Fresno State and Pac-12 look for answers after some bad losses. Here’s what’s next

The rebuild of the Pac-12 Conference, which includes Fresno State, has reached a “what’s next?” stage after it whiffed on poaching several teams from the American Athletics Conference.

It did land Utah State from the Mountain West. With seven teams now, it’s still one short of the eight needed to qualify as a FBS (football bowl subdivision) conference. But there is a more pressing question for the Bulldogs: Is the university’s lack of investment in football catching up to them at absolutely the wrong time?

Fresno State absorbed a thorough 59-14 beating on Saturday by UNLV, one of seven schools to sign a grant of media rights with the Mountain West and commit to the conference through the end of June 2032.

The Bulldogs were not close, in any phase of the game. They also are not close in a metric that will matter in the Pac-12: Its financial commitment to the program.

Fresno State from 2019 to 2023 increased its investment in football by just $100,000, going from $16.8 million to $16.9 million. In contrast, UNLV over the same period increased its spending on football by more than $8 million, moving from $10.2 million to $18.7 million, according to the Knight-Newhouse College Athletics Database, which tracks NCAA revenues and expenses.

The Bulldogs are the only team among seven tied to the Pac-12 rebuild that has not increased football spending by $2 million or more over that period, and many in the Mountain West have invested as well, though none as much as the Rebels.

• Utah State: +$7.5 million, 57% increase

• Oregon State: +$6.3 million, 31%

• Colorado State: +$4.7 million, 19%

• San Diego State: +$3.3 million, 20%

• Washington State: +$3.2 million, 15%

• Boise State: +$2 million, 10%

• Fresno State: +$100,000, 0%

The Bulldogs have won a lot of football games in that stretch, including a Mountain West championship in 2022 under coach Jeff Tedford. Coaching has played a big part in that, as has geography and being in the middle of a state that produces a high number of FBS-level football players.

But Fresno State in the Mountain West also matches up against a number of programs where reaching and sustaining football success is elusive for a variety of reasons: New Mexico, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State. In a rebuilt Pac-12, is Fresno State one of those teams?

Sorting through other questions for the Bulldogs, and the Pac-12 …

So who is in Pac-12 and whos is out?

The Pac-12 and Mountain West have seven and six full-time members and are short of the eight required to qualify as a FBS conference.

The Pac-12: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah State and Washington State.

The Mountain West: Air Force, Hawaii (football only), Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV and Wyoming.

Oversized expectations?

The Bulldogs and their new best pals still are in the best position to land a credible media rights deal — the Pac-12 has the bigger brands and larger media markets than the Mountain West, and it has proven that it can draw the eyeballs in at least some of them.

But the face plant across the country, failing to land Memphis, Tulane, South Florida or Texas-San Antonio, for now at least, brings up an interesting question on expectations when the Pac-12 does get around to shopping its media rights. As one media rights insider pointed out when the Pac-12 made its initial move to rebuild the league, oversized expectations cratered what at one time was known as the Conference of Champions.

The Pac-12 in 2022 had an offer of $30 million per school from ESPN, but the university presidents in the conference countered for considerably more, reportedly $50 million.

That was the end of that and before long UCLA and USC were bolting for the Big Ten and were followed by Oregon and Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah, and then Cal and Stanford, leaving behind Oregon State and Washington State.

Does the failure to land the teams from the AAC suggest the Pac-12 has an unrealistic view of its brand, as it is now constructed? And, what is the value of a conference with the Pac-12 leftovers paired with Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Utah State and at least one team to be named later?

That is to be determined, obviously.

But, it’s worth noting, in three of the first four weeks of the college football season the most-watched games in the late-night window on Nielsen-rated networks involved teams from the Big 12 or Atlantic Coast Conference.

Fresno State and Michigan drew 2.56 million viewers, but the Bulldogs’ games against New Mexico State and New Mexico had only 64,000 and 55,000 on TruTV, according to Sports Media Watch.

Pac-12 sues Mountain West

The Pac-12 filed a complaint last Tuesday against the Mountain West over a poaching penalty that was included in a scheduling agreement between the conferences. Oregon State and Washington State this season are playing one game against a Mountain West program, which will not count in its standings.

Fresno State is playing the Cougars on Oct. 12, as part of that agreement.

The penalty, $10 million per school, was to act as a barrier, preventing the Pac-12 from adding Mountain West programs in its rebuild. It didn’t work, obviously.

The suit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, claims the poaching penalty is unlawful in that it violates the state’s unfair competition law.

Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez was not pleased.

“The Pac-12 Conference is challenging contractual provision that it expressly agreed to and acknowledged was essential to the Mountain West Conference’s willingness to enter into a scheduling agreement, all while advised by legal counsel,” Nevarez said, in a statement from the conference.

“The provision was put in place to protect the Mountain West Conference from this exact scenario. It was obvious to us and everyone across the country that the remaining members of the Pac-12 were going to try to rebuild. The fees at issue were included to ensure the future viability of the Mountain West and allow our member institutions to continue providing critical resources and opportunities for our student-athletes. At no point in the contracting process did the Pac-12 contend that the agreement that it freely entered into violated any laws.”

The poaching penalty is separate from conference exit fees, which will run each of the five schools leaving the Mountain West around $17 million.

What’s next for conferences?

The Mountain West reportedly has an offer in front of Texas State, a Sun Belt school with a large undergraduate enrollment and a football budget that fits in the conference. At $13.1 million, the Bobcats football spending last year was in line with most of the Mountain West: UNLV ($18.9 million), Wyoming ($14.2), Hawaii ($14.0), Nevada ($13.2), New Mexico ($11.5), Air Force ($11.3) and San Jose State ($10.9).

The Pac-12 needs to find answers. It could go back to Memphis and Tulane with a better deal, but it must also weigh its media rights valuation against increased travel costs, especially for non-revenue Olympic sports.

Memphis athletics director Ed Scott appeared open to entertaining another offer during a news conference last week, but Scott also made it clear that the Pac-12 was well short in its attempt to pry the Tigers from the AAC.

Scott said the Pac-12 was offering $2.5 million toward conference exit fees that could run to $25 million, and only a “speculative” media rights deal.

“So, we’ve done the math on this,” Scott said, in the Memphis Commercial Appeal. “If we owe $25 million (in exit fees), which is precedent by SMU (when it left for the ACC) . . . if it’s $25 million to get out, we’re getting offered $2.5 (million), that still leaves a gap of $22.5 million, OK?. If we’re talking about a five-year deal to get through 2031 . . . that still leaves you $22.5 million you’ve got to pay back over five years.

“And there’s another piece of the deal, without putting all of the information out there, part of the deal was that two of the schools — and you can figure out who those were — would be able to keep all of the College Football Playoff annual distribution money.”

Scott also mentioned added travel costs.

“Travel-wise, it would be about 20,000 miles that our teams would have to travel in order to compete with the seven schools that are in there,” he said. “And that’s if everything was a direct flight. Do you know how far it is to go around the circumference of the Earth? Just under 25,000 miles. I just don’t think that was the right thing to do based on the finances we had. Now, if there was more money involved . . . that’s a different conversation.”