Florida Gators’ 2024 schedule review: Can head coach Billy Napier salvage his job?

It is now the third season for the Billy Napier experiment in Gainesville, and the past two seasons have not left much room for optimism. The Gators combined to go 11-14 in 2022 and 2023, leaving Napier on the hot seat. If Florida doesn’t see substantial improvement from the team this season, the former Louisiana Lafayette coach will likely be packing his bags to leave Gainesville for good.

While the Gators bring back sixth-year quarterback Graham Mertz, along with an experienced and talented offensive line, the defense will need to see substantial improvements if Florida wants to take the next level in the SEC. The front half of the schedule is no walk in the park, but the Gators’ last six games are about as challenging of a slate as any team in the country will face.

Can the team outperform expectations and help keep its coach afloat for the near future?

▪ Aug. 31 vs Miami (3:30 p.m., ABC): The Swamp will be packed for the renewal of this historic inter-state rivalry between the Gators and Hurricanes. But Florida fans will leave Ben-Hill Griffin disappointed, as Cam Ward and the rest of Miami’s skill players will run roughshod over the Gator’s defense. Miami 38-31

▪ Sept. 7 vs Samford (7 p.m., ESPN Plus): The Gators get a break amidst their challenging schedule when they take on FCS Samford. Although the last time Samford visited Gainesville they pushed the Gators to the limit before losing 70-52, Florida should have no problem running away with the game. UF 42-10

▪ Sept. 14 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ABC): In year one of the Mike Elko era, A&M will have one of the best offensive and defensive line combos in all of the SEC. Plus, with a potential Heisman finalist like Connor Weigman running the offense, I see A&M coming out of Gainesville with a win. TAMU 31-28

▪ Sept. 21 at Miss State (Noon): The Bulldogs lost eight starters on a defense that was ranked 10th worst in college football at rushing the passer. That means Mertz and the rest of the offense should be able to enforce their will in Starkville, Miss. UF 49-28

▪ Oct. 5 vs UCF (Time TBA): KJ Jefferson returns to Gainesville, where he helped lead Arkansas to an upset victory over the Gators last season. However, I don’t see him doing that this time, as the Knights simply don’t have the talent to keep up. UF 35-27

▪ Oct. 12 at Tennessee (Time TBA): Nico Iamaleava showcased why he will be Tennessee’s quarterback of the future in last year’s bowl game against Iowa. Iamaleava’s play, along with the Volunteers home advantage, will prove too much for Florida. UT 35-24

▪ Oct. 19 vs Kentucky (Time TBA): With a defense primed to be one of the best in the nation, and experience at the skill positions and offensive line, Kentucky could be a dark horse threat in the SEC this season. But with the home field advantage, Florida will edge out the Wildcats. UF 26-21

▪ Nov. 2 at Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC): The Gators finish off their last five games playing teams ranked in the preseason top-15. The Bulldogs dismantled the Gators last year 43-20 and don’t expect to see anything different this time around. UGA 45-17

▪ Nov. 9 at Texas (Noon): Florida once again goes on the road to face the Longhorns in Austin. While I believe quarterback Quinn Ewers has a slightly worse supporting cast than he did last season, the Longhorns are still a favorite to make it to the College Football Playoff for a reason. Texas 42-27

▪ Nov. 16 vs LSU (Time TBA): With Heisman-winner Jayden Daniels leaving Baton Rouge, it will be up to Garrett Nusmeier to lead the Tigers in 2024. While LSU should be solid on offense with a couple likely first round picks anchoring the offensive line, it won’t be to the same level it was last year. Plus, Mertz and Co. should be able to pass all over the Tigers porous secondary. The Gators will pull off the upset and shock LSU in the Swamp. UF 34-28

▪ Nov. 23 vs Ole Miss (Noon): Ole Miss should be a lock to make the college football playoff this season. The terrific transfer class they brought in should bolster its defense and the return of Jaxon Dart should make sure the offense is up to par. Despite Mertz’s best effort, the Gators don’t have the horses to keep up. Ole Miss 35-17

▪ Nov. 30 at FSU (Time TBA): After nearly ruining FSU’s undefeated regular season last year, the Gators will now go to Tallahassee to take on the Seminoles. However, for the second week in a row, Florida will be outmatched. FSU 27-17