Who’s going to win? Breaking down Hurricanes-Panthers in the Eastern Conference finals

Speaking solely in terms of seeding, the Florida Panthers are the least formidable team the Carolina Hurricanes have yet faced in the playoffs this spring.

But they have also knocked off the top-seeded Boston Bruins and the high-flying Toronto Maple Leafs to get this far, and with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky back in form, the Panthers are looking to pull off a third straight upset.

Kind of like the Hurricanes once did under Paul Maurice.

Here’s how the two teams stack up in the Eastern Conference finals best-of-seven series:

FORWARDS

Nobody on either team scored more than Matthew Tkachuk in the regular season and no one on either team has scored more in the playoffs than Tkachuk. There’s a top-end skill advantage there for the Panthers that the Hurricanes can’t match. The Panthers’ other big line has two-way center Aleksander Barkov surrounded by two speedy, skilled wingers.

But what the Hurricanes lack in elite skill, they make up in depth. They roll four lines consistently, grinding teams down at five-on-five, while the Panthers play their Eric Staal-centered fourth line sparingly. The Hurricanes won’t be worried about getting stuck with any bad matchups, while the Panthers will have to be careful home and away.

Edge: Even

DEFENSE

The trade-deadline arrival of Shayne Gostisbehere wasn’t as ballyhooed as some others (Bo Horvat or Timo Meier, to name two the Hurricanes eliminated), but he gave the Hurricanes as strong a six-man defensive unit as there is in the league. Again, there are no matchup concerns for the Hurricanes here, with that third pairing of Gostisbehere and Jalen Chatfield proving itself capable of handling anything so far. Jaccob Slavin is coming off a historic performance against the Devils, even if Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei saw the majority of the work against Jack Hughes.

Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, the Panthers’ top defensemen, would have a hard time cracking the Hurricanes’ top four, and former Hurricanes minor-leaguer Gustav Forsling plays a key role for Florida. But the Panthers do a good job of engaging their blue line on offense and Radko Gudas is the series’ most dangerous physical threat. Still, this is an area where the Hurricanes should have a significant advantage.

Edge: Hurricanes

GOALTENDING

Coming into the playoffs, the Panthers didn’t have a ton of confidence in either Bobrovsky or former Hurricanes minor-leaguer Alex Lyon, but Bobrovsky seized the reins against the Bruins and hasn’t let up. He was spectacular against Toronto, closer to the form that made him a two-time Vezina Trophy winner earlier in his career. His analytics are the best among the remaining goalies. The question he’ll face is whether the six-day break cooled off his heater.

For the Hurricanes, the week off gave Frederik Andersen time to rest after an unprecedented string of six straight starts, while Antti Raanta is no longer sick and remains an option as needed after starting the first five games for Carolina. Given how well Andersen has played, it’s probably better news for the Hurricanes if they don’t go back to the rotation, but it’s an option they’ll be comfortable with if it comes to that.

Edge: Even

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Islanders and Devils came into the playoffs with historically inefficient power plays, and they ran into the brick wall of the Hurricanes’ penalty-kill. That changes in this series, with the Panthers clicking along at a 27.6 percent clip in the playoffs after going 22.8 percent in the regular season. That said, in terms of raw numbers, they’re plus-6 on the power play in 12 games. The Hurricanes are plus-1 while shorthanded. It’s a real strength-on-strength matchup.

The Hurricanes’ power play has been adequate, and Teuvo Teravainen’s return should only help, while the Panthers have limped along on the penalty-kill at 65.8 percent. That may be an area the Hurricanes can exploit.

Edge: Hurricanes

INTANGIBLES

Both teams try to play the same way: Get it out, get it deep and grind you down. Neither team is going to look at the other as a finesse opponent, the way the Hurricanes looked at the Devils and the Panthers looked at the Maple Leafs. (In some ways, this may resemble the Islanders series, albeit against an opponent with a functioning power play.)

Hurricanes fans need no introduction to Maurice’s history of taking teams on long playoff runs, and the Panthers have more top-end talent than the Hurricanes did in 2002 or 2009. He’s 4-0 in Game 7s, two of them here, if it comes to that. But the Hurricanes have made it this far without Andrei Svechnikov or Max Pacioretty, and there’s a combination of experience and hunger that has provided a deep reservoir of motivation.

Edge: Even

N&O PREDICTIONS

Luke DeCock: Hurricanes in 6

Chip Alexander: Hurricanes in 7

Justin Pelletier: Hurricanes in 6

What others are saying

Despite the Hurricanes’ regular-season record, Carolina was a popular “upset” pick in the first round among national and regional pundits.

So much for that.

Though, to some degree the trepidation to pick the Canes was fair. Goalie rotations in the playoffs rarely work out, they are playing without their lone All-Star, they never really got anything from their big offseason acquisition, and they didn’t “beef up” at the deadline like so many others did.

Despite all that, the Hurricanes handled the Islanders in six, and the Devils in five.

Now, surely, the national mood has shifted in the Canes’ favor?

Sort of. Here’s a look at who is picking which team to win:

ESPN preview (Kristen Shilton): Hurricanes in 7

“There’s hard-earned experience throughout Carolina’s lineup. And the Hurricanes’ defense is just so stifling it might be the genuine difference-maker in this series.”

Bleacher Report (Sara Civian, Lyle Richardson, Joe Yerdon): Hurricanes in 6

All three writers here independently picked the Canes to win in six games.

“Carolina’s defense has been all-around superb and regardless of who’s been in goal, they’ve just flat-out won.”

The Hockey News (Adam Proteau): Hurricanes in 7

“This is the Hurricanes’ series to win, and if things go similarly well for them in the next couple weeks, they’ll be the rightful favorite to win in the Cup final.” (It should also be noted, Proteau picked the Hurricanes to win the Stanley Cup at the beginning of the season.)

Draft Kings (Benjamin Zweiman): Hurricanes

“The Hurricanes have a bit more experience and drive, plus the better coach in Rod Brind’Amour. Carolina can throw strong defensive play at Matthew Tkachuk and the top line with Aleksander Barkov. Carolina’s speed and depth on defense should help in getting past Florida.”

NHL.com (multiple writers, consensus: Dead heat

Sixteen different NHL.com writers and editors made selections. Eight of them picked the Panthers, eight of them picked the Canes. Of those who picked the Panthers, five said it was going six games, the other three said seven games. Of those who picked the Canes, five said it was going seven games, three said six games.

LEADING SCORERS

(goals-assists-points)

Carolina

Sebastian Aho 5-5-10

Jordan Martinook 3-7-10

Jesper Fast 5-3-8

Jordan Staal 2-6-8

Brent Burns 2-6-8

Florida

Matthew Tkachuk 5-11-16

Carter Verhaeghe 5-7-12

Brandon Montour 6-3-9

Aleksander Barkov 2-7-9

Sam Reinhart 6-2-8

Sam Bennett 4-4-8

GOALIES

(wins-losses, goals-against average, save percentage)

Carolina

Frederik Andersen 5-0, 1.80, .931

Antti Raanta 3-2, 2.59, .906

Pyotr Kochetkov 0-1, 6.14, .818

Florida

Sergei Bobrovsky 7-2, 2.82, .918

Alex Lyon 1-2, 3.26, .902