Fantasy Football storylines to watch in Week 6: JuJu Smith-Schuster dances into the Rashee Rice role

You can gauge a TV show’s power over our collective interest by how quotable it is.

Take "Breaking Bad," for example. Aaron Paul’s “He can’t keep getting away with it!” scene will live forever. Bryan Cranston screaming from the SUV has been popular, too. The quotes (and our ability to bend dramatic overtures to our amusement) are powerful. But one sticks out as we come out of Week 5.

"The price is the price, yo."

After I watched every TE for Baltimore except Mark Andrews become fantