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Fantasy Football Week 1 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·9 min read

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take real thought. Good luck with your Week 1 lineups!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Pickens gets a tougher matchup with A.J. Terrell likely shadowing him, but he’s still a top-30 WR on my board this week. He registered a 38.4% first-read target rate over four games without Diontae Johnson last season, ranking top 20 in targets per route run (24.1%) and top five in yards per route run (2.93).

No matter who started at QB for Pittsburgh, it was going to be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. Pickens gets a matchup indoors against a pass-funnel Falcons defense that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last year, so he should be busy Sunday.

Justin Fields ranks as a top-12 QB with him starting over the injured Russell Wilson this week.

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills

Cook is in a smash spot at home against a Cardinals defense that was gashed for the most fantasy points by running backs last season. Arizona opponents had the second-highest run rate and averaged an NFL-high 30.6 carries last year.

Buffalo became the most run-heavy team in the league after Joe Brady took over as OC last year, when Cook also saw his role grow in the red zone. The Bills have the second-highest implied team total (27.0 points), so Cook should be treated as a borderline top-five back this week.

Sit Keon Coleman, who figures to have a delayed development during his rookie season.

Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears

Williams will have to overcome a very shaky Chicago coaching staff, but he’s the real deal and will add legitimate fantasy value with his legs. The Titans project to be fast-paced and pass-heavy, so the matchup looks favorable. Williams is well worth starting right away in fantasy.

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Start: Zack Moss & Chase Brown

Both Cincinnati running backs should benefit from game script with the Bengals 7.5-point home favorites; New England’s implied team point total is a lowly 16.75 points. Ja’Marr Chase only recently returned to limited practices and has been dealing with an illness, but he will play. Still, he could be limited after holding in all summer. Meanwhile, Tee Higgins is out with a hamstring issue that popped up late in the week, so the Bengals are likely to run as much as possible Sunday.

BONUS: Andrei Iosivas easily won the team’s WR3 job and is a sleeper.

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Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

Dell has durability questions given his size, but he’s a threat to lead Houston in receiving any week he’s healthy. His route participation figures to drop with Stefon Diggs now in Houston, but Dell will remain plenty involved in a Texans offense sure to pass more in 2024.

He outscored Nico Collins in fantasy points during five games they were healthy together last season, when Dell was a rookie. Sunday’s matchup is indoors and projects to be fast-paced. C.J. Stroud should put up a monster performance in Week 1, with Dell benefitting.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins

Mostert is at increased risk of suffering an injury this season at 32 years old, but he enters as Miami’s 1A back and the heavy favorite for goal-line work. He scored a whopping 14 touchdowns over eight games in Miami last year, where the Dolphins averaged 31.9 points and an NFL-high 6.7 yards per play. Miami’s offense is traditionally more potent earlier in the season, and the Dolphins have the third-highest implied team total (26.3 points).

I have Raheem “Must Start” as a top-15 back this week (and De’Von Achane top 10).

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Johnson is an elite separator who will dominate targets now in Carolina. Dave Canales will be a huge help to the Panthers’ offense and Bryce Young, who should improve in Year 2. Johnson has a career target per run rate above 30% against man coverage. He was also twice as efficient against man (0.67 FP/RR) than zone (0.33 FP/RR) in 2023; the Saints played man coverage at the league’s fourth-highest rate last season, and DC Joe Woods returned.

Johnson’s run toward 100+ catches starts Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants

Singletary enters as New York’s clear workhorse, and game script could be more favorable than usual for the Giants in Week 1. New York’s offense should be better this season with an improved offensive line, new alpha WR Malik Nabers added early in the draft and Brian Daboll now calling plays. Singletary will see good volume in a fast-paced matchup, so he’s a top-25 RB this week.

Nabers is also a strong fantasy start during his NFL debut.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

Palmer was listed with a knee issue on Thursday’s injury report, but he was still a full participant in practice and the same held true Friday. Assuming he’s good to go, Palmer is likely to act as L.A.’s WR1 right away (and lead the team in targets this season) with rookie Ladd McConkey unable to work much with Justin Herbert throughout the preseason.

