The Field of 16: Projecting the Cup Series Playoffs entering Indianapolis

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-CHICAGO

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

With just five races left in the regular season, 10 drivers have clinched berths in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric are provisionally locked in with their single victories this season. Still, they could be in jeopardy if new winners emerge in the remaining events before the 16-driver field is official.

After Pocono Raceway, Chase Elliott jumped Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson for the Cup points lead, and the pair are separated by just three points for the regular-season title that will award 15 bonus playoff points. Tyler Reddick (-15) and Denny Hamlin (-20) are also right in the mix for the coveted postseason reward.

Of those without a win, Martin Truex Jr. should safely be into the playoffs as he sits a comfortable 137 points above the elimination line.

LAST 4 IN

It’s going to be six stressful weeks for Chris Buescher, Ty Gibbs and Ross Chastain. Nothing would cure that stress more than a victory, but no one from this trio has been within reaching distance of a victory recently.

Buescher’s been the closest and is still overdue for his breakthrough this season. Top fives at Sonoma Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Nashville Superspeedway still leave hope the No. 17 RFK Racing driver will add his name to the winner’s list this season. Last year, Buescher won three of the final five regular-season races.

After Phoenix Raceway and Bristol Motor Speedway at the start of the season, it looked as though Gibbs would be in line for multiple victories in his sophomore campaign, but it’s been a year of highs and lows for the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing team with little consistency in between. Pocono seemed like the golden opportunity for Gibbs’ maiden Cup win, but the 21-year-old faded out of the lead in Stage 2 and had his engine expire in the final stage. Indianapolis will likely not improve Gibbs’ playoff hopes as he’s never put down a lap on the oval.

If there’s any driver or team that’d be most disappointed in potentially missing the postseason, it’s Chastain and the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet group. Chastain was runner-up in the title race in 2022 and won the championship race in 2023 despite not being title-eligible. With three consecutive finishes of 22nd or worse, Chastain holds just a 27-point advantage over Bubba Wallace for the 16th playoff spot.

FIRST 4 OUT

Wallace got an important top-10 result at Pocono after starting 29th. Now just 27 points back of the final playoff spot, the final five races of the regular season are all potential winning spots for the No. 23 23XI Racing driver. Wallace finished third and ninth in the last two Indy oval races, respectively.

For Kyle Busch to be a three-time winner at Indianapolis, it will probably need to come from pit strategy. In five of the last six races, the two-time Cup Series champ has started 19th or worse. With Busch sitting 102 points below 16th, it’s going to take a win if the No. 8 RCR team is going to vie for the Bill France Trophy.

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT INDIANAPOLIS?

Going to go with the Hoosier himself, Chase Briscoe. Sure, it would probably take some chaos and aggressive strategy in the pits, but Briscoe has put together quite the consistent 2024 campaign and is 18th in the playoff standings (-75). Briscoe and his Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Josh Berry have inched ever so close to being race-win contenders this summer.

MORE: Racing Insights predicts Indy | 2024 Cup Series schedule

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.