Yahoo Sports Future Rankings: Which teams will accomplish the most in the next five years?
Parity in the NBA is as high as it’s been in recent memory with many teams going all-in right now. A lot of them could fail to meet lofty expectations but could still put together multiple winning seasons and playoff series victories.
With the league as competitive as it is now, we decided to introduce the Future Rankings, where we rank each team based on how successful we expect them to be over the next five seasons.
Boston Celtics
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POSITIVES
* They have an All-NBA, MVP candidate, and star in Jayson Tatum, who is just 25 years old. They also have one of the best co-stars in Jaylen Brown who could probably lead his own team.
* They have a deep rotation (featuring Tatum, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Robert Williams III) all under team control.
* Aggressive and pragmatic front office willing to pay high prices for players that fit their mold.
* Enough draft picks to continue to upgrade the roster.
* Ownership has shown a willingness to go deep into the tax ($65 million penalty this season).
PITFALLS
* Brown can leave in free agency, extension limits would need to increase to secure his future now.
* Robert Williams‘ knee issues are already plaguing the team.
* The squad will get even more expensive quickly. Just how much more is ownership willing to spend two years from now?
* Yet to be prove if Joe Mazzulla is a good playoff coach.
Milwaukee Bucks
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POSITIVES
* They have the best player in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo, still in his prime presently and under team control through 2026.
* Elite defensive team led by Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez.
* Arguably the best Big 4 in the league with Antetokounmpo, Holiday, Lopez, and Khris Middleton.
* Ownership willing to spend into the tax ($78 million this season).
PITFALLS
* Unclear how much longer Antetokounmpo can sustain this elite level of play (currently at age 28 season).
* They are hampered by the Stepien rule having traded so many picks, limiting potential trade packages.
* Milwaukee is not a free-agency destination. That Lopez is the best free-agent signing in franchise history says it all.
* They have one of the older cores in the league. Their window could end quicker than anticipated.
* No young players to look forward to post-Antetokounmpo.
Denver Nuggets
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POSITIVES
* They have a perennial MVP candidate in Nikola Jokic and he’s locked in through 2028.
* One of the best offensive teams in the league led by Jokic and Jamal Murray.
* Good front office that identifies core players correctly and drafts well on the margins.
PITFALLS
* Jokic’s defensive deficiencies could hamper them in the playoffs. Team defense in general could limit their ceiling in the postseason.
* Michael Porter Jr.’s injury history makes his contract unfavorable.
* They’re hampered by Stepien complications. They can’t make any major trades anytime soon with three outgoing future first-round picks.
* Ownership has not shown a willingness to go deep into the tax. This could cost them opportunities to add major contributors in the future.
Memphis Grizzlies
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POSITIVES
* They have one of the youngest cores among current contenders with a long window.
* They have All-Stars in Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. under team control. They can secure Desmond Bane to a long-term deal this summer. He’s also an All-Star caliber player.
* Great front office with an impeccable draft record since 2019.
* They have plenty of trade ammo with eight first-round picks over the next seven drafts to upgrade the roster.
* The franchise is owned by one of the wealthiest guys in the league. Should be able to spend deep into the luxury tax.
* Great head coach in Taylor Jenkins.
PITFALLS
* Morant’s style of play may not be conducive to a long, healthy career. His off-the-court issues are also limiting his availability.
* They could have a hard time attracting free agents in a small market.
Philadelphia 76ers
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POSITIVES
* They have one of the best players in the league in Joel Embiid who automatically gives them a chance at the title. He’s under contract through 2028.
* They have one of the best backcourts in the league behind James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and De’Anthony Melton.
* Savvy and aggressive front office that does well building a competitive roster around the margins.
* Owned by one the richest owners in the league who should be able to spend deep into the luxury tax.
PITFALLS
* Embiid’s early injury history makes for uncertainty about the longevity of his prime.
* Either Harden leaves this summer, or they re-sign him to a maximum-level deal that could become negative value on the backend.
* They barely have any first or second-round picks to offer in a trade (several seconds were forfeited).
* Questionable track record in the playoffs for head coach Doc Rivers.
* They will severely lack cap flexibility for the foreseeable future once they presumably lock up Harden and Maxey.
