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Four key questions before the selection committee reveals its top 16

Jeff Eisenberg
·Senior writer
Because of its lack of marquee wins, Wisconsin could be disappointed with its seed on Saturday. (AP)
Because of its lack of marquee wins, Wisconsin could be disappointed with its seed on Saturday. (AP)

At this time last year, Iowa was cruising toward a No. 1 seed and Wisconsin was projected to miss the NCAA tournament altogether.

By Selection Sunday, the Hawkeyes had faded to a No. 7 and the Badgers had surged to the same seed line.

The lesson here is that Saturday’s bracket preview show will provide just a snapshot — nothing more. When the selection committee unveils its first-ever in-season top 16 rankings, they’re sure to generate discussion and controversy, yet they’re ultimately not especially meaningful since teams still have a month of games left to play.

What will at least be somewhat instructive is the glimpse at how the committee assesses the nation’s elite teams to this point. Here’s a look at the four biggest questions entering Saturday’s first in-season bracket preview:

1. Who will the four No. 1 seeds be?

Even after two chaotic weeks rife with upsets, the race for a No. 1 seed still appears surprisingly clear-cut. Reigning national champ Villanova, unbeaten Gonzaga and Big 12 front runner Kansas and Baylor are each likely to appear on the top seed line Saturday afternoon.

Villanova (23-2) boasts 15 RPI top 100 victories including non-league wins over Virginia, Purdue and Notre Dame. Gonzaga (25-0) validates its blemish-free record with quality wins against Arizona, Florida, Saint Mary’s, Tennessee and Iowa State. Kansas (21-3) beat Duke and Kentucky in non-league play and stands alone atop the Big 12, while Baylor (21-3) boasts the most RPI top 50 victories of any team in the nation.

The teams with the best chance to overtake someone in that quartet by Selection Sunday hail from the ACC and Pac-12. An outright champion in this year’s loaded ACC would be hard to deny a No. 1 seed. Don’t rule out Arizona, Oregon or UCLA jumping up to the No. 1 seed line either should one of them sweep the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles.

2. Which conference will have the most teams among the top 16?

The ACC may not have a leading contender to be a No. 1 seed, but college basketball’s strongest league will be well represented Saturday. There could be up to five ACC teams in the top four seed lines — North Carolina, Louisville, Virginia, Florida State and Duke.

North Carolina, Louisville and Florida State each have a chance to snare a No. 2 seed, while Virginia projects as a No. 3. The wildcard is Duke, which may have done enough to climb back to the No. 4 line with its current four-game win streak punctuated by Thursday night’s victory over rival North Carolina.

It would be a surprise if any other conference put more than three teams in the top four seed lines. The Big 12 and Pac-12 could both have three apiece, while the Big East has an outside shot to match that if Butler and Creighton both landed No. 4 seeds.

3. Which teams’ seedings will vary most from their ranking in the AP poll?

Even though Wisconsin is No. 7 in the latest AP poll, the Badgers should not expect a No. 2 — or even a No. 3 — seed when the bracket preview is unveiled. They simply don’t have enough quality wins to merit that despite their gaudy 21-3 record.

Not a single team Wisconsin has beaten received votes in either the AP or Coaches poll this week. The Badgers swept fading Indiana, defeated Ohio State and Michigan at home and knocked off Marquette, Syracuse, Tennessee and Georgetown in non-league play. Some of those are good teams, but none are a lock to make the NCAA tournament yet.

In contrast to Wisconsin, Florida State figures to receive a better seed than its No. 14 ranking suggests. The Seminoles (21-4) boast nine victories over teams in the KenPom top 50 including home wins over Duke, Florida and Louisville and a massive road win at Virginia. That should land Florida State a No. 3 seed at worst — maybe even a No. 2.

4. Where will Duke and Kentucky be seeded?

For a team that has spent most of the season in the top 10, Kentucky’s resume isn’t especially impressive. The Wildcats (19-5) have dropped three of their last five games and are just 2-5 against the KenPom top 50, having beaten South Carolina at home and North Carolina on a neutral floor but lost to UCLA, Louisville, Kansas, Florida and Tennessee.

How the committee assesses that resume is important if only because Kentucky doesn’t have too many more chances to bolster it. Florida and Tennessee are the only two top 50 opponents the Wildcats face the rest of the regular season, giving them little chance of landing a No. 1 seed and leaving minimal margin for error if they’re going to climb back to a No. 2.

Meanwhile, Duke has been in a state of turmoil for months, yet the preseason No. 1 Blue Devils (19-5) may find themselves in decent position Saturday. They’re likely to appear somewhere in the top 16 Saturday thanks to marquee victories over Florida and North Carolina and solid wins against projected NCAA tournament teams Notre Dame, Miami and Rhode Island.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!