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Football 301 Playbook: Sights set on the HarBowl and how much-improved Chargers can challenge Ravens

Early downs will be crucial for the Chargers, who are punching above their weight under Jim Harbaugh — and face their stiffest test yet in John's Ravens

nate tice
Staff writer
·17 min read

John and Jim Harbaugh face off as the Ravens take on the Chargers in Los Angeles on Monday Night Football this week. (You can join me and fellow Yahoo Sports NFL writer Charles McDonald for the game in the new Discussion tool in the Yahoo Sports app. Here's how.)

The Chargers are surging behind disciplined and well-coached units on either side of the ball, while the Ravens are thriving with an explosive offense (that hit its yearly Steelers speed bump) and a defense that’s stout against the run but is susceptible to big plays through the air.

Heading full steam ahead into this season’s HarBowl (something we might get more frequently with both brothers now coaching teams in the AFC), I wanted to take this week’s Football 301 Playbook to break down the surprising Chargers and how their matchup with the Ravens looks this week.

I hope you’re sitting down when reading this, because what I’m about to say might be shocking: The Chargers under Jim Harbaugh like to run the ball and use play action.

Ol’ Jimmy and offensive coordinator Greg Roman aren’t exactly subverting their reputation in their first year in Los Angeles. The Chargers rank fifth in designed rush rate on early downs and have the highest rate of play action on early downs as well.

While this is Harbaugh’s (and the Harbaugh-adjacent Roman’s) tried and true formula, the Chargers haven’t exactly been effective when running the ball. They currently sit 30th in early down success rate on running back runs, with their 29.7% rate sitting well below the NFL’s average of 36.1% on such plays. Even if you look at splits between the halves of games or over the past six weeks, the Chargers still rank among the league’s worst in terms of success rate.

There have still been flashes with this run game in between their 1- and 2-yard ventures. A healthier J.K. Dobbins (who is facing his old team this game) has had some real flashes, popping big runs in key moments when the Chargers are closing out games in the second half. (While they haven’t been efficient, the Chargers do rank more in the middle of the pack in explosive RB runs this season, and eighth in explosive run rate in the second half of games.) This is a reminder of the talent of the oft-injured Dobbins and that there is still life with these runs as the game goes along.

It’s something that has popped in multiple Chargers games this year, including this past Sunday night against the Bengals as Dobbins delivered the knockout punch late in the fourth quarter.

This can lead to frustrating sequences for the Chargers, who rank 26th in average distance to go on third downs, and their all-world QB to overcome (more on him in a second), but it’s something I attribute more to their interior offensive line play than any particular bad play designs. Their run game is varied (a little more window dressing wouldn’t hurt), featuring plenty of gap schemes with pulling linemen and tight ends, often out of bigger personnel groupings.

There have been sequences in games where you can see the Chargers find a play that an opposing defense simply cannot stop, like running a zone play against the Titans over and over with their fullback/defensive lineman Scott Matlock leading the way. (Travis Hunter who?)

So, while I do have positives to say about the designs and intent, the truth is this offense still leaves Herbert in plenty of tough situations when the Chargers have to drop back and pass. And Herbert, despite statistics that are more middle of the road when looking league-wide, has been playing some of the best and most aggressive football of his career.

On early downs, the Chargers are able to stay explosive because of their steady diet of play-action concepts, with Herbert not shying away from launching throws to players like tight end Will Dissly — not exactly a burner — for touchdowns.

Play-action concepts that the Chargers feature naturally attack down the field, and Herbert has been seeking more downfield throws than ever but still without making mistakes (just one interception on the season so far). His air yards per pass attempt sits at 8.6, over a full yard more than his career average of 7.4 yards entering this season and tied for eighth (with Lamar Jackson) among all qualifying QBs this season.

These play-action concepts allow Herbert to show off his arm and ball placement. Every throw and part of the field is available to him on any type of concept. These help shore up a leaky interior offensive line as well as put less demands on pass catchers to win with their route running. Just get downfield and Justin will launch a laser into your facemask.

This newfound aggressive Justin Herbert has also shown up when he runs the ball. Herbert is scrambling more than ever, looking to make plays with his legs rather than check the ball down or try to find the “perfect” answer. His scramble rate of 6.3% would be a career high, according to NextGenStats, and sits above the league average. He’s also looking for explosive plays when he runs the ball. Whether it’s the fourth down designed run against the Titans or scrambling against the Bengals. Herbert wants to inflict damage as a runner. Which is a scary sight for defenders to see a 6-foot-6, nearly 240-pound human who can max out at over 20 mph coming at them.

