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Fantasy Football Week 3 Start 'Em Sit 'Em

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·9 min read

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take real thought. Good luck with your Week 3 lineups!

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr is the No. 2 fantasy QB despite New Orleans attempting the fewest passes (40) in the league over the first two weeks. Klint Kubiak’s extreme use of play action and motion is a cheat code, as the Saints have scored 91 points while barely trying after halftime. Shaheed is sure to regress having caught two touchdowns on just nine targets, but he’ll also see more volume in games less lopsided moving forward.

Shaheed leads the NFL in yards per route run by a mile and ranks seventh in average separation score on a team using 2-WR sets a league-high 90% of plays. The Saints also lead the NFL in fantasy points per dropback by a wide margin. The Eagles have allowed the second most fantasy points to wideouts, so I have Shaheed as a top-20 WR this week (and top 30 rest-of-season).

I wasn’t particularly high on the Saints entering the year, but I’m adjusting my priors significantly.

DeVonta Smith (no A.J. Brown) and Chris Olave (a major buy low candidate) are both top-10 wide receivers in this matchup.

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New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns

Cooper’s slow start to the season could’ve been much better, and he remains Cleveland’s clear WR1. The Browns are one of only five teams with a positive pass rate over expectation this year, and the Giants are yielding the fifth-most YPA (8.2) over two games. Cooper’s been far more productive at home historically, so keep him in lineups this week.

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have been gashed for a league-high 175.0 RB rushing yards per game to open the year, but that’s helped by an NFL-high 93 rush attempts. Volume might not be there for the Bears with Indianapolis (slightly) favored Sunday, and D’Andre Swift has struggled. Moore is Chicago’s clear WR1, especially while Keenan Allen is out and with Rome Odunze playing through a sprained MCL. Chicago’s offense has been a disaster, but Moore gets a favorable matchup indoors against a Colts defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Keep him in lineups this week.

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

Dell easily could’ve had a 67-yard touchdown last week, and he’s run routes on 66 of 77 C.J. Stroud dropbacks (leaving on some run plays). That 86% rate is right with Nico Collins’ 88%; the Texans have used 11 personnel 79% of the time this season with the addition of Stefon Diggs. Houston figures to become more pass-happy with Joe Mixon out with an ankle injury, while hip/foot issues limited Collins in practice until he got a full session in on Friday. The Vikings have a stout run defense and underrated offense, so Dell’s targets should increase Sunday.

Jalen Nailor is a deep fantasy sleeper with Jordan Addison out with an ankle injury and Justin Jefferson banged up (though he was left off of the final injury report).

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

A banged-up Justin Herbert, who appears to be a true game-time call, could lead to a favorable game script for Pittsburgh, and Harris remains the team’s clear lead back. Still, his snap rate dropped to 48% last week with a healthier Jaylen Warren seeing 45%. Harris ran just six routes (Warren ran 10 in a game without much passing) and remains at risk of losing rushing scores to Justin Fields. The Chargers have ceded just 73.5 RB rushing yards per game without a TD, yielding the league’s lowest EPA/rush. The Steelers have just an 18.75-point implied total in a matchup that will be slow-paced, so Harris deserves bench consideration this week.

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White is admittedly something of a risk entering with a groin injury, but he got in a full practice Friday and was able to finish last week’s game while playing through the ailment. He’ll continue to lose rushing work to rookie Bucky Irving, but White still has 32-of-50 RB touches in Tampa Bay’s backfield. The Buccaneers’ passing attack has looked great, and White is a good receiving back who’ll continue to see targets. Tampa Bay is 6-point home favorites against a Broncos team with an overmatched QB and a defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs.

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

Pollard gained more yards after contact (71) in Week 1 than any game in 2023, as he continues to look more explosive the further he’s removed from TightRope surgery. Tyjae Spears saw more work last week, but he left with an ankle injury. He is expected to play, according to a report, but he’s unlikely to be 100%. The Titans have an impressive defense and may be underrated having two punts blocked (and some QB gaffes) over the first two weeks. Game script could be favorable Sunday against Malik Willis, as Jordan Love could reportedly return next week. The Packers have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to running backs, so treat Pollard as a top-15 RB this week.

Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders

White’s snap share increased from 39% in the season opener to 65% last week, even seeing work in the passing game. The Raiders have been surprisingly pass-heavy and have struggled to run the ball this season, but this is a favorable matchup for White. The game script will be more competitive with Andy Dalton taking over for Bryce Young, but the Raiders enter 5.5-point home favorites. Carolina has allowed the second-most RB rushing yards per game (166.5) and fantasy points to running backs this season. Volume has played a role, but the Panthers have also ceded 4.9 YPC and the fourth-most EPA/rush.

Brock Bowers has already graduated from this column and should be considered a top three fantasy tight end moving forward.

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks

Charbonnet isn’t as good as Kenneth Walker III, but he saw a league-high 95% of the snaps and all 19 RB opportunities last week. Walker is doubtful to play Sunday, so Charbonnet gets another chance to act as feature back in an exciting new Seattle offense in a favorable home matchup. The Dolphins have yielded the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs over two weeks, and game script should be positive with Skylar Thompson taking over as Miami’s QB.

Jaylen Waddle totaled 101 scoreless yards over three Thompson starts in 2022, and his over/under for receiving yards Sunday is 41.5. Waddle is still a top-35 WR this week, but he’s a bench candidate if you have alternatives.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Williams ranks top-five in first-read targets and expected fantasy points per game. Amon-Ra St. Brown looks good to go, but he’s coming off a quad injury that prevented him from finishing last week’s game. Jared Goff has struggled, but Detroit is due for major red-zone regression. Goff easily leads all quarterbacks with 13 red-zone attempts so far. The Lions once again have the highest implied team total (27.25 points) in a fast-paced matchup against an Arizona defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

Elliott and Rico Dowdle have the same number of snaps and opportunities through the first two weeks. The 29-year-old Elliott is averaging just 3.5 YPC for the second straight season, and he gets a Ravens defense allowing NFL-lows in YPC (2.7) and RB rushing yards per game (37.0). Aim higher than an aging back who’s evaded just one tackle on the year and is facing a stout Baltimore run defense.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are decimated at offensive line and will be without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Los Angeles has one of the league’s lower implied team totals (18.75 points) facing the 49ers, so Stafford belongs on fantasy benches this week.

Demarcus Robinson and Jordan Whittington are deep fantasy sleepers, as the Rams continued to use heavy 11-personnel last week despite the WR injuries.

Brandon Aiyuk is a top-five WR this week with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. out.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons

Pitts saw his route share fall from 96% in Week 1 down to 73% last week, and he sports a lowly 11% air yards share through two games. Drafting Pitts over Brock Bowers was clearly a mistake with the benefit of hindsight, but Pitts should remain in fantasy lineups this week. He could be much busier against a Kansas City defense allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and likely to concentrate on taking away Drake London. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed by far the most fantasy points to tight ends this year.

Pitts is moving better this season, and Kirk Cousins quieted concerns he’s washed with an improved Week 2 performance. Tight end production has been dramatically down across the league — on top of numerous injuries at the position — and all seven of Pitts’ career touchdowns have come at home, so he’s still a top-seven option this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills

Lawrence ranks 31st out of 33 quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation, and he’s sporting by far a career worst pressure to sack rate (29.2%). Lawrence has lost an NFL-high seven straight starts, and he’ll be missing Evan Engram again. Buffalo has ceded the third-most fantasy points to running backs but the 11th-fewest to quarterbacks, so sit Lawerence this week.

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Moss’ share of Cincinnati’s backfield grew even more last week, when he saw 82% of the snaps (the third-highest in the league) and 13 of 17 RB opportunities. Game script should be favorable Monday night with the Bengals 7.5-point home favorites. Cincinnati is tied for the highest implied team total (27.25 points) this week after facing a couple of tough defenses to open the year. Moss was productive when given 15+ rushes last season, and he’s set up for good volume Monday night.