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Fantasy Football Week 10 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·8 min read

Set your Week 10 fantasy football lineups with start/sit advice for each game on the slate.

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

Swift has been fantasy’s RB8 since Week 3 despite Caleb Williams’ struggles. The rookie QB has played far better at home this season, where the Bears are nearly touchdown favorites Sunday. Swift has averaged 108.6 yards from scrimmage and nearly a TD per game during wins this season, and game script should be positive this week. The Patriots have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this year, and RBs have averaged 143.5 rushing yards against New England over the last four games. Swift is a top-10 RB this week.

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Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

Start: Dalton Kincaid & Josh Downs

Kincaid has averaged more than seven targets over the last five games, including 10 last week. The Bills have a +5% PROE (pass rate over expectation) over the last three weeks, and Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman will both miss the game with injuries. Kincaid should be busy Sunday against a Colts defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Kincaid is second on Buffalo in targets per route run, and he’s due for regression having seen the most uncatchable targets among tight ends. He’s a strong start in a nice matchup indoors Sunday.

Downs saw his route participation drop last week when the Colts went heavy 12-personnel against a blitz-happy Brian Flores defense, but he still saw five more targets than any other Indy receiver. Downs ranks top five in targets and top 10 in expected fantasy points during games started by Joe Flacco this season. Michael Pittman Jr. has been ruled out for this game. The Bills have ceded the seventh-highest target share and the eighth-most receiving yards to the slot, where Downs has run 79% of his routes this season.

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas Jr.’s lack of targets has been frustrating, but more volume should be coming with Christian Kirk out for the season. Thomas ranks eighth in receiving yards but just 28th in targets. The rookie ranks second in the league in yards per target and 10th in route win rate. Minnesota should help provide the volume, as Vikings’ opponents have averaged the most pass attempts (40) this season. Minnesota has allowed the second-most targets and fantasy points to wide receivers. Mac Jones is a downgrade from Trevor Lawrence (reportedly out with a shoulder injury), but he’s a serviceable backup. BTJ should see more opportunities as he's expected to play through a chest injury.

Sam Darnold is my QB6 this week in a highly favorable matchup, while Aaron Jones is due for TD regression and is in a smash spot.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sit: Javonte Williams & Courtland Sutton

Williams’ tough schedule continues after playing in Baltimore last week. Kansas City has yielded by far the fewest fantasy points to running backs (also schedule adjusted), including an NFL-low 50.9 RB rushing yards per game. Game script will also likely be a problem with Denver 7.5-point underdogs, and the Broncos sport a lowly 17.25-point implied total.

Sutton’s fantasy managers deserve better after he lost a fumble at the goal line two games ago and was tackled at the one-yard line last week, when Bo Nix also missed him open in the end zone. Sutton has the 12th highest air yards share this season, so he remains a top-35 WR this week, but expectations need to be tempered. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to outside receivers, where Sutton has run 86% of his routes this season. Moreover, Sutton’s target rate and catchable target rate have plummeted when Nix has been pressured this year, so explore alternatives if possible.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Hill saw 10 opportunities and an increased route share last week, as he’s become New Orleans’ second option on offense with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out. Hill had a short rushing score last week and has seen four carries inside the 10-yard line over the last three games. Plug Hill into your tight end spot.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Purdy comes out of his bye with healthier weapons in a highly favorable matchup. Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, including a whopping 12 touchdown passes over the last three weeks. The Bucs’ defense played 83 snaps Monday night and now gets a short week. Purdy has the NFL’s top passer rating (126.0) versus zone coverage, which Tampa Bay uses at one of the league’s highest rates. The 49ers are projected to score the most points (28.5) this week, so Purdy is a top-five fantasy QB.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders

Pickens averaged 60.5 receiving yards and scored zero touchdowns over six games with Justin Fields this year. His full season’s pace over two games with Russell Wilson is 1,572 receiving yards and eight TDs. Pickens has already drawn nearly as many targets inside the 10-yard line (three) from Wilson as he did over the first six games (four). Washington’s defense has played far better after a slow start, but Pittsburgh may have to throw more than usual in this fast-paced matchup.

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sit: Tony Pollard & Calvin Ridley

Pollard will play through an ongoing foot issue, but the Titans are hoping to lessen his workload with Tyjae Spears finally set to return this week. Pollard has experienced a drop in production during games with Spears this season, and he gets a Chargers’ defense this week allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Los Angeles has yielded an NFL-low one RB rushing touchdown and 52 fewer points than their opponents’ implied total this season.

Ridley has benefitted from DeAndre Hopkins leaving, but he gets a Chargers’ secondary allowing the fewest fantasy points to his primary side. Ridley also benefitted from Mason Rudolph starting, but Will Levis is back this week. Tennessee sports a league-low 15.75-point implied total this week, and this matchup will be slow paced. Ridley’s schedule becomes highly favorable down the stretch after this week.

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals

Adams got off to a slower start after getting traded to the Jets, but he’s seen a 37% target share over three games with New York. He’s playing more out of the slot since the trade, where Arizona has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points this season. Aaron Rodgers is likely to start looking his way more in the red zone, so Adams is back to being a must fantasy start.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Dowdle is the RB26 in this week’s “expert consensus ranks,” which makes sense given his projected volume and how thin RB becomes. Dowdle’s coming off a season high in snap share (73%), but he gets a tough matchup while playing in an offense missing Dak Prescott and a banged up CeeDee Lamb.

The Eagles have ceded the third fewest fantasy points to running backs, and no RB has reached even 50 rushing yards against Philadelphia since Week 3. Dallas’ fantasy RB usage ranks last in the league, and the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys have a lowly 18-point implied total this week. This matchup also projects to be slow paced, so Dowdle’s expectations need to be tempered even if he acts as Dallas’ lead back.

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans

Dell had his best game of the season last week when he saw the sixth most air yards in the league against a tough Jets’ secondary. He’ll continue to benefit from Stefon Diggs’ absence, and Nico Collins is a game-time call as he tries to return from a hamstring injury after getting just one limited practice in on Friday. Dell, who is expected to play through a back injury, gets a pass-funnel Detroit defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs but the third-most to WRs. Lions’ opponents have the second highest pass rate (65%) this season. Moreover, C.J. Stroud’s YPA jumps from 6.9 on the road up to 8.7 at home throughout his career, while his TD rate nearly doubles. Dell could have a big game Sunday night.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams

Smith leads the Dolphins with a 22% target share since Miami’s bye, higher than Tyreek Hill (19%), De’Von Achane (21%) and Jaylen Waddle (12%!). Smith owns a 76% route participation rate over that three-game span, and he’s become a TE1. Smith has seen at least six targets in four straight games, and the Rams have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Start Smith in an indoors matchup with a 49.5-point total Monday night.

Advice originally included prior to kick off of the Panthers-Giants game in Germany.

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (Germany)

Tracy Jr.’s had a strong role over three games since Devin Singletary returned, and it’s growing by the week. He’s averaged 82.6 rushing yards and 5.2 YPC over five games as a starter, and he’s capable of contributing more in the passing game (he played wide receiver in college).

The Giants have turned run-heavy over the last two games, and they get a Carolina defense this week allowing by far the most fantasy points to running backs. The Panthers have also yielded the most rushing yards (132.9) and total touchdowns (15) to RBs this year. The Giants are near touchdown favorites in Germany on Sunday, so Tracy Jr. is a top-15 RB in a mouth-watering matchup this week.