Yahoo Sports Game-by-game picks: In an expanded SEC, might Kentucky football be the surprise team?
This is the challenge that the new and expanded Southeastern Conference presents for Mark Stoops and the 2024 Kentucky Wildcats:
In the scheduling revamp that accompanied the arrivals of Oklahoma and Texas into the SEC, UK gave up games with the teams projected in the SEC preseason media poll to finish sixth (at Missouri), 14th (at Arkansas) and 15th (Mississippi State) in the league.
The Wildcats added games with the teams projected to finish second (Texas), fourth (Mississippi) and 10th (Auburn).
Only four SEC teams — Florida, Georgia, Mississippi and Texas — return the same head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators and starting quarterback that they had last season.
Kentucky must play all four.
So if Stoops and troops are going to exceed the 7-5 rut they have fallen into the past two regular seasons, they will do so by surmounting a formidable schedule.
Are the Cats up to that challenge? Below is a game-by-game projection of Kentucky’s 2024 football season:
Southern Mississippi
When and where: Aug. 31 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Brock Vandagriff and the Kentucky offense get off to a rousing start against a Southern Miss defense that finished last season No. 109 in the FBS in total defense.
The nope: Southern Mississippi channels the magic of 2016, when the Golden Eagles rallied from 35-17 down at halftime to stun Kentucky 44-35 in the season opener in Lexington.
The scope: Kentucky 42, Southern Mississippi 10.
South Carolina
When and where: Sept. 7 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Kentucky is 24-2 in the second game on its schedule since 1998 and has won three of the past four such games against conference opponents.
The nope: Shane Beamer has eight defensive starters back from the unit that held UK to 122 rushing yards last season — and the proficiency of Kentucky’s ground attack entering 2024 looms as a major unknown.
The scope: Kentucky 24, South Carolina 19.
Georgia
When and where: Sept. 14 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Former Georgia Bulldogs Brock Vandagriff and Jamon Dumas-Johnson instill belief in their new teammates that the the Cats can snap their 14-game losing streak against the Dawgs.
The nope: Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs have won their last 15 true road games — and Georgia has not lost in Lexington since 2006.
The scope: Georgia 24, Kentucky 16.
Ohio
When and where: Sept. 21 at Kroger Field.
The hope: For UK, Ohio is a potential trap game slated between league meetings with No. 1 Georgia and No. 6 Mississippi. Nevertheless, an SEC football program should be able to handle a MAC foe that returns only six starters (two offense, four defense) from last season’s 10-3 team.
The nope: In the Mark Stoops coaching era, Kentucky is 3-8 in the game that immediately follows Georgia on the Wildcats’ schedule.
The scope: Kentucky 38, Ohio 9.
Mississippi
When and where: Sept. 28 in Oxford, Miss.
The hope: Having already played two SEC games, UK is better prepared for a league contest than is Ole Miss — which will enter the game off nonconference tilts versus Furman, Middle Tennessee State, at Wake Forest and Georgia Southern.
The nope: Lane Kiffin has Kentucky’s number. Kiffin is 3-0 against UK with two wins in overtime plus a three-point victory when a potential game-winning Wildcats touchdown inside the final minute was called back by penalty.
The scope: Kentucky 31, Mississippi 30.
Vanderbilt
When and where: Oct. 12 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Mark Stoops convinces the Cats the game is in Nashville. In its last four meetings against Vanderbilt in Music City, Kentucky is 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 22.75 points a game. Conversely, in the last four contests with Vandy in Lexington, UK is 3-1 with no win of more than seven points.
The nope: Bringing a 9-27 overall record into his fourth season as Vanderbilt coach, Clark Lea has brought the estimable Jerry Kill on as “chief advisor to the head coach.” Kill is such an accomplished football mind, he coached longtime pigskin laggard New Mexico State (10-5) to a 10-win season last year, the school’s first double digit-victory season since 1960 (11-0).
The scope: Kentucky 35, Vanderbilt 24.
Florida
When and where: Oct. 19 in Gainesville, Fla.
The hope: After losing to Florida every year from 1987 through 2017, Kentucky has now won three in a row and four out of six overall over UF.
The nope: Florida will have the extra motivation of trying to snap “The Streak” in its series with Kentucky.
The scope: Florida 26, Kentucky 23.
Auburn
When and where: Oct. 26 at Kroger Field.
The hope: After having gone 1-3 in SEC home games the past two seasons, UK feels extra urgency to protect Kroger Field in the SEC swing games.
The nope: Since beating Auburn 17-7 in 1966 at Stoll Field, Kentucky has lost 18 of its 19 subsequent games with the Tigers.
The scope: Kentucky 24, Auburn 21.
Tennessee
When and where: Nov. 2 in Knoxville, Tenn.
The hope: Kentucky almost has to play better than it did on its last trip to Neyland Stadium — a 44-6 shellacking administered by the Volunteers to the Wildcats in 2022.
The nope: UK is 1-18 vs. UT in Knoxville since winning there in 1984. Since Josh Heupel brought his frenetic-paced offensive attack to Tennessee three seasons ago, the Vols are averaging 40.67 points a game against the Cats.
The scope: Tennessee 35, Kentucky 21.
Murray State
When and where: Nov. 16 at Kroger Field.
The hope: As Kentucky’s coach, Mark Stoops has never lost (10-0) to a Football Championship Subdivision opponent.
The nope: The Racers are extra motivated to go against Dean Hood, the former Murray State coach (2019-23) who is now the director of player development at Kentucky.
The scope: Kentucky 59, Murray State 7.
Texas
When and where: Nov. 23 in Austin, Texas.
The hope: With Texas coming off a road game at ancient rival Arkansas the week prior to meeting Kentucky and facing a road game at ancient rival Texas A&M the week after, the Longhorns overlook UK.
The nope: The last time a Steve Sarkisian-designed offense went against Kentucky, the Longhorns head man was the offensive coordinator at Alabama and the Crimson Tide hung 63 points and 509 yards on the Wildcats.
The scope: Texas 38, Kentucky 20.
Louisville
When and where: Nov. 30 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Having won five straight and six of seven on-the-field matchups against Louisville (UK’s 52-21 win over the Cardinals in 2021 was subsequently vacated by the NCAA due to rules violations), Stoops and troops keep doing what they do.
The nope: In the modern Governor’s Cup rivalry (since 1994), Louisville has fared far better in Lexington (10-6 vs. UK) than in The Ville (5-8).
The scope: Kentucky 35, Louisville 30.
Final Kentucky record
8-4 overall and 4-4 in the SEC.
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