Game-by-game picks for Kansas football’s 2024 season, plus five bold predictions

High excitement and expectations surround the Kansas Jayhawks football team entering the 2024 season.

For the first time since 2008, KU is ranked in both major preseason college football polls. And those who cover the Big 12 picked the Jayhawks to finish fourth in the conference.

When asked about these preseason projections, KU coach Lance Leipold gave an earnest answer.

“It doesn’t mean much, especially as we get close to kicking things off,” he said. “I also have to make sure it means something for this program, considering where we’re at, what it’s been.

“And we need to make sure we’re taking strides from last year to this year (in such a way) that people are recognizing this program, recognizing the talent on this team.”

It’s important to remember the low points to which Leopold alludes ... while also keeping in mind how much can be accomplished this year, season four of his tenure in Lawrence.

Here are five bold predictions for KU’s 2024 campaign and game-by-game picks through the regular season:

1. Freshmen DEs Warner, Brinkley will make a difference this season

Plenty of questions surround KU’s defensive line after the departure of sack leader Austin Booker to the NFL and Gage Keys’ transfer to Auburn.

Recently, however, Leipold raved about freshman defensive ends DJ Warner and Dakyus Brinkley.

“Dak and DJ continue to get better and understand what they’re going to do,” the KU coach said. “We continue to work them on special teams, as well, and we will see where it shakes with the rotation. … If you’re trying to ask if those freshmen could play some this year, that’s a high possibility.”

Neither is likely to start, but both could be pivotal this season. The biggest question mark for KU’s defense is who will consistently be able to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Right now, there’s no clear answer. Leipold will likely shuffle members of his defensive line for the first few games in hopes of finding that perfect combination of run-stoppers and guys who can get to the quarterback.

I expect at least one of the above-mentioned two freshmen to develop and help alleviate KU’s pass-rush concerns.

2. Jalon Daniels will win Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year

There’s no denying the talent of KU quarterback Jalon Daniels. The big question, of course, is whether he can stay healthy.

Although he played in just three games last season, he’s still not far removed from a memorable 2022 campaign. In just nine games, he threw for 2,014 yards and 18 touchdowns with four interceptions. He also ran for 425 yards and seven more TDs.

The Jayhawks coaching staff has treated Daniels and his recovery process with extreme caution since last season. Here’s what Leipold said about the QB in early August.

“That’s a balancing act right now for us,” Leipold said. “We’ve got to get him back in sync and do it, to get all the bodies around him and get used to that ...

“But again it needs to be good load management. I think they use that word in the NBA or something like that. I think we might borrow it or something for this year.”

Just about everyone would like to see a healthy season from Jalon Daniels. He’s been a great story for the Jayhawks, and college football.

But KU’s cautious approach is the proper one. The hope is that last season’s setbacks are behind him ... and if that’s the case, Daniels should once again be a star.

3. KU’s defense will take a slight step back in creating turnovers

The Jayhawks did a tremendous job of causing havoc with game-changing defensive plays last season. Oftentimes, those turnovers led directly to points.

KU tied for No. 56 in the nation in total turnovers caused, with multiple pick-six plays and fumble returns for touchdowns.

Kansas’ strong secondary returns, but the defensive line is a bit of a question mark. The Jayhawks did a fine job of generating pressure last season, leading to mistakes by their opponents.

Things might not come that easy this year, but creating turnovers will be no less important.

4. Devin Neal will be first-team All-Big 12 ... and All-America

The first part isn’t necessarily a “bold” prediction because running back Devin Neal made the preseason All-Big 12 team in a league featuring multiple stars at his position.

Neal ran for 1,280 yards on 203 carries last season, averaging 6.3 yards per carry with 17 touchdowns. All-Big 12 second-team honors followed.

This offseason, many suspected he’d leave for the NFL Draft. But Neal returned for a final season in his hometown.

Now he’s poised to turn in the type of year that would further cement his place as a Jayhawk legend while also boosting his draft stock — an All-American type year.

5. Kansas will win the Big 12 Championship Game

Since last season ended, KU’s goal has been to make it to — and win — the Big 12 Championship Game.

“We’ve talked about putting ourselves in a position, with the amount of players that we have returning, that we can be now ... in a conversation to compete for a conference championship,” Leipold said after KU’s bowl win against UNLV. “And I don’t think I ever would have thought I would be saying that this quick into this time here at Kansas.”

The Jayhawks have the talent and schedule to do it. Besides K-State, KU doesn’t play a single opponent that was ranked in the top six in the preseason Big 12 media poll. The Jayhawks are also favorites in their out-of-conference games, against Lindenwood, Illinois, and UNLV.

Given their returning talent and favorable schedule, the notion that the Jayhawks could win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff isn’t far-fetched. I believe this will be a truly special season for the KU fan base.

Game-by-game predictions

Game 1. vs. Lindenwood

KU’s schedule starts with a relatively tame first game against Lindenwood.

The Lions transitioned from Division II to Division I two years ago and have struggled with the adjustment ever since, finishing 3-7 last year, including 1-5 (last place) in the Big South OVC. Don’t expect this game to be close.

If all goes well, KU fans might get a chance to see freshman QB Isaiah Marshall play a few snaps.

