First look: Northern Illinois, NC State coach Dave Doeren’s former school, looks for upset

N.C. State returns home Saturday to face a somewhat familiar program, but who knows what will actually happen?

The Wolfpack hosts Northern Illinois, head coach Dave Doeren’s former program. Doeren went 23-4 in his two seasons at the helm, guiding the Huskies to back-to-back bowl games and MAC championships.

NIU, now coached by Thomas Hammock, upset ranked Notre Dame on the road in Week 2. Coming off a bye week, it lost to conference opponent Buffalo, 23-20, in overtime Saturday.

Meanwhile, N.C. State collapsed against Clemson and had issues in every phase of the game. The defense couldn’t stop the Tigers in the first half, the offense made plays late but the protection left much to be desired, and special teams didn’t do much.

With the uncertainties and inconsistencies showing up in both programs, it’s hard to predict how next week will go. ESPN analytics give N.C. State a 56.1% chance of winning.

One thing is certain: The Wolfpack needs more leadership. CJ Bailey, in his first collegiate start, showed it with his ability to remain calm and make plays down the stretch. He brought excitement and energy to the field that carried the offense late into the game.

The rest of the captains — minus Grayson McCall, who is out because of injury — didn’t rise to the occasion as Doeren hoped they would.

“I don’t know that I did, to be honest,” Doeren said when asked how they stepped up against Clemson. “I never saw a big play made by somebody in that role. … It wasn’t a game where there was a guy I can single out, ‘He had a great game today.’ We didn’t have a guy like that today.”

NIU, despite losing its own conference opener, is one of the more well-rounded teams in the nation.

Entering the game, the Huskies rank in the national Top 30 in at least one category on offense, defense and special teams.

It ranks No. 24 in fourth down conversion percentage (.750), No. 6 in third down conversion defense (.222) and No. 5 in blocked kicks.

Prior to NIU’s loss to Buffalo, it ranked No. 2 in the nation for passing efficiency and passing yards per completion.

Additionally, the Huskies are among the most disciplined teams in college football. They are No. 2 for fewest penalties (11) and No. 5 for penalties per game (3.67).

NIU and Bowling Green were picked in the preseason poll to finish tied at No. 3 in the Mid-American Conference. Despite the early loss, there’s still plenty of time for the Huskies to meet or exceed that goal.

Player to watch: Huskies running back Antario Brown

Stopping senior Antario Brown will be circled on N.C. State’s game plan. Prior to the season, Brown was listed on several national award watch lists, including the Walter Camp Player of the Year Award and Maxwell Award.

Brown was the Mid-American Conference’s top returning rusher after gaining 1,296 yards last season. He finished in the top 20 nationally.

The sample size is limited, but Brown contributed consistently in the first three games. He recorded 241 yards and was a yard shy of 100 against Notre Dame.

Brown ranks No. 13 in the nation and No. 1 in the MAC for all-purpose yards, averaging 144.6 per game, thanks to his versatility. The Huskies don’t rely heavily on him in the passing game, but have used him when necessary. He comes in at No. 49 in rushing yards per game (80.3) as well.

The Wolfpack struggled to stop the run in three of four contests. It ranks No. 94 for rushing defense (167.8) and No. 106 in total defense (414.5).

N.C. State limited Louisiana Tech to 33 yards on the ground, but gave up 100 or more in the remaining trio. Clemson took advantage of the weaknesses and racked up 269 rushing yards.

‘We weren’t in this game’: NC State gives up program-highs in first-quarter, total points

If it struggles against Brown and the rest of the Huskies, it could be another long afternoon for the Pack.

Vegas betting odds

NC State opened as an 8.5-point favorite against Northern Illinois, according to FanDuel Sportsbook on Sunday morning.

The over/under opened at 46.5 points.

NCSU opened at -280 to win outright, and Northern Illinois opened at +225 to win outright.

NC State vs Northern Illinois game info

Teams: N.C. State Wolfpack (2-2, 0-1 ACC) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (2-1, 0-1 Mid-American)

Where: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh

Date: Sept. 28

Time: Noon

TV: The CW

Stream: fubo TV, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, DIRECTV Stream

Series history: This will be the second game between the programs. The last game took place in 1997. The Wolfpack beat the Huskies, 41-14.