs and one tight end. That creates issues for the Patriots, because they don’t use a conventional front seven with seven linebackers and defensive linemen most plays. They like to use “big nickel,” with five defensive backs including three safeties. Last week when the Steelers used three tight ends, the Patriots still matched up with five defensive backs (the Falcons will likely try some “13” personnel too with one back and three tight ends).
When the Steelers went to “21” personnel, however, the Patriots matched up with four defensive linemen and three linebackers, something they don’t do often. It’s worth watching what the Patriots do in this game, because they’ll see a lot of “21.” It’s a question of how the Patriots feel they can stop the run game. Can they do it with their “big nickel” package, or go away from the grouping that is has been a staple of their defense all season? And will they play a single-high safety and an extra defender in the box, or use two deep safeties – to give extra attention to Jones – and hope they can stop the run with their front seven? That’s a critical element to this game.
Another problem is the Falcons use “21” personnel and then line up in different formations. It can be a passing group for them. Here’s the second play of Atlanta’s second possession in the NFC championship game, out of “21.” The Falcons went to an empty set and Mohamed Sanu was open on an out route against the void in “Cover 2” zone.
The Patriots have to figure out how to match up against running backs Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman when the Falcons come out in “21” personnel but then split the backs out wide. They’ve had a lot of success doing that, because both backs are good receivers. My sense is the Patriots will match safety Devin McCourty against the backs in those instances and not use a linebacker, but we’ll have to see. Bill Belichick often does things you don’t expect.
The Falcons run a lot of plays off “21” straight-I iso lead action, too. When you can run it well, it opens up other things, and the Falcons are very effective in the pass game out of that personnel and formation. Watch for it on Super Bowl Sunday. Here’s an example, with a play-action fake opening up Jones for 17 yards against the Green Bay Packers. You can see how the fake gives room for Jones.
However the Patriots match up against the run game, they have to worry about Jones of course. I don’t anticipate Malcolm Butler will shadow Jones. Butler shadowed Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Butler usually doesn’t shadow bigger receivers like Jones. Against A.J. Green of the Cincinnati Bengals, who’s a better comparison to Jones than Brown, the Patriots played 21 snaps of man: Butler matched on Green only twice, while Eric Rowe was on Green for 11 snaps and Logan Ryan had eight.
The Patriots have to be worried Jones on in-breaking routes. He is excellent going across the middle. The Falcons do a lot of damage in the middle of the field. Jones is great on crossing routes, and Sanu works the middle of the field as well. The Patriots could use some “1 robber” coverage in certain situations, with a safety roaming in the middle.
The in-breaking route is huge for Jones. He had 51 catches of at least 15 yards this season, and 36 were on in-breaking routes. It’s no big secret why Jones is so good at those routes: He has a great combination of size and speed. This is a 20-yard catch on third-and-4 against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 10. Jones was in inside slot position. Jones worked from the outside in, and it’s tough to cover him in those instances.
Here’s the kind of play that defines Jones as a receiver. In man coverage (the Packers’ first snap of “Cover 1” in the NFC title game), Jones physically beat Packers cornerback LaDarius Gunter so badly off the line of scrimmage that it was pitch and catch. Then Jones used his strength and speed to take it all the way for a 73-yard touchdown. You can easily see the challenge for the Patriots on this kind of route.
The Falcons also play off Jones’ ability on in-breaking routes. On this play against the Packers, Gunter was matched on Jones, and Jones ran an outstanding out route, using his head and initial break to show an in-breaking route before cutting outside. Gunter played the in-breaking route – everyone knows how good Jones is on those crossing routes, you have to worry about it – and lost contact with Jones on a 20-yard catch. Watch how open Jones is as Gunter keeps covering an in-breaking route even after Jones has cut it outside.
There are a lot of strategic elements to this game between two strong coaching staffs. The Patriots often come up with creative plans, and they have a lot to worry about against a very good and diverse Falcons offense.
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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.