Phoenix Suns
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POSITIVES
* They have two MVP-caliber players in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
* They have their Big 4 of Durant, Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Chris Paul under team control.
* Aggressive front office and ownership already willing to go deep into the tax.
* Proven coach in Monty Williams.
PITFALLS
* Durant and Paul are in their mid-to-late 30s, minimizing the Suns’ window to the next few seasons.
* They are locked into this group for better or worse with no assets left to upgrade the roster.
* Significant downside on the Durant trade if they have multiple bad seasons, potentially giving the Nets valuable picks. Durant has missed time with injuries over the past three seasons.
* Depth took a hit after the Durant trade with few players under contract beyond this season.
* No young player to look forward to after this window ends.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
POSITIVES
* One of the youngest cores among current contenders with a long window.
* All of Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen are under team control.
* Elite defensive foundation with more room to improve.
* Owned by one the wealthiest owners in the league who has spent deep in the luxury tax in the past.
PITFALLS
* They have limited cap flexibility going forward, improvements will be marginal from here on out.
* They are out of trade assets after acquiring Mitchell to make significant improvements outside of their Big 4.
* Huge downside risk from the Mitchell trade, especially if he leaves in 2025.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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POSITIVES
* They have a potential future MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under contract through 2027.
* They have a promising young core in Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddey, all on their rookie deals.
* They have plenty of flexibility to use maximum cap space in one of the upcoming summers.
* Great front office with an excellent draft record since beginning the rebuild.
* More than enough trade ammo for a star with 15 first-round picks over the next seven drafts.
* Underrated head coach in Mark Daignault.
PITFALLS
* It’s unclear if they have a second All-Star between their young guys, but there’s a good chance at least one of them pans out to become one.
* They could end up with a suboptimal value for future picks with future roster crunches.
* They could have a hard time attracting free agents in a small market.
Golden State Warriors
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
POSITIVES
* They have one of the best players and shooters in Stephen Curry who instantly makes them a title contender.
* They typically have a great defense led by Draymond Green.
* Curry, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins are all under team control.
* They have all but one of their first-round picks over the next seven drafts, giving them more trade ammo than most think.
* Ownership has gone the deepest into the tax ever ($176 million this season).
* Strong history of attracting free agents (Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala)
PITFALLS
* Old core with a limited window over the next few years.
* “Two-timeline” plan not looking good. Their future post-Curry, Thompson, and Green is unclear.
* Green could walk this summer, which would likely decimate their window.
* Many misses in the draft but have still gotten some gems in recent memory.
Dallas Mavericks
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POSITIVES
* They have of the best young superstars in Luka Doncic who gives the Mavericks a higher ceiling in the playoffs.
* Ownership has a history of going deep into the tax.
PITFALLS
* They have very few core players outside of Doncic and Kyrie Irving, many of which are earning large undesirable salaries.
* Expensive team projected to go deep into the tax, severely limiting future flexibility.
* They’re limited to just two tradeable first-round picks to improve the roster over the next two seasons.
* Mostly bad recent draft history outside of Doncic, Jalen Brunson, and Josh Green. They don’t have much youth to look forward to.
* Horrible free agency history.
Los Angeles Clippers
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
POSITIVES
* They have a great All-Star duo in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George under contract through at least 2024.
* They have arguably the deepest collection of talent on paper ever, even if the results don’t reflect that.
* Good front office with solid draft record. Manages their long-term books well.
* They have the deepest pockets in the league. They’ll always pay top dollar for the right player and spend as much as needed to make the team as competitive as possible.
* They’ll always be in the trade market with their surplus of high-salaried moveable players.
* Proven playoff coach in Ty Lue.
PITFALLS
* Old core, their title window might end sooner than we think.
* They won’t have any cap flexibility as long as they have Leonard and George.
* They’re limited on returns in trades with only two first-round picks available to trade over the next two seasons.
*They don’t have a lot of young talent to look forward to aside from Terance Mann.
Orlando Magic
(Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
POSITIVES
* They have two young cornerstones in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, both on rookie contracts.
* Strong overall young core that appears primed to make a playoff push next season.
* Great front office that has received optimal value in recent trades and excellent recent draft record.
* They have a ton of cap flexibility going forward. They can have max cap space in any of the next few upcoming summers.
