Would Florida fire coach Billy Napier in the first month of the season?

GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) — No one should be surprised if Florida fires coach Billy Napier during the opening month of the season.

There’s plenty of recent precedent.

Five coaches were let go in the first five weeks of the 2022 season: Scott Frost at Nebraska, Herm Edwards at Arizona State, Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech, Paul Chryst at Wisconsin and Karl Dorrell at Colorado. (Clay Helton was fired at USC after two games in 2021.)

Although each situation was different, there was a common thread: the coaches had reached the point of no return. Boosters threatened to stop contributing financially. Fans vowed to stop showing up for games. Administrators had little choice but to turn the page.

It feels like Napier is close, if not already there. Saturday night’s home game against lower-division Samford (0-1) could be a clear sign of how frustrated the Florida faithful have become watching the former Louisiana-Lafayette coach flounder.

Napier is 11-15 in two-plus seasons with the Gators, including a six-game skid and 11 losses in his last 14 games against power-conference opponents. His season-opening, 41-17 drubbing to then-No. 19 Miami in the Swamp last week showed little has changed in three seasons.

The Gators were twice flagged for roughing the passer in the first half, and both penalties led to touchdowns. Napier had to call a timeout coming out of a media timeout in the second quarter. And he dialed up runs (one was technically a pass behind the line of scrimmage) on two third-and-5 plays.

Florida didn’t have a single pass play gain 20 yards, went 1 of 9 on third down and finished with 261 total yards — with 71 of those coming on Montrell Johnson’s TD scamper late in the first half. Florida’s rebuilt defense was gashed for 529 yards, the sixth time an opponent has topped 500 yards during Napier’s regime.

“We can flip the script and kind of move on,” Napier said Wednesday night. “It’s so key, whether you have failure or success, that it doesn’t affect your attitude or approach. We’re battling human nature on both ends of the spectrum. Sometimes you win and you’re sky-high and you get to thinking you’re better than you are and sometimes you have failure and you’re getting beat up.

“It’s part of the leadership challenge to help our young people sort through what becomes a noisy situation.”

It’s deafening in Gainesville right now, even though Florida would owe Napier more than $25 million if it fires him during or after this season.

Questions about Napier’s job security won’t go away anytime soon, especially amid the toughest schedule in school history, and not even a victory against seemingly overmatched Samford would do much to quell a restless fanbase.

“It is what it is. If you play for the New York Giants and you get beat by a couple scores and you look sloppy, you’re going to get criticized,” Napier said. “Look, we have a lot of football left to play and there’ll be a time hopefully here if we can right the ship here that we’ll be combatting the other side of the spectrum.”

Jack Crowe holds the dubious distinction of being the only coach in recent memory to get canned after Week 1. Arkansas athletic director Frank Broyles fired Crowe the day after a 10-3 home loss to The Citadel in 1992. Crowe has just begun his third season, and the Razorbacks had just moved to the Southeastern Conference.

It seemed rash at the time. But quick triggers have become more commonplace of late.

Frost was fired three games into his fifth season. Edwards was let go three games into Year 5. Collins was fired four games into his fourth year. Chryst was gone five games into Year 8. Dorrell was ousted after an 0-5 start in his third season. Rutgers let Chris Ash go four games into his fourth season in 2019.

Most of them didn't survive September, and like Napier, they entered the season on the proverbial hot seat.

It would be out of character for Florida to do the same. After all, the last four coaches fired in Gainesville — Ron Zook, Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen — lasted at least until late October.

But college football has changed dramatically since even Mullen’s firing in 2021. Boosters are more openly involved than ever before, and collectives at big-time programs have monthly payrolls to meet. And potential financial fallout might be as important to the health of a program as wins and losses.

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Mark Long, The Associated Press