Yahoo Sports Game prediction for Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball matchup vs. Michigan State
The No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to face Michigan State in the Champions Classic on Tuesday night at State Farm Arena.
KU defeated UNC on Friday, while Michigan State beat Niagara on Thursday.
KU holds an 8-7 lead in the all-time series. The last meeting was a 87-74 KU win in the 2021 Champions Classic.
Below is a scouting report and prediction for the game.
No. 1 Kansas vs. Michigan State
When/where: 5:30 p.m. Central, State Farm Arena, Atlanta
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 2-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 33
Betting line: Kansas is a 6.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Michigan State Team Strengths
Elite defense: Michigan State ranks No. 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency (94.1). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the amount of points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. MSU ranked No. 9 in the same metric during the 2023-24 season.
Active on the glass: The Spartans rank No. 16 in offensive rebounding percentage (43.7).
Trust in the bench: Michigan State coach Tom Izzo isn’t afraid to play his bench players, as MSU ranks No. 8 in bench minutes percentage (43.7%). KU is No. 88 in that same category.
Michigan State Team Weaknesses
Issues shooting the long ball: Michigan State ranks No. 294 in team 3-point percentage (25%). MSU also doesn’t take many 3-pointers, with only 28.1% of its shots from deep — that ranks 332nd nationally.
Struggling to defend from deep: Opposing teams have shot a scorching 46.5% on 3-pointers vs. MSU. That ranks No. 283 nationally; KU is shooting 39.5% from deep through two games — No. 73 overall.
Weak schedule: Unlike KU, who played a ranked UNC team on Friday, Michigan State hasn’t played any tough opponents. The Spartans’ strength of schedule ranks outside the top 300.
Michigan State Name to Know
6–foot-4 senior guard Jaden Akins (No. 3)
+ Good scorer (16.5 PPG)
+ Great rebounder for his size (7.5 rebounds per game)
+ Willing passer (3.5 APG)
– Rough start from deep (shooting 14.3% on 3-pointers)
– Not a great free throw shooter (hasn’t hit above 75% in his first three seasons, currently shooting 85.7%)
Tale of the Tape
Michigan State’s struggles to defend the 3-ball are well-documented this season. Opponents are shooting 46.3% on 3-pointers vs. the Spartans.
It’s a weakness that the Jayhawks can exploit.
On one play, a Monmouth player created a slight window of separation with a screen and canned the quick 3-pointer before the Michigan State player could fully contest.
For the Jayhawks, look for many above-the-break 3-pointers from guards Zeke Mayo and David Coit, with screens set by KU bigs Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams.
For Mayo and Coit, 3-pointers have accounted for over 65% of their shots this season. Opponents are shooting a blistering 60.9% from deep on transition opportunities vs. the Spartans. Look for KU to play with pace and not be afraid to let it fly.
Kansas-Michigan State game prediction
What a difference a year makes.
A season ago, this Jayhawks team wouldn’t match up nearly as well against a Michigan State team that defends 2-pointers well but struggles vs. 3-point shooters.
Luckily for Kansas, this roster is built around maximizing shooting around KU’s star big man, Dickinson.
If Kansas limits the Spartans on the offensive boards, it will be much more difficult for Michigan State to score enough to keep up with the Jayhawks.
At that point, it just becomes a math equation. MSU doesn’t shoot enough (or make enough) 3-pointers to keep up with KU’s offense. The only solution is for Michigan State to force KU into turnovers, but remember, KU ranks No. 34 in turnover percentage (12.1).
KU will also have a plethora of offensive options against this Michigan State squad, and that’s why I like Kansas in this one.
Kansas 75, Michigan State 67
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-6.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 2-0
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 0-2
KU Player to Watch: Zeke Mayo
It’s only been two games, but Zeke Mayo looks like KU’s best scorer. He’s averaging 20 points per game … off the bench.
In addition, he’s a lethal 3-point shooter who will play against a Spartans squad with a weakness defending the long ball.
He could set a new KU career-high. At the very least, the defensive attention will lead to some easy buckets for his teammates.
