Five bold predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

The beauty of making sweeping, predictive pronouncements about a baseball season to come is that the excuses are already built in.

Of course there will be injuries, trades and twists of fate which render many of these null and void. Of course there will be excuses for knowing (or not knowing) ball in a sufficient manner to explain the whiffs. Those things which came as total surprises? Squint; they’re here in some form or fashion if you wish and believe hard enough.

Last year’s success rate hovered somewhere around 40%. A hitter who hits so well would practically get his own wing built on the Hall of Fame. Perhaps this year’s predictions will be good enough for induction.

1. Quinn Mathews makes his major league debut before May 1

Arguably the St. Louis Cardinals’ top pitching prospect, Mathews racked up 202 strikeouts in just 143 ⅓ innings spread over four minor league levels in 2024. Drafted as a high floor college starter in typical Cardinals fashion, he instead found velocity on his fastball that allowed him to spring much higher than his floor might have implied, and how he stands on the cusp of the majors.

He’ll be invited to big league camp, and while the spot may not be there to break with the team on opening day, pitchers are inherently fragile. Michael McGreevy is seemingly the next man up among the starters, but with just a little bit more roster shakeup and salary dumping, McGreevy could well break camp in the rotation.

That leaves Mathews, who will also have his own opportunity in spring to show he’s worth a spot. Roster mechanics may work against him then, but not for long.

2. Pedro Pagés leads the Cardinals in starts at catcher

Pagés may have hit better than the Cardinals expected in 2024, but the comparison between him and Iván Herrera wasn’t all that close. Pagés posted a .657 OPS and 82 OPS+; Herrera checked in at .800 and 124, and in more plate appearances. That kind of production jumps off the page for a catcher, as long as that catcher can put up competitive defensive reps. And therein lies the rub.

To hear the Cardinals talk about Herrera’s struggles controlling the run game last season raised some real red flags. The issue, to hear them describe it, wasn’t footwork, awareness, or even pitchers being timed up on the way to the plate. The issue was that he simply didn’t throw the ball hard enough. That can be worked on, but there are limits, and the need for that particular improvement begs the question of why it hadn’t been noticed before.

Pagés is trusted by the coaches and the pitching staff and calls a good game, though his own running game control leaves a lot to be desired. Still, pitching struggles are how a team craters, and if things turn questionable, it’s easy to imagine Pagés becoming the security blanket.

3. Masyn Winn makes his first All-Star team en route to winning his first Gold Glove

There’s a certain unhinged joy in reading far too much into the team’s promotional schedule, as though the marketing department has a fourth phone connected to the dugout to tap in directly to on-field decisions. Still, it’s worth noting that there are four separate giveaway days tied to Winn on the calendar for 2025. He is, at the moment, the team’s most exciting player – perhaps its best player – and well on the way to an undeniable breakout.

The Cardinals did not have a player voted to the All-Star Game by either the fans or the player vote last season. Ryan Helsley was added by the commissioner’s office to guarantee they had a representative, and he then opted not to pitch. Winn won’t take the same option.

Ezequiel Tovar’s Gold Glove at shortstop in 2024 was well earned, but arguably an upset over Winn, winner of the Fielding Bible Award at the same position for all of MLB. Expect those awards to unite in 2025 as Winn continues to grow offensively and establish himself as the cornerstone piece the Cardinals desperately need him to be.

4. Nolan Arenado is traded before spring training to the Philadelphia Phillies

Predicting a trade here is easy; predicting a team seems futile. A deal with Houston fell apart, the Yankees and Dodgers reportedly aren’t interested, and seats are filling up as the Red Sox flirt with Alex Bregman and no clear spot for Arenado is on the horizon.

Philadelphia was the dark horse prediction that made sense at the start of the offseason, and it does even still. The Phillies seem sincere in their desire to move on from Alec Bohm, and they have never been shy about chasing star power and the big dollars which accompany it. Arenado as a defensive wizard and depth lineup piece is about where he fits best at this point in his career. With the Phillies, he would slot in behind a group which includes Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and others. He would be one of the guys, not The Guy.

The Cardinals and Phillies have had many trade conversations in recent years, going as far back as Philadelphia’s interest in Jordan Montgomery at the deadline in 2023. There’s familiarity with systems and a trust in dealing, as well as pre-existing relationships for Arenado in that clubhouse. This is where those things meet.

5. Craig Albernaz becomes a Cardinal by the end of the year

The current Cleveland Guardians assistant manager was a hot managerial candidate this winter, interviewing for the Miami Marlins job which eventually went to Clayton McCullough. Last winter, he interviewed for the Cleveland job before it went to Stephen Vogt, but found himself in a prime position on the staff.

The 42-year-old from the Boston area is a rising talent held in high esteem, and the Cardinals are interested in collecting those sorts of people.

Albernaz’s work in Cleveland brought him into contact with both Rob Cerfolio and Larry Day, who were hired by the Cardinals this winter to revamp their flagging farm system. He was also a farmhand in the Tampa Bay system through a big chunk of Chaim Bloom’s tenure heading their baseball operations department. The appeal connections are obvious, and Albernaz seemingly stayed another year in Cleveland for a reason.

Oli Marmol’s contract runs through 2026. With Bloom set to take the reins at season’s end, it’s fair to say he’ll have significant latitude in choosing his own big league coaching staff. Perhaps it stays as is; Bloom, after all, will still need to hire a general manager to operate underneath him in the office. Is that the sort of promotion Albernaz desires? One way or another, the Cardinals seem destined to find out.