The Field of 16: Projecting the Cup Series Playoffs entering Richmond

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Richmond Raceway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-INDIANAPOLIS

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

Kyle Larson became the first Cup Series driver to four wins in 2024 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and simultaneously reclaimed the regular-season points lead over Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott. Tyler Reddick’s runner-up result in the Brickyard 400 now finds him right in the mix for the regular-season title as he’s just 15 points behind Larson.

Denny Hamlin dropped 43 points back of Larson after being involved in a late-race incident in the second overtime that resulted in a second straight DNF at the Indy oval for the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver.

With just four races left, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric are all additionally locked into the playoffs on wins as it is only possible for 16 different winners now until the end of the regular season.

LAST 4 IN

Martin Truex Jr. sits a comfortable 108 points above the elimination line, but we’ve seen a similar trend play out for the No. 19 Toyota driver when he can’t snag a regular-season win. While four new winners to close the regular season seems nearly impossible, there’s still the outside chance the 2017 series champion is locked out of the postseason like he was just two years ago. The 44-year-old driver will be hungry for redemption at Richmond after leading over 200 laps in the spring race and failing to secure the victory.

Three drivers feeling anything but comfort in their playoff hopes are Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain.

The trio all had woeful performances at Indianapolis, with Chastain finishing the highest of the bunch in 15th. Buescher suffered two flat tires in Stage 1 that put him multiple laps down, and Gibbs suffered engine issues that disallowed him moving toward the front of the field.

Time is running out for all three to nab playoff berths, but all are more than capable of being the 13th different winner of 2024 at Richmond.

FIRST 4 OUT

Here comes Bubba Wallace. What was a deficit of more than 50 points pre-Chicago has now dwindled to just seven points as Wallace scored consecutive top 10s at Pocono Raceway and Indianapolis.

The No. 23 23XI Racing driver was among the contenders in last summer’s race at Richmond, leading 80 laps before Chris Buescher took over in the closing stages.

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT RICHMOND?

This is going to be Kyle Busch’s best shot of winning his way into the playoffs, which is the only way he can make it at this rate. A playoff streak and a 19-year win streak are both on the line for Busch this season, and with each passing week, it looks dimmer and dimmer that the two-time Cup champion can keep either alive. Richmond is a must-win for the No. 8 RCR team.

MORE: 2024 Cup Series schedule

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.