This is Justin Herbert with a Jim Harbaugh symbiote attached to him. Herbert feels like he has a little more venom with his play this year. Gone are the quick game concepts from former OC Joe Lombardi that neutered Herbert’s S-tier arm talent. Instead, Herbert is seeking to push the ball whenever he can, even with less-than-ideal personnel around him. It’s not surprising that Herbert’s sack rate has jumped up a bit this season because of the asks of the offense, but his sack avoidance still remains one of his best attributes, and he continues to frustrate defenders with his ability to get throws off despite being in their grasp.

And when things aren’t clean (which they still aren’t a decent amount of the time), Herbert is still overcoming subpar circumstances to deliver big throws ...

... as well as maximizing the margins that he does get.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey has been exciting to watch, especially with the chemistry that he already has with Herbert. McConkey looks like a real deal No. 1 receiver who can win from the slot or on the outside (my pre-draft comparison for him was Emmanuel Sanders). McConkey is dealing with an injury this week, so it remains to be seen what his health is against the Ravens, but even the unwavering confidence that Herbert has with other players like Dissly and Quentin Johnston, who has greatly improved after his rough rookie year, has been showing up as well.

And not once did we ever hear about Justin Herbert’s high ankle sprain hindering his play. Funny how that only comes up with certain QBs.

The Ravens' defense will continue to be tough sledding for the Chargers on the ground. Baltimore is Guinness-like in its stoutness against the run, currently ranking second in EPA allowed per RB run while yielding the lowest explosive run rate in the NFL. The Ravens have only allowed six explosive runs (gains of 12 yards or more) this entire season. For comparison, the NFL average is 17.4 and the Commanders lead the league in this category with 29.

The Chargers are going to have to turn to those play-action concepts on early downs and Herbert hero ball on late downs. The Ravens are below-average defending early down play action and are overall susceptible to explosive plays through the air. Very susceptible, I should say; Baltimore currently allows the third-highest rate of explosive passes this season, often because of communication errors on the back end of their defense. The spine of the defense could even be further weakened if linebacker Roquan Smith doesn’t play. Smith has taken a step back this season, but him dealing with a hamstring injury and potentially missing this week could make this weakness even more glaring.

Harbaugh and Roman have an insistence to not mess with their run-first formula, which I get considering their personnel. But if there was a game to drop Herbert back more frequently and let him rip, this is it.

This side of the ball is a true strength-on-strength.

The Chargers' defense playing so well under Jesse Minter has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season. This unit ranks near the top of every metric you look at. And even despite facing several toothless offenses this season, it still ranks 10th in FTNFantasy’s DVOA metric that adjusts for opponent.

Star veterans Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James look like their old selves (when healthy, at least), with James providing impact plays every game from the slot, especially as a blitzer. Free agent additions Poona Ford and Teair Tart have shored up an interior defensive line that had been one of the biggest weak points in the entire NFL over the past few seasons.

Young players Tuli Tuipulotu (six pressures against the Bengals) and Daiyan Henley have leveled up this season and continue to get better every week. Henley in particular has been a revelation in this defense.

Even non-star starters like linebacker Denzel Perryman have been playing the best ball of his career. This Chargers defense plays sound, with adaptable game plans that mold and shift based on their given opponent of the week.

When there’s a unit punching above its weight, or seemingly getting the best out of all its contributors, it usually is indicative of the coaching and game-planning that is happening during the week on top of the work the players put into it. The Chargers' defense just feels tight. Zones tighten, coverage defenders will fall off their original assignments anticipating where the ball will likely go based on the scouted looks, defenders (always multiple) quickly rally to tackle ball carriers. Every game features a new pressure look, whether a real blitz or simulated, and pass rush plans that try to expose any weakness in the opposing team’s protection plan.

Twists, loopers, slants. Games is what it’s typically called in football parlance. The Chargers throw all of these games at opposing offensive lines and pass protectors with their talented front, testing the rules and sheer ability that the opposing squad has in the trenches, in the backfield, and on the opposite sideline, poking and poking and hoping something will pop. Most NFL offenses simply don’t have the competence to hold up for 60-plus plays before letting some leakiness happen, and the Ravens' offensive line is no different. (On a sidenote, I’m really looking forward to seeing Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum against Ford and Tart.)

On early downs, the Chargers run zone coverages at the second-highest rate in the NFL, with the featured coverage changing based on the matchup in this kaleidoscopic scheme. Often you will see Chargers defenders jumping to change their leverage when defending passing plays, sometimes in ways that seem unorthodox. This is a sign of a well-coached and well-scouted unit that knows how to pinpoint an opponent's tendencies. That works very well against teams lacking high-end talent, but can be preyed upon against teams that can execute or have a deeper bag of tricks to get to (like the Bengals in Week 11).