Herbert (foot) is ready for Week 1, and Palmer ranked top 25 in yards per route run (2.2) and top 12 in receiving yards per game (71.1) after Mike Williams went down last season. Palmer’s target per route run rate has jumped to 20% without Williams on the field throughout his career, and Keenan Allen left during the offseason as well.

Palmer was drafted outside the top 50 wide receivers in Yahoo leagues, but he’s a threat to finish top 25 if things break right.

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba had a disappointing rookie season, but a broken wrist and coaching were plenty to blame. Seattle used 3WR sets at a low rate despite drafting JSN in the first round, and his average depth of target ranked 95th among wide receivers. In fact, he had by far the highest target% behind the line of scrimmage among all wideouts.

Smith-Njigba figures to be a much bigger part of an improved Seahawks offense in 2024, led by new OC Ryan Grubb. Tyler Lockett is expected to play but enters the year dealing with a thigh injury, both Seattle tight ends are banged up, and Patrick Surtain will be shadowing DK Metcalf, so JSN has a nice setup in Week 1.

Javonte Williams and Kenneth Walker are both strong fantasy starts this week as well.

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

Sit: Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson & Rico Dowdle

The Cowboys and Prescott have reason to celebrate after reportedly agreeing to a record-breaking deal. However, the Cowboys typically play far better at home, and they get an extremely tough matchup on the road in Week 1. The Browns allowed NFL-lows in points per game (13.9) and yards per play (3.7!) at home last year, and Dallas downgraded its offensive line during the offseason. Prescott failed to finish as a top 15 fantasy QB during all five games against top 10 fantasy pass defenses in 2023. Prescott got 8.6 YPA and averaged 308.8 passing yards and 2.8 passing touchdowns at home last season compared to 6.8 YPA, 227.3 passing yards and 1.6 TDs on the road. Cleveland opponents had the third-lowest neutral pass rate in 2023.

Ferguson scored one touchdown over nine road games last season, and the Browns ceded the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Rico Dowdle isn’t good at football and will likely be in a three-headed committee facing a Browns defense that allowed by far the least EPA/play last season. The Cowboys have one of the lowest implied team totals (19.25) in Week 1, as they are projected to score fewer points than the Giants and Commanders.

However, CeeDee Lamb remains an elite fantasy start against the man-heavy Cleveland defense.

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Daniels is sure to take too many sacks and make plenty of mistakes as a rookie, especially while having to overcome highly questionable coaching. But his exemplary rushing ability makes him a top 10-QB option right away, including Sunday’s fast-paced matchup in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were a pass-funnel defense last season, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the eighth-most to quarterbacks, including the second-most rushing touchdowns (six) to the position.

Daniels is yet another rookie ready to make an immediate fantasy impact in Week 1.

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions

Goff has averaged 277.2 passing yards (7.9 YPA) with 44 touchdowns over 17 games in Detroit over the last two seasons. He lacks the fantasy upside of dual-threat QBs who run, but Goff is live when playing at home. The Rams allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season, and they are now without Aaron Donald.

The Lions have the NFL’s highest implied team total (28.5 points) in a Week 1 matchup that should be high-scoring. Rams opponents had the third-highest neutral pass rate last year, and DB Darious Williams was just placed on IR, so fire up Goff in fantasy lineups.

BONUS: Colby Parkinson is a sleeper for those in need of tight end help.

New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers’ offense could start a bit slow after Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Aaron Banks and Trent Williams missed so much practice leading up to the season, and a matchup against the Jets won’t help. San Francisco has questions along its offensive line, and New York enters with the league’s best defensive front. The Jets somehow allowed the fewest yards per play last season despite their offense getting the second-fewest. New York yielded just 187.2 passing yards per game (6.1 YPA) and by far the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks last year.

Moreover, this game should produce a limited number of plays, as the 49ers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league and no quarterback likes to bleed the play clock more than Aaron Rodgers. Purdy should be treated as a top-10 fantasy QB most weeks, but he’s a sit Monday night.