First look: UNC football looks to continue late-season resurgence against Wake Forest

For those caught up in stats and analytics, here are some numbers to consider: In the past three football games between North Carolina and Wake Forest, the winning team has averaged 51 points and the losing team 47.

The fewest points scored by either team: 34.

The rub is that the Tar Heels have won all three games, edging the Demon Deacons 36-34 in the game two years ago in Winston-Salem. For the record, UNC pulled out a 58-55 thriller in 2021 and won 59-53 in 2020, both in Chapel Hill.

The two go at it again this week at Kenan Stadium as the Heels come off their second bye week of the season and the Deacons look to rebound from a high-scoring loss to California at home. The game Saturday has an 8 p.m. start on the ACC Network.

Another shootout? The Tar Heels (5-4 overall, 2-3 ACC) would like to think they’ve made the defensive changes needed to thwart the offenses they will see in the final three games — Wake Forest, at Boston College and N.C. State.

In winning road games at Virginia and Florida State, the Heels’ defense stifled the running game while keeping constant heat on the opposing quarterbacks. UNC had 10 sacks at Virginia and ranks third nationally with 32 sacks in nine games — Jahvaree Ritzie and Beau Atkinson each with 6.5 for the season.

“What we’ve always said is stop the run and affect the quarterback,” UNC coach Mack Brown said after the 35-11 win at FSU. “That’s two weeks in a row where our front seven has stopped the run. When you stop the run and you can run the ball, you win the game, and that’s what we’re doing.”

The Deacons (4-5, 2-3) fell behind Cal 36-21 late in the third quarter Friday but battled their way back into the game. Wake Forest trailed 39-36 before a late interception helped the Golden Bears seal a 46-36 win.

Some offensive numbers of note: Senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier of the Deacs passed for 274 yards and two touchdowns, senior receiver Taylor Morin had nine catches for 110 yards and junior running back Demond Claiborne rushed for 133 yards and added 51 yards in receptions, scoring twice.

In the game two years ago, UNC clinched a Coastal Division title as quarterback Drake Maye threw for 448 yards and three TDs and wideout Josh Downs grabbed 11 balls for 154 yards and three scores. Wake’s Sam Hartman passed for 320 yards and four touchdowns.

After all that offense, the game was decided on Noah Burnette’s 33-yard field goal with 2:12 left after UNC’s Cam’Roy Kelly picked off a Hartman throw.

One final statistical note: The two-point margin of victory was the smallest for UNC in a football series dating to 1888.

UNC player to watch: Desmond Evans

While much has been made, rightfully so, of the return of rush end Kaimon Rucker from injury and all the sacks on defense, UNC defensive coordinator Geoff Collins has often mentioned the steady play of Evans at end.

Evans and Ritzie lead UNC’s defensive linemen in tackles with 28, and Evans has 7.5 tackles for losses. Evans and Atkinson each have a team-high five quarterback hurries.

After the 10 sacks at Virginia, Collins said: “A lot of our pressure was coming from just straight bull-rushing guys and being physical and not losing contain. I was really proud of Des Evans, how disciplined he played in the run game, how disciplined he played in the pass game, which was awesome to see.”

Atkinson calls Evans a “super high-motor guy” whose efforts do not go unnoticed by anyone on the team.

Key matchup: UNC defense against the run

The Heels held the Cavaliers to a net of 7 yards rushing on 29 attempts in their 42-14 win in Charlottesville as Virginia lost 67 yards in the 10 sacks. In UNC’s dismantling of Florida State, the Seminoles had 42 net yards rushing.

Taking away the run puts added pressure on the quarterback, and the Tar Heels have shown how much they’ve enjoyed rushing the quarterback the past two games. Brown said the defense has been playing fast, loose and physical, and it shows.

If the Deacons can’t run, Hachmeier probably won’t be able to hide.

“Our kids have bought in with total confidence,” Brown said of his defense. “They totally believe in what we’re doing on defense and they’re doing it with confidence.”

Betting odds

The Tar Heels have been made 10.0-point favorites in some of the early Vegas betting lines and the over/under set at 62.5 points.

How to watch

The game will be shown on the ACC Network. Streaming services include: fubo TV, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, DIRECTV Stream, Sling TV

UNC (5-4 overall, 2-3 ACC) vs Wake Forest (4-5, 2-3)

When: Saturday, 8 p.m.

Where: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill.

TV: ACC Network.

Series history: The two schools have played since 1888 and UNC has a 72-36-2 overall record. The Tar Heels have won the past three games. Wake’s last win in the series was 24-18 in 2019 and its last win in Chapel Hill a 24-17 victory in 2006.