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Four reasons preseason Top 25 Texas has underachieved this season
It was only two months ago that Texas was projected third in the Big 12’s preseason poll. Now the Longhorns look more likely to finish in the league’s bottom three instead.
Texas fell to 6-6 on Tuesday night with a ghastly 63-58 home loss to Kent State, which had not previously beaten a top 200 KenPom team this year. All six of the Longhorns losses have now come against teams outside the AP Top 25, a list that includes setbacks against Northwestern, Colorado, Texas Arlington, Michigan, Arkansas and now the Golden Flashes.
With no KenPom top 60 wins on its resume and nothing but KenPom top 60 opponents left on its schedule, Texas appears unlikely to turn this season around and make an NCAA tournament push. Below are four reasons the preseason No. 21 Longhorns are struggling more than expected after losing six of their top eight players from Shaka Smart’s debut season:
1. Texas has no point guard
When Isaiah Taylor turned pro last spring without much hope of being selected in the NBA draft, it left Texas without a point guard capable of creating for himself and his teammates. Smart asked sophomore Kerwin Roach and freshman Andrew Jones to try to compensate, but both lack the passing ability and court vision to distribute for their teammates.
The result is a Texas offense prone to periods of stagnancy, flurries of turnovers and prolonged scoring droughts. The Longhorns are 300th nationally in assists per made basket. In their six losses, they have 54 assists and 85 turnovers.
The lack of a point guard was glaring down the stretch Tuesday night as Texas tried in vain to rally from a late deficit. Too many times Roach, Jones or Eric Davis would dribble into the teeth of the defense and either turn the ball over or force up a shot in traffic, none more egregious than Texas’ final possession when Davis tried to get to the rim and had his shot swatted away by Kent State’s Jimmy Hall. The Texas guards also struggle to get the ball to top big man Jarrett Allen in positions where he likes to score.
“We turned the ball over in situations where it’s really hard to defend against,” Smart said. “When you turn the ball over where the other team gets a layup or a dunk, there’s not much you can do defensively.”
2. Outside shooting is a glaring weakness
There’s a simple formula for beating Texas. Turn the Longhorns into a jump shooting team, and you’re probably going to win.
In 12 games this season, Texas is shooting well under 30 percent from behind the arc, among the worst in the nation. Only one player on Texas is a threat to win games with perimeter shots. Tevin Mack is shooting 40.6 percent from behind the arc, however, no other Longhorn is even sinking one third of his 3-point attempts.
When even Mack is missing, Texas is especially vulnerable. He was off the mark on all four of his attempts from behind the arc on Tuesday night as the Longhorns went 3-for-17 from 3-point range and endured a lengthy field goal drought midway through the second half during a 15-2 surge by the Golden Flashes.
3. So far HAVOC does not live here
With no point guard and a dearth of outside shooters, Smart wisely has been calling for more full-court pressure as another way to generate offense. Trouble is that Texas is nowhere near as good generating turnovers and transition layups out of their press as Smart’s best defensive teams at VCU were.
Texas is 161st nationally in forcing turnovers according to Ken Pomeroy, hardly reminiscent of the Rams’ teams led by Briante Weber or Darius Theus. Those VCU teams were first in the nation in percentage of turnovers forced from 2012-2014.
Even on nights when the Longhorns do force turnovers like Tuesday, their press still seems to lead to more easy buckets than it generates. Kent State benefited from a couple of key transition baskets in the final three minutes when Texas was trying desperately to rally.
4. Texas’ freshmen have been just OK — not spectacular.
In a year when almost all the most heralded freshmen have exceeded expectations, the Texas duo of Jarrett Allen and Andrew Jones have been the rare exception.
Allen has scored in double figures each of his past three games, but the 6-11 big man isn’t getting enough touches in the post, nor has he been active enough on the defensive glass. Jones is averaging almost 10 points per game, but both his assist-to-turnover ratio and his outside shooting have been erratic at best so far this season.
For Texas to get better over the course of Big 12 play, the Longhorns need those two freshmen’s flashes of brilliance to be less sporadic and more frequent. Mistakes from freshmen are to be expected, however, they stand out more than usual this season with the Longhorns underachieving and the rest of the 2016 class thriving.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