Prediction: Kansas (1-0)

Game 2. at Illinois

Last season, the Jayhawks defeated Illinois at home 34-23 thanks to an excellent game by Jalon Daniels and company.

This season, KU will travel to Champaign to play the Fighting Illini. I expect a tougher matchup on the road, but Illinois isn’t a powerhouse. Big Ten media picked Illinois to finish 13th of 18 teams in the league’s preseason poll.

The Jayhawks should win this one.

Prediction: Kansas (2-0)

Game 3. vs. UNLV

This game is a rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, and both teams should be even better this season.

The Rebels were predicted to finish second in the Mountain West preseason poll, and I expect this will be a shootout. KU must contain star receiver Ricky White but is equipped to do so with Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant in coverage.

And the Jayhawks’ offense is better than UNLV’s, so I give KU the edge.

Prediction: Kansas (3-0)

Game 4 at West Virginia

This should be a fun matchup.

Morgantown isn’t the easiest place to play, but expectations for West Virginia aren’t exactly high this season. Big 12 media picked the Mountaineers No. 7 in the preseason poll.

West Virginia’s running back duo of Jaheim White and CJ Donaldson Jr. will be a handful, but I expect the Jayhawks to win, even on the road.

Prediction: Kansas (4-0)

Game 5 vs. TCU

The Horned Frogs are just two seasons removed from an appearance in the NCAA Championship Game. Unfortunately for TCU fans, most of that team is long gone.

Big 12 media picked TCU to finish No. 10 this year.

KU’s primary focus will be stopping TCU’s strong corps of receivers, led by Savion Williams. He had 573 receiving yards and four touchdowns last season for the Horned Frogs.

Like the Jayhawks, TCU’s biggest weakness is its pass rush. If you can’t get to the Daniels more often than not, the Jayhawks are very difficult to beat.

Give me KU in this one.

Prediction: Kansas (5-0)

Game 6 at Arizona State

There’s no such thing as a “gimme” game in the Big 12, but this one comes pretty close. The Sun Devils occupy the last place spot in Big 12 preseason rankings.

It’s on the road, but the Jayhawks should dominate. I don’t see Leipold’s team losing to this Arizona State team.

Prediction: Kansas (6-0)

Game 7 vs. Houston

This will be the first game between these two since Houston joined the conference last year.

The Cougars made Willie Fritz their new head coach this offseason. A two-time JUCO national champion, he has his work cut out for him with this squad.

On the other hand, the Jayhawks must contain QB Donovan Smith, a transfer from Texas Tech. He threw for more than 2,800 yards and 22 touchdowns, and ran for 428 yards and six touchdowns, last year ... while also tossing 13 interceptions.

KU can force him into mistakes. The Cougars should be better than they were last year, but KU should still win this one.

Prediction: Kansas (7-0)

Game 8 at Kansas State

This game is poised to be the most challenging on KU’s schedule. And the Jayhawks must face their biggest rival on the road.

KU hasn’t beaten K-State since 2009, so that’s 15 straight years of losing.

The Jayhawks have an excellent chance of beating the Wildcats this season, but a lot must go right in order for that to happen. For starters, KU’s defense must contain QB Avery Johnson’s scrambling ability.

Because this game is on the road, I give the Wildcats the edge.

Prediction: Kansas State (KU, 7-1)

Game 9 vs. Iowa State

The Jayhawks come off their second bye week and face Iowa State at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

If there’s one thing we know about Cyclones fans, it’s that they travel well. I expect to see plenty of Iowa State colors in the stands, so perhaps no real home-field advantage for KU.

I believe the Jayhawks will bounce back after a tough loss to K-State. Historically, Leipold-coached teams have played very well after a week off — KU beat OU in that scenario last season.

Give me Kansas in this one.

Prediction: Kansas (8-1)

Game 10 at BYU

The Jayhawks will travel west to face Big 12 newcomer BYU in Provo, Utah.

The Cougars are plenty experienced and should be a good defensive team, but their offense is a significant question mark. The key for KU will be winning the turnover battle. Last season, the Cougars were 0-6 in games with multiple turnovers.

I don’t think BYU’s offense can keep up with KU.

Prediction: Kansas (9-1)

Game 11 vs. Colorado

This might be the most exciting game of the year. Colorado is brimming with talent and personality, from coach Deion Sanders, to his son and star quarterback Shedeur Sanders, to others like receiver/corner Travis Hunter.

The Buffaloes’ weakness? Their offensive and defensive lines aren’t great. That could be the difference in this game.

Prediction: Kansas (10-1)

Game 12 at Baylor

The Jayhawks will end their regular season in Waco, Texas.

Not only is that a tough place to play, the Bears have some continuity from last year’s offense: Their top five receivers from last season have returned this fall.

New is QB Dequan Finn, a three-year starter and MAC Player of the Year at Toledo. He threw for 22 TDs and 2,600 yards a year ago. The Bears should also be improved defensively after finishing with one of the worst units in the Big 12 last year.

I like Kansas here. Baylor’s defense might be better, but better won’t be enough to stop KU.

Prediction: Kansas

Final record: 11-1