* They have plenty of trade ammo for a star with eight first-round picks over the next seven drafts.
PITFALLS
* They could have a hard time attracting free agents in a small market.
* It’s unclear if ownership is willing to go deep into the tax.
* Jamahl Mosley has been a good development coach. Will he make the transition to being a competitive coach?
New Orleans Pelicans
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POSITIVES
* They have a dominant All-NBA level young star in Zion Williamson who has raised the team’s floor and ceiling.
* They have Williamson, All-Star Brandon Ingram, and young studs in Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, and Jose Alvarado under team control.
* Great front office with a strong draft record since 2019.
* They can easily acquire the next available star. They have 10 first-round picks over the next 7 drafts to play with.
PITFALLS
* Williamson’s health has already hampered his availability. Could his body deteriorate earlier than anticipated?
* They could have a hard time attracting free agents in a small market.
* They are out of flexibility after locking up most of the core. The roster will get expensive soon.
* Unclear if ownership is willing to go deep into the tax (the team has never been in the tax).
Miami Heat
Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
POSITIVES
* They have a high playoff ceiling behind Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both locked up through 2026.
* Great front office with a great draft record at any spot.
* They are the best organization in the league at identifying undrafted players who become rotation players for cheap.
* Aggressive on the trade market and have enough trade ammo to bring in a significant upgrade.
* They have one of the best and most proven coaches in Erik Spoelstra.
* Ownership has a history of going deep into the tax.
* Strong free agency history.
PITFALLS
* They could be limited in potential future trades with several bad contracts they’d ideally want to send out.
* They don’t have a lot of young talent to look forward to outside of Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
New York Knicks
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POSITIVES
* They have a strong core for the present along with many young players already contributing with room to grow.
* Great front office with a good draft record and excellent salary cap management.
* They have plenty of trade ammo for the next available star with 12 first-round picks over the next seven drafts.
* Very good head coach in Tom Thibodeau.
PITFALLS
* Unless they get a superstar, it’s possible they may have locked themselves to a sustainable winning team that won’t be a true title contender.
* Mixed free agency history, haven’t had as much success as they’d hoped.
Utah Jazz
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POSITIVES
* Excellent front office with a history of making good draft selections and getting optimal value in trades.
* Fifteen first-round picks over the next seven drafts, giving them many chances to draft future core players.
* Lots of cap flexibility, they could have two max slots in the 2024 offseason.
* New ownership that has already shown a willingness to go deep into the tax.
* Early returns on head coach Will Hardy are great.
PITFALLS
* They still don’t have any young cornerstones, but that could change after this year’s upcoming draft.
* They could have a hard time attracting free agents in a small market.
Toronto Raptors
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POSITIVES
* They have a strong core with good role players and All-Star-level players.
* They have a young cornerstone in Scottie Barnes on his rookie deal.
* Great front office with an excellent draft record with low selections.
* Aggressive on the trade market with six first-round picks over the next seven drafts to upgrade the roster.
* Ownership has gone deep into tax when it mattered ($25 million payment in championship season).
* Proven head coach in Nick Nurse.
PITFALLS
* They could run into major roster construction issues with so many players due for significant raises soon.
* They don’t have high-end star power, it’s unclear if Barnes will become that level of player.
* No good free agency history.
Sacramento Kings
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POSITIVES
* They have an exciting young core with a long window for sustainable success.
* Very good head coach in Mike Brown who has gotten the most out of this roster.
* Solid front office that has drafted well and built a winning basketball team for the present.
* They have plenty of trade ammo with six first-round picks over the next seven drafts to upgrade the roster.
PITFALLS
* No high-end star power, their ceiling could be limited in the playoffs.
* Domantas Sabonis can leave in 2024 free agency. Extension limits would need to increase to secure his future earlier.
* They could have a hard time attracting free agents in a small market.
* Unclear if ownership is willing to go into the tax.
Atlanta Hawks
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
POSITIVES
* They have one of the best offensive stars in Trae Young who is vital to Atlanta’s success.
* Front office generally drafts well. They have a lot of intriguing pieces to look forward to in Onyeka Okungwu, AJ Griffin, and Saddiq Bey.
