Flames offseason outlook: Biggest questions, needs, free agent targets

During the last week, it’s become abundantly clear that the Calgary Flames’ 2023 offseason will throw rookie GM Craig Conroy right into the metaphorical fire.

From the day Conroy was promoted to the job, it was clear things wouldn’t be easy. The Flames missed the playoffs last season and parted ways with both Brad Treliving and Darryl Sutter. To an extent, the team is still absorbing the shockwaves of the earth-shaking departures of Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau.

At this moment, Conroy and the Flames are likely brainstorming what to do after it became clear that one or all of Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli and Mikael Backlund are not interested in signing extensions as they enter contract years. It’s rarely a good sign when, “Toffoli is open-minded about where he’d get traded to” feels like fairly positive news.

It’s important to note that for every situation that feels fairly settled (Hanifin “clearly indicated” that he won’t sign a contract extension with Calgary, via Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli), there may be wiggle room with some players.

Still, the theme seems to be that the Flames could lose several key players, possibly all of them, and would probably be wise to trade them while they still have a bit of leverage.

The key questions for Conroy revolve around what he’s looking for, and when he should pull the trigger. Will the Flames lean into more of a “win-now” direction, or embrace something closer to a full-on rebuild? Could big Flames trades happen as soon as next week’s draft, will they do their business later this summer or will they for next season's trade deadline?

This situation would befuddle even the wisest, most experienced team-builder. If Conroy navigates this skillfully, he’d put together one of the great “rookie seasons” of any NHL GM.

Technically, the Flames made their most pressing decision by promoting from within when they named Ryan Huska as their new head coach.

Look at the most immediate Flames free agents and you may not have much of a reaction (beyond a sigh of relief that the Milan Lucic contract is finally finished).

Notable UFAs: F Milan Lucic, 35; D Michael Stone, 33; F Trevor Lewis, 36; F Nick Ritchie, 27; D Troy Stetcher, 29

Notable RFAs: None

Projected cap space: $1.25 million

With the knowledge that one or more players are following the path of Matthew Tkachuk by telling the Flames they aren’t interested in re-signing, there should be some sense of urgency. Look at some key 2024 Flames free agents to be and you’ll see impact players largely on team-friendly cap hits.

• F Elias Lindholm, 28, $4.85M AAV

• D Noah Hanifin, 26, $4.95M AAV, eight-team no-trade list

• F Tyler Toffoli, 31, $4.25M AAV

• D Christopher Tanev, 33, $4.5M AAV, 10-team no-trade list

• F Mikael Backlund, 34, $5.35M AAV, 10-team no-trade list

As of this writing, Tanev is the only player whose name didn’t surface in rumours about players not wanting to sign extensions with the Flames.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that each of those players could land a hearty trade return, especially if: a) the Flames retain salary/take on cap hits and b) suitors can open up contract extension talks.

Of all the scenarios, it sounds like Conroy doesn’t want the Flames to lose players like Hanifin or Lindholm for nothing in free agency, like what happened with Gaudreau last offseason.

Granted, there’s at least some room to wonder if the Flames might get saved from themselves.

Jonathan Huberdeau’s eight-year, $84 million ($10.5M AAV) extension looked rough — if not nightmarish — before it even kicked in. For all we know, the Columbus Blue Jackets may feel some remorse about Johnny Gaudreau’s contract (especially if they needed to sign Erik Gudbranson to lure him to Ohio).

Who’s to say that the Flames would’ve ended up glad that they paid Lindholm and Hanifin big money to stick around?

It’s possible that the Flames simply missed their ideal window to combine stars in Tkachuk and Gaudreau with excellent value in the likes of Lindholm and Hanifin.

Citing some big money tied up in aging players such as Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar, Jacob Markstrom and Blake Coleman, the Flames might feel too “stuck” to rebuild, risking a vicious sunk-cost cycle of being stuck in the murky middle of the NHL. Yet, with some patience, a bumpy road can turn to an open road with abundant salary cap space.

Personally, a devoted rebuild path looks wisest for the Flames, especially since there’s no ruling out using first-rounders and prospects from a potential Hanifin trade to make NHL-ready improvements of your own (rather than actually making the picks themselves).

Let’s delve into the Flames’ outlook with a mix of approaches in mind, though.

Biggest offseason needs

Prospect upgrades on defence

Even if the Flames focus on making the playoffs, it’s plausible that Conroy might want to (or be asked to) try to bolster a middling farm system at the same time.

Over the last year or so, both Elite Prospects (22nd) and The Athletic (20th) ranked the Flames’ farm system around the lower-third of the NHL. Depending upon how Dustin Wolf and forwards Jakob Pelletier and Matt Coronato pan out, Calgary seemingly has some options in net and at forward. That said, they haven’t drafted defensemen with high picks very often and also could really use true potential stars.

It would be more heartening if Flames scouting director Tod Button didn’t emphasize size as much as he did in an interview with The Athletic’s Julian McKenzie, as the organization should be chasing talent and skill in every form and shape.

Ideally, the Flames will focus on picks and younger prospects in offseason trades, rather than hope that other teams are wrong in giving up on older pieces who may not even be under entry-level contracts much longer.

Trade a goalie away

After a fantastic 2022-23 season, the bottom fell out from underneath Jacob Markstrom last season (brutal .892 save percentage behind a generally sturdy Flames defence). At age 33 with a $6 million cap hit through 2025-26 and a no-movement clause, it’s hard to imagine Markstrom going anywhere.

So maybe someone will want the younger, cheaper Daniel Vladar? Conroy acknowledged to Seravalli that Dustin Wolf deserves a longer look in the NHL, so Vladar appears to be the odd goalie out.

This scenario makes sense even if there’s a full-on rebuild, as possible growing pains for Wolf could conceivably translate to higher draft lottery odds, while providing the promising netminder with low-pressure reps in the crease.

Scoring help, particularly on the wing

Last season, Tyler Toffoli topped the Flames with career-highs in goals (34) and points (73). Only two other Flames players surpassed 20 goals in 2022-23, and Lindholm was the only other Flame with at least 60 points.

One could picture the Flames getting more goals simply by no longer being shackled by Sutter’s conservative system.

It’s difficult to imagine Huberdeau not rebounding, and his passing could virtually “create” a sniper by proxy. Andrew Mangiapane also seems capable of scoring far more than 17 goals, too, as he's displayed earlier in his career.

Still, even when everyone was healthy and in better spirits, this team lacked a finishing touch last season. The free agent crop isn’t really brimming with snipers, so if the Flames are in “win-now” mode while also trading players, that might be their best route to improve in that area.

Such bets might not be the safest bets, but such is life when you’re in rebuild denial. If there’s a silver lining to so many prominent players wanting out, it might be that the Flames will finally take their medicine, bitter taste and all.