Yahoo Sports Fixture Forecast: El Clasico, North London derby, MLS kickoff and more
Predicting the beautiful game can be a fool’s errand, but fortune favors the bold. Yahoo Soccer has run the stats and analyzed the form books for five of the biggest games this weekend.
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona
The biggest game of the weekend also happens to be the biggest domestic rivalry in all of soccer. The Ones Who Are Really Good At Champion League will face The Ones Who Are Really Good At Spanish Primera Division for the 274th time in a competitive arena, with their record evenly poised at 95 wins apiece.
Barcelona, however, has enjoyed the greater Clasico success in recent times, winning 3-0 at the Santiago Bernabeu this past Wednesday in the Copa Del Rey semifinal second leg and trouncing its arch rival 5-1 in the most recent league meeting in late October.
Furthermore, Madrid has only won three of the last 10 Clasicos staged in its own stadium, losing the past two by an aggregate 6-0 scoreline. Los Blancos’ last victory over Barcelona at the Bernabeu, with the exception of the 2017 Supercopa de España, came all the way back in 2014.
Throw into the mix Nacho’s suspension for card accumulation and Barca’s virtually full-strength side—which has won 10 of its last 12 league matches—and you have all the ingredients of a winning Barcelona recipe. And that’s exactly how the bookmakers see it: SkyBet places Barca as 7/5 favorites (which means bettors would get $7 for every $5 invested). So the smart money backs the visitors.
But of course, there is a major caveat: This is the Clasico, which is as predictable as a box of angry frogs — and equally as erratic. Home advantage is usually irrelevant, defending is an abstract concept and the referee typically dishes out cards like a croupier.
The safest bet from this encounter is on over 2.5 goals. There have been three or more goals in Real Madrid’s last five outings, five of the last six Clasicos at the Bernabeu, and 25 of the last 29 Clasicos in all competitions.
And if there is a market on Gareth Bale being whistled and jeered by the home contingent for no constructive reason, back that too.
Prediction: Real Madrid 1-2 Barcelona
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Tottenham vs. Arsenal
The Premier League has been kind enough to offer the ideal aperitif for El Clasico, in the form of London’s most bitterly contested rivalry.
For so many years, the North London derby was Arsenal’s to lose. The Gunners consistently finished above Spurs and they would laugh down their noses from their lofty fourth-place finish, savoring the moment when Bayern Munich would knock them out of the Champions League round of 16.
Now, of course, the tables have turned. St Totteringham’s Day (the day when Tottenham can no longer mathematically finish above Arsenal) hasn’t been celebrated in a while and Spurs boast England’s best striker, one of the best managers, a viable path to the Champions League quarterfinals, and one of the world’s best stadiums awaiting their arrival.
The odds reflect Spurs’ newfound status, as they are roughly evens for the win, with Arsenal priced at around 5/2. Not only did Mauricio Pochettino’s men win the most recent North London Derby (in the League Cup in December), but they have won the last two they have hosted. Arsenal last won away at Tottenham in the league in May 2014, when Tomas Rosicky stunned fans by not being injured long enough to grab the only goal.
However, in the past two outings, Spurs have seen their slim shot at a title challenge wither away with successive defeats to Burnley and Chelsea. Not only are they nine points shy of the leaders, but Arsenal will be just one point behind them with a victory at Wembley.
The Gunners will be encouraged by Spurs’ recent form and will be buoyed by their midweek demolition of Bournemouth. However, they’re also not reliable on the road — their only away win in the last seven came against Huddersfield. Who are terrible. This suggests good news for Tottenham.
A draw or a narrow Spurs win seem like reasonable bets, but the best tip would be to back Harry Kane. The England striker has an incredible record against Arsenal, scoring eight times in eight Premier League appearances. SkyBet will give you a little better than 3/1 if he opens the scoring.
Prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Arsenal
Best Bet: Harry Kane first goalscorer
Napoli vs. Juventus
There’s no shortage of derbies across Europe this weekend as Lazio host roommates Roma in a fierce battle for fourth place in Serie A. But we’re focussing on Sunday’s box office clash between perennial league champs Juventus and closest competitor Napoli.
Last season, Napoli ran the title race down to the wire, thanks to a talented group who, unlike Chelsea, actually wanted to do what Maurizio Sarri asked them to. The gap at the top of Serie A is a little wider in this campaign, with the Old Lady holding a virtually unassailable 13-point lead.
However, Napoli has proven to be one of Juve’s toughest opponents in recent seasons, winning two of the last four encounters, and only losing once in the last four meetings at the Stadio San Paolo.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side’s greatest strength right now is its defense. Napoli hasn’t conceded in its last five outings and has the second-best defense in the league. Given the watertight backline and recent form (one defeat in the last 18 in all competitions), most bookmakers make them the favorite. (You’ll get around 7/5 with SkyBet and about 2/1 for the Juventus win.)
Juve will also likely have one eye on its vital upcoming Champions League clash with Atletico Madrid. Given the importance of that game, and the lead in the league, the visitors may choose to rest Cristiano Ronaldo.
If the Portuguese star sits and Napoli keeps defending well, an entertaining draw might be the most likely outcome (and you’ll get the same price for it as a Juventus win with most bookies).
Prediction: Napoli 0-0 Juventus
Best bet: Under 1.5 goals
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayern Munich
The weekend’s big Bundesliga tilt sees second-place Bayern Munich go head-to-head with third-place Borussia Monchengladbach.
Even though Dieter Hecking’s side has claimed only a point from the last three outings, Gladbach has been one of this season’s surprise packages. French striker Alassane Pléa is one of the league’s top scorers with 10 goals, while the top scorer from last season, Thorgan Hazard, boasts nine.
Gladbach routed Bayern at the Allianz Arena earlier this season, coming away with a 3-0 win despite having only three shots on target and 28 percent possession. And no German side has taken more points from the Bavarians since 2014 (14 from nine games).
However, the winter break has proven to be a turning point for both teams. Bayern’s form has vastly improved, while Gladbach has generally struggled to replicate its terrific output from the first half.
Niko Kovac’s side need three points to stay within touching distance of defending its title — and will make a strong statement of intent by earning them on Saturday. Despite playing away, Bayern is the strong favorite in this one with most bookmakers.
Prediction: Borussia Monchengladbach 0-2 Bayern Munich
Best Bet: Bayern to win and not concede a goal (2/1 with SkyBet)
DC United vs. Atlanta
It hardly seems like yesterday Atlanta United was blowing the roof off Mercedes-Benz Stadium in MLS Cup, but America’s top flight makes its welcome return this weekend.
The heavyweight clash of the weekend surely comes in the East, where reigning champs Atlanta visit 2018’s rising star D.C. United.
With Wayne Rooney, Paul Arriola and Lucho Acosta in its attacking trident, D.C. boasts one of the more enviable front lines in the league. Atlanta, meanwhile, lost Miguel Almiron but gained 2018 South American Footballer of the Year Pity Martinez, while retaining much of the core of that winning team.
The X-factor for the Georgia side this season will be new coach Frank de Boer. After a successful stint at the helm at Ajax, de Boer endured unfruitful spells with Internazionale and Crystal Palace. He will likely be more defensively minded than Tata Martino, and he will encourage squad rotation. Watch this space.
These two sides have faced each other six times, four of which have produced a 3-1 scoreline. The home side in this rivalry also appears to have a distinct advantage, as they have won the last five encounters.
As Atlanta finds its feet and faces a D.C. side that only failed to score twice in its last 17 outings, a home win with more than a couple of goals seems like the winning ticket.
Prediction: DC United 2-1 Atlanta United
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals
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