* They just added one of the best head coaches in the league in Quin Snyder.
PITFALLS
* They have very few core players outside of Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and DeAndre Hunter.
* There’s already speculation of Young’s future in Atlanta.
* Brand new, unproven front office.
* Expensive team projected to go deep into the tax soon, severely limiting future flexibility.
* Limited to just two tradeable first-round picks to improve the roster over the next two seasons.
Brooklyn Nets
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POSITIVES
* Good front office with a history of navigating rebuilds while out several of their own future first-round picks.
* Eleven first-round picks over the next seven drafts, giving them enough ammo to reshape the roster and acquire a new star.
* Lots of flexibility, they have plenty of moveable salaries for trade, and could have maximum cap space in the 2025 offseason.
* Owners are willing to be taxpayers, they have gone deep into the tax for three seasons in a row.
* Good head coach in Jacque Vaughn who has helped the team succeed amid internal turmoil.
* Free agent destination (Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving).
PITFALLS
* No star power or clear future cornerstone at the moment.
* No blue-chip prospects to look forward to.
* The James Harden trade put them in a disadvantageous position. They cannot bottom out now during this transition period.
* Three stars asking out within a year may suggest some level of organizational instability.
Indiana Pacers
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POSITIVES
* They have a franchise cornerstone in Tyrese Haliburton on his rookie deal. He seems on track to earn All-NBA honors.
* Good front office with a consistent draft record that often puts together rosters that exceed expectations.
* They have nine first-round picks over the next seven drafts.
* They have a ton of cap flexibility and could have max space over the next two offseasons.
* Proven veteran head coach in Rick Carlisle who has already gotten this young team to play above expectations.
PITFALLS
* Organization has never been patient enough to undergo a full rebuild. They could try to speed up their timeline and be competitive very soon.
* They could have a hard time attracting free agents in a small market.
* Ownership’s willingness to go into the tax is unclear.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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POSITIVES
* They have a franchise cornerstone and potential superstar in Anthony Edwards, who is on his rookie deal.
* They have one of the best four-man lineups over the next few years featuring Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Jaden McDaniels.
* Chris Finch has been a stabilizing force for the organization.
PITFALLS
* They can only make marginal improvements going forward with Stepien rule complications because of the Gobert trade.
* The Gobert deal has a major downside if they don’t become a contender. They could be forced to trade one of their core players to recoup lost value if things don’t work out.
* They could have a hard time attracting free agents in a small market.
* Team will get extremely expensive assuming they extend both Edwards and McDaniels.
Los Angeles Lakers
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POSITIVES
* They have two dominant superstars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis under team control.
* They have a great history of attracting all-time greats in free agency or through a leveraged trade.
* Ownership has a history of going deep into the tax.
PITFALLS
* No blue-chip prospects to look forward to post-James/Davis.
* Questionable organizational decision-making at identifying players of need (Russell Westbrook trade).
* Poor history of player development with many prospects flourishing on new teams.
* No players other than James and Davis are under contract past 2024. Both players’ exorbitant salaries prevent the team from having maximum cap space.
* Ownership’s willingness to go deep into the repeater tax is unclear.
Chicago Bulls
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
POSITIVES
* They have a good collection of players in their starting five who all hold positive trade value.
* Good head coach in Billy Donovan.
* Solid free agency destination history (Carlos Boozer, Dwyane Wade).
PITFALLS
* Locked into a decent but not great core over the next few years, largely thanks to the sunk cost of multiple future outgoing first-round picks.
* Organization appears impatient to take steps back to properly build a contender after rushing team construction through aggressive trades.
* No cap flexibility in the near future, leaving them with few avenues to make significant improvements on the current roster.
* No high-end star power and no great talented young prospects to look forward to.
Portland Trail Blazers
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POSITIVES
* Damian Lillard is still in his prime and playing at a Top 10 level. He still holds a ton of trade value.
* Good foundational pieces in Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe.
* They have seven first-round picks over the next seven drafts. They could get in the mix for a trade for an All-Star.
PITFALLS
* High salaries to starters force them to field a roster with many low-salaried, end-of-rotation players. It’s also forced them to tread the tax recently, and avoiding it has been a chore.
* Overall direction may not be sound. They want to remain competitive with Lillard but their best path forward may be trading him and entering a rebuild.
* No history of landing top free agents.
San Antonio Spurs
Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
POSITIVES
* They have a young roster filled with many good rotation players like Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Jeremy Sochan.
* One of the best organizations in the league, particularly for player development. They have been consistently good for over two decades.
* They’re not a top free agency destination but have had success in the past (LaMarcus Aldridge).
* One of the best head coaches in Gregg Popovich who has transitioned to being a great developmental coach. Even after coaching, he could still provide a positive impact on the organization.
* They have a shot at a top selection in this year’s draft (Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson)
PITFALLS
* No blue-chip prospects to look forward to right now, but that could change after this year’s draft.
* They have 12 first-round picks over the next seven drafts. They will have plenty of bites at the apple to draft players for the next great Spurs team.
* One of the least talented rosters in the league. They could be bottom dwellers for at least the next two seasons.
* Ownership doesn’t have a history of going deep into the tax, but that’s mostly because of excellent cap management. It’s unclear if that could change when it’s time to contend.
Detroit Pistons
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POSITIVES
* Good collection of young players like Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, including a potential All-NBA guard in Cade Cunningham.
*Lots of cap flexibility. They have had significant cap space over the last three years and could still have it over the next two.
*In position to have a guaranteed Top 5-6 selection in this year’s draft.
PITFALLS
* Unclear team direction or roster-building philosophy. The front office often targets players they like regardless of fit issues.
* They invest in players who were highly regarded prospects but flamed out early way too often. They may not be ready to take the next step toward competing, especially with their lack of prioritization of fielding shooting.
* Ownership’s willingness to go deep into the tax is unclear.
* Not a free agency destination.
Charlotte Hornets
Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports
POSITIVES
* They have an offensive star in LaMelo Ball who can be locked up this summer with a maximum extension.
* They have the flexibility to operate as a cap space team. They have many players on rookie deals to help maximize space.
* They have a shot at a top selection in this year’s draft (Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson)
PITFALLS
* Poor draft history spanning over a decade. They have missed on a lot of lottery selections recently as well.
* Organization appears impatient to take steps back to properly build a contender. The Gordon Hayward signing was a step in the wrong direction.
* They have a history of overpaying role players after mild success like a playoff appearance, destroying future flexibility.
* Ownership’s willingness to go deep into the tax is unclear (have never been taxpayers).
* Not a free agency destination.
Houston Rockets
(AP Photo/Michael Wyke)
POSITIVES:
* They have a good collection of young players. Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., and Alperen Sengun all have a lot of potential.
* Front office has a solid track record in extracting value in trades. The James Harden trade is looking better as time passes (three unprotected first-round picks and four pick swaps).
* They have eight first-round picks over the next seven drafts. They could make a significant trade if they’re ready to compete soon.
* In a position to have a guaranteed Top 5-6 selection in this year’s draft.
* They have the most upcoming cap flexibility in the league. Could have $60 million in space this summer.
* Solid free agency destination history, could bring back Harden this summer.
PITFALLS
* Some public concerns about the organization’s culture and its decision-making.
* One of the least talented rosters in the league. They might not be ready to make a playoff push even if they add talented veterans this summer.
* Coaching hasn’t looked promising, but that could be changed if they go in a different direction.
* No player has stuck out as a potential franchise player yet.
* Ownership has taken aggressive steps to avoid the tax while they were still contenders, suggesting they may never intend on becoming taxpayers.
Washington Wizards
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
POSITIVES
*They have a solid trio in Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyle Kuzma. Health has been a question with these players but they’ve been respectable when together.
*They have six of their own first-round picks over the next seven drafts. They could get in the mix for another All-Star that becomes available.
PITFALLS
* The organization refuses to enter a rebuild. They prefer to remain as competitive as possible and tread mediocrity, further delaying long-term progress. It’s possible they may have missed a window to extract optimal value in a Beal trade.
* Poor recent draft history. They have had five consecutive Top 15 selections and haven’t selected a single impactful starter-level player. No prospects to look forward to.
* History of overpaying players, destroying their future cap flexibility and constantly keeping them on their heels to stay below the tax.
* Ownership’s willingness to go deep into the tax is unclear.
* They’re not a free agency destination.