The heavy use of zone coverages makes even more sense when you consider the personnel for the Chargers. This unit’s strength is along their front and not with their cornerbacks. Despite blitzing at the eighth-lowest rate on early downs, the Chargers rank third in pressure rate. Bosa, Mack, and Tuipulotu are a formidable group of pass rushers to deal with. When you drop in other strong contributors like Tart and Morgan Fox, the Chargers can bring heat after the QB without having to throw extra bodies at the problem. The Chargers lean into zone, make QBs work to find an answer, hope their pass rush can get home and also mitigate any coverage disadvantages they might have on the back end.

It’s not to say that they don’t blitz at all. The Chargers like to throw in funkier looks on true passing downs like second-and-long or on third down when they want to create more chaos, and they bring pressure at around a league average rate on late downs. But given Lamar Jackson has been the best QB against the blitz this year, that blitz rate will be unlikely to climb after this week. (Jackson is 78 for 111 for 1,091 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions against the blitz this season. He’s generated 50.1 EPA when teams bring five or more pass rushers. Jared Goff ranks second at 36.1.)

The Chargers' soundness carries over when defending QB designed runs. They haven’t been tested with many, but when playing QBs like Kyler Murray, the Chargers defenders did a great job in staying disciplined against read plays. There is a tradeoff here when playing such specific zone coverages that will put multiple eyeballs on receiver route patterns: scrambles. The Chargers rank 27th in the amount of EPA they’ve allowed to QB scrambles this season and have allowed the third-most scramble yards per game, only behind the Jaguars and Giants. Because the Chargers like to match their coverages and will bracket receivers on passing downs (with a corner and safety essentially double-teaming one player), the opposing QB has chances to make plays with his legs if the pass rush can’t keep him contained since the coverage defenders are so focused on their assignments.

Early downs against the Ravens should be really interesting, considering how devastating the Ravens have been. The Chargers make it a slog to run against, but that’s not to say you can’t catch them. They currently rank 26th in explosive run rate allowed and are going against Derrick Henry, Jackson, and a run game that can pop off at any time.

The Chargers are also third against early down play action in terms of success rate allowed, which again speaks to the horses they have up front and the discipline on the back end to avoid catastrophic busts. Jackson and the Ravens are excellent on play-action plays, ranking second in success rate and EPA per dropback on early down play action concepts this season and seventh in yards per game off those passes, per TruMedia.

That’s what makes this side of the ball so intriguing. The Ravens' offense is explosive, efficient, and electric. The Chargers have a talented front and are very well-coached at all three levels. There are loads of strength-on-strength areas and matchups between the two sides, which is typically entertaining because good plays will feel earned in this type of game. Both teams will mold their game plans based on the opponent, getting to their core plays in different ways or throwing in new twists for the opponent to deal with.

How they use their personnel is an interesting subplot; the Ravens love trotting out their TEs and FB Patrick Ricard (they use personnel groupings with two or fewer WRs at the second-highest rate in the NFL), always threatening to steamroll a defense if they don’t want to match with bigger bodies. The Chargers, however, run dime personnel (six DBs) at the second-highest rate in the NFL and the highest rate when opposing offenses have two or fewer WRs on the field (14.5%, and no other defense is above 5%). And, somewhat counterintuitively, they’ve been good at defending bigger offensive personnel groupings too, which again speaks to the adaptability, effort, and execution this entire unit has played with this season.

I will be curious if the Ravens decide to use Henry on a RB screen once or twice in this game as a way to slow down the pass rush, and also since it’s such a strength of Henry’s juggernaut-like running style. The Chargers, again because of their hyper-focused coverage responsibilities, have been susceptible to big plays against RB screens this season. They have only faced nine so far, but have allowed gains of 15, 37, 18, and 33 yards on those plays. Henry had 23 screen receptions in his last two seasons in Tennessee, with those going for 341 yards at a crisp 14.8 yards per play. Henry has only been used on two screens so far this season, but those gains have, of course, gone for 27 and 23 yards. Look for this as a way to catch the Chargers in one of their defensive line games and heavy zone coverages, giving Henry some space underneath.

The Chargers under Jim Harbaugh have completely reflected his personality, and it’s palpable when you watch them. They play tough, they play hard, they play smart, and they play disciplined, with players on both sides of the ball playing to their fullest (and a few stars dropped in). They’ve benefitted from a not-particularly-difficult schedule so far, but have shown up against the better units and teams when they have faced them. And they also have a QB playing at a high level and more aggressive than ever.

The Ravens also have one of those high-level QBs, one of the best offenses in the game and a defense that has real strengths (but a few glaring weaknesses). Chargers fans were as loud as I have ever heard them this past weekend against the Bengals on Sunday night. This Monday night HarBowl has plenty of reasons to crank those decibels up even more.