Fantasy Update: Remaining Championship 4-heavy, Team Penske leading the charge

Championship Weekend is beginning to feel like the last two seasons. In 2022, Joey Logano dominated at Phoenix Raceway from the pole position. Last year, Ryan Blaney overcame a mid-field starting position to hoist the Bill France Cup. Those story lines are appearing again, with Logano qualifying second and Blaney starting 17th. Throw in William Byron qualifying eighth and Tyler Reddick in 10th, and it‘s a challenge to handicap to the Championship 4. Unlike previous seasons, stage points will be tallied for Championship 4 drivers, and it would be beneficial to have some of those drivers available for the race. Byron won‘t be appearing in my lineup because I‘ve run out of usage for the No. 24 car.

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Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:

Starter 1: Joey Logano

Starter 2: Ryan Blaney

Starter 3: Tyler Reddick

Starter 4: Kyle Larson

Starter 5: Christopher Bell

Garage pick: Martin Truex Jr.

NEXT IN LINE: William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott

RISING: It‘s a rarity for Cup Series superstars to have the chance of winning their final race. Jeff Gordon made it to the Championship 4, and Kevin Harvick led 23 laps last year. And while Truex plans on making sporadic Cup starts moving forward, the full-time chapter of his racing career ends Sunday. The No. 19 team prepared Truex a Toyota that could contend for the victory, turning the second fastest speed in practice and then winning the pole. The biggest question mark is whether the team can execute, something it‘s struggled with all season long. If so, it could very well be a storybook ending.

It‘s been a brutal first postseason run for Gibbs. In the opening nine races of the playoffs, the No. 54 team has finished one better than 13th (fifth at Kansas Speedway) only once. Gibbs hasn‘t cracked the top 30 in the last month. However, JGR tends to excel at tracks that are similar to Phoenix — and Gibbs finished third in the spring after leading 57 laps. Wouldn‘t advise putting the No. 54 car in your lineup, but he‘s jumped up the pecking order.

FALLING: In Fastlane this week, Chris Buescher was listed as a sleeper. I‘m abandoning that pick because the No. 17 Ford was average at best in practice and qualified 24th. Buescher‘s streak of padding consecutive top fives at Phoenix is in jeopardy.

Because RFK Racing put both cars inside the top five in the spring Phoenix race, we might as well throw Brad Keselowski in the mix of drivers to stay away from this weekend. Keselowski has had a tough postseason himself, with only a pair of top 10s. Keselowski was 27th on long-run speed in practice and backed that up in qualifying by qualifying 27th.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Ryan Blaney vs. Joey Logano: The Team Penske duo looks to have the best cars among the Championship 4 drivers. Blaney led the way in single, five-, 10, and 15-lap averages during an extended practice session Friday afternoon. The No. 22 ranked second in 10-lap averages and put his Ford on the front row. I‘ll give the nod to Blaney, but would it really surprise anyone if Logano continued his postseason magic?

William Byron vs. Tyler Reddick: Hendrick Motorsports looks better overall at Phoenix compared to eight months ago in the spring. The No. 24 ranked in the top five in one-lap and 10-lap averages. Meanwhile, Reddick slotted in 21st on single lap and improved to 10th over a 10-lap run. Going to flip to Byron here, who also bettered Reddick by two positions in qualifying.

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson: Hamlin was the best non-Penske driver on the 10-lap average and paced the field over a 20-lap run. He also led 68 laps in the spring, tied with Reddick for the race high. Hamlin will have a 10-position buffer to overcome at the start of the race, and the No. 5 team wasn‘t much behind Hamlin‘s pace. I‘m taking Larson.

Ross Chastain vs. Chase Elliott: This is a tough one because Chastain lacked raw speed in practice but said his car felt similar in practice to how it did last year when he ended up dominating the race. He found speed in qualifying and will take the green flag from third position. To further complicate matters, Elliott has four straight finishes outside the top 10 at Phoenix but appeared to have a car capable of breaking that streak and will start fifth. I‘ll stay the course and give Chastain the nod.