Yahoo Sports The Field of 16: Projecting the Cup Series Playoffs entering Michigan
Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.
With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?
It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.
Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Michigan International Speedway.
NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-RICHMOND
DRIVER | AT RICHMOND | ENTERING MICHIGAN | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|
Bubba Wallace | 44.52% | 71.12% | +26.60 |
Ross Chastain | 51.26% | 56.39% | +5.13 |
Chris Buescher | 76.80% | 71.90% | -4.90 |
Ty Gibbs | 78.69% | 62.63% | -16.06 |
DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE
One of the most intense battles for the Regular Season Championship is taking shape as Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott are separated by just six points with three races to go. Denny Hamlin is still within striking distance, sitting 21 points back.
Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and William Byron have all won multiple races this season and while a regular-season title isn’t within grasp for the trio, they can still continue to rack up playoff points to position themselves well for the start of the postseason.
Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric each own a win and have locked in spots in the postseason. Both Suárez and Cindric return to the playoffs after missing out in 2023.
LAST 4 IN
This has to be one of the most hotly-contested bubble battles in the postseason era. The fateful end to Martin Truex Jr.’s 2022 regular season is slowly creeping back up to him after an engine failure at Richmond now has him just 78 points above the current elimination line. While he was the runner-up at Michigan last year, he’s yet to win at the track and waiting in the wings to take the next playoff spot is the defending winner whom Truex lost out to last year — Chris Buescher.
Buescher has been overdue for a breakthrough this season and while it hasn’t come yet, Michigan is his best chance to finally secure a spot in the postseason. The No. 17 RFK Racing driver led a quarter of the laps in the Irish Hills last season to get win No. 2 of 2023. Now, Sunday becomes the opportunity to clutch up again to close the regular season like he did last year as Ford goes for its 10th consecutive win at the track.
Out of all those on the bubble, Bubba Wallace has the most momentum heading into the final weeks of the regular season. Four top 10s in the last five races have the No. 23 23XI Racing driver three points to the good ahead of Michigan, and with both Daytona and Darlington being favorable tracks for the veteran, Wallace is the likeliest of the group of five on the bubble to stretch the gap to the elimination line and advance.
On the flip side of momentum, Ty Gibbs’ summer has been one to forget. Outside of a third-place result at the Chicago Street Course, the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing driver has just one finish inside the top 20 since Gateway. Whether it’s an equipment issue that has been plaguing JGR since Hamlin’s engine failure at Sonoma or just in-race execution, Gibbs is in desperate need of a big points day at Michigan before the wild card of Daytona creates 400 miles of stress for the team.
FIRST 4 OUT
Entering the season, would you have thought Ross Chastain would be on the outside looking in with just three races to go? Well, that’s where the 2022 Championship 4 driver and last year’s Phoenix title race winner sits right now as he’s even with Buescher for the 16th and final spot (Buescher owns the tiebreaker with the best finish). Without a victory yet in 2024, a top five at Richmond last weekend didn’t really do much to improve Chastain’s position.
However, Michigan could be a saving grace as both Suárez and Chastain have led 10+ laps each in the last two races in the Irish Hills and both grabbed top 10s in last year’s event.
Michael McDowell will be an intriguing driver to watch with Front Row Motorsports’ Tier 1 support from Ford and technical alliance with Team Penske. You wouldn’t ping the organization as one to win at this track type but practice and qualifying will be a good indicator of if this team has race-contending speed.
WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT MICHIGAN?
McDowell’s experience lends better to his abilities to perform in good equipment but with his departure to Spire Motorsports after this season, it opens the door for Todd Gilliland to have a big weekend in Ford’s backyard. Outside of his Pocono crash, the No. 38 driver has finished inside the top 20 in every race since Kansas in May, and with Ford being the top dog at Michigan, it could be a special weekend for the rising Cup star.
MORE: 2024 Cup Series schedule | How to get notified for 2025 schedule release
Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.
