Yahoo Sports Game prediction for Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball matchup vs. North Carolina
The No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to face fellow blueblood North Carolina on Friday evening at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence.
KU defeated Howard in its season opener on Monday, while UNC opened by beating Elon.
The all-time KU-UNC series is tied 6-6. In their the last meeting ... well, you remember: It was a 72-69 KU victory in the 2022 NCAA championship final.
Here’s a scouting report and prediction for the game:
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 9 North Carolina
When/where: 6 p.m. Friday, Allen Fieldhouse
TV/streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 1-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 17
Betting line: Kansas is a 7-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
North Carolina Team Strengths
Take care of the ball: UNC ranked No. 5 in turnover percentage (8). It’s a continuing trend from last season, when the Tar Heels ranked No. 20 in turnover percentage (14.1).
Offensive savants: North Carolina ranks No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency — the number of points scored per 100 possessions.
Sharing is caring: North Carolina ranks No. 28 in assist rate. Currently, the Jayhawks rank No. 52 in assist rate, although these stats represent a very small sample size.
North Carolina Team Weaknesses
Issues with defending the long ball: UNC ranked No. 238 in opposing team 3-point percentage (44.8%).
Don’t get to the line: North Carolina struggled to draw fouls vs. Elon, emerging with a No. 227 national ranking in free-throw rate (20%).
Not very tall: UNC ranks No. 211 in average height (6-foot-3). KU ranks No. 46 in the same metric (6-foot-5).
North Carolina Name to Know
6–foot senior guard RJ Davis (No. 4)
+ 2023-24 consensus first-team All-American
+ Great scorer (24 points per game)
+ Good rebounder (7 rebounds per game)
+ Willing passer (7 assists per game)
- Turnover prone (1.5 turnovers per game last season)
– Rough start from deep (shot 27.3% on 3-pointers vs. Elon)
Tale of the Tape
RJ Davis is dangerous with the ball in his hands.
This is perfectly illustrated in this UNC score. Davis dribbled the ball, drew two defenders, and passed to Seth Trimble, who canned the 3-pointer.
The Elon defenders overreacted because of Davis’ ability to score at the rim. He shot 66.7% at the rim in that game.
For the Jayhawks, the solution is simple: Don’t double-team Davis. UNC has plenty of capable shooters who can make Kansas pay from deep.
In a scenario like this, if Davis gets past his defender and goes to the rim, the help has to come late — either Hunter Dickinson or KJ Adams must slide over to protect the basket. That reduces the chances of Davis making a bucket or dumping off to a teammate for a 3-pointer.
Game Prediction
This should be a fun game.
The Jayhawks will face Davis, Trimble, and Elliot Cadeau, the nation’s most formidable guard trio.
KU guards Dajuan Harris and Rylan Griffen face the challenging task of mitigating that trio on defense. But the Jayhawks have the advantage in big men thanks to Dickinson and Adams.
I expect Dickinson to get fed in this game. UNC lacks defenders who can match his height and stop him in the post.
It’ll likely be a close game early, but I like KU to pull away in this one.
Kansas 75, UNC 67
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-7.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 1-0
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 0-1
KU Player to watch: Flory Bidunga
This matchup against UNC is the first real test for the freshman big man.
Bidunga had some plays against Howard that showcased his post offense. Those plays included a baby hook and post-spin that led to a layup.
KU coach Bill Self doesn’t believe that kind of offense from Bidunga “is real.”
Let’s see if Bidunga can show something more against the formidable Tar Heels.
