The Field of 16: Projecting the Cup Series Playoffs entering Southern 500

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-DAYTONA

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

A chaotic Coke Zero Sugar 400 saw an array of results but almost a washout at the top of the Cup Series standings as Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were all involved in incidents last Saturday night.

Larson was the benefactor at Daytona despite being collected in a pair of multicar incidents as the 2021 series champion is now just 17 points behind Reddick for the Regular Season Championship. Elliott, who exited the race early in Stage 2, is now third and 18 points behind Reddick.

Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and William Byron have all won multiple races this season, and while a regular-season title isn’t within grasp for the trio, they can still continue to rack up playoff points to position themselves well for the start of the postseason.

Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric each own a win and have locked in spots in the postseason. Both Suárez and Cindric return to the playoffs after missing out in 2023. Harrison Burton shocked the Cup field with his dramatic victory, holding off Kyle Busch at Daytona to nab win No. 100 for Wood Brothers Racing.

LAST 4 IN

If there’s no new winner Sunday evening, all Martin Truex Jr. needs to worry about is finishing the race with a 58-point gap to the elimination line. However, the 2017 champ can’t cruise around Darlington if there’s a new winner, and he’ll need at least 19 points to clinch if that scenario comes to fruition.

Sophomore Cup driver Ty Gibbs has little Cup experience at Darlington, which may affect how he races Sunday night, but the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing driver should have confidence with a runner-up result at the track in the spring. He also has a pretty comfortable 39-point gap ahead of Bubba Wallace and will need just 16 points to clinch without a new winner. A new winner? Then a whopping 38 points for Gibbs will be required.

Chris Buescher will no doubt have a chip on his shoulder Sunday evening as he looks for redemption after spring heartbreak took away what would otherwise look to be a guaranteed win at Darlington. He’ll likely need some help in any scenario, but 34 points without a new winner will see Buescher clinch his second consecutive playoff berth.

FIRST 4 OUT

There’s still a path for Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace to get in on points despite both being over 20 points below Buescher for the final playoff spot. However, it’s going to take a lot of help, and both Gibbs and Buescher were strong at Darlington in the spring.

In last year’s Southern 500, both Chastain and Wallace finished inside the top 10, and while it can lead to more success Sunday evening, they have to go in with a must-win mentality as Buescher was third in the same event. Wallace has been one of the hottest drivers over the last five races, with an average finish of 10.2 in that span. The only driver better than him is his 23XI Racing teammate Reddick who has an average finish of eighth.

Kyle Busch can only get in with a victory on Sunday. He’s won a Southern 500 before (2008) and will need to find that same magic if he’s to make the playoffs for a 12th consecutive season.

RELATED: Clinching scenarios for Cup drivers at Darlington

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT DARLINGTON?

It has to be Erik Jones on the way outside looking in. Jones has double the Southern 500 wins compared to the Hall of Famer, motorsports icon and 200-time Cup Series winner Richard Petty. Jones is also one of only two active drivers with multiple Southern 500 trophies (Hamlin). Entering the regular-season finale, Jones‘ 2024 campaign hasn‘t gone to expectations, but there‘s no reason to believe why the No. 43 Legacy Motor Club driver can‘t be in the mix late on Sunday. With multiple drivers in pressure-filled scenarios this weekend, Darlington will be the ultimate test of mental and physical strength, and with only one path for Jones to the postseason, the vision is clear. Also, Jones has only failed to finish outside the top 10 once in seven Southern 500 starts.

MORE: 2024 Cup Series schedule | 2025 NASCAR schedule revealed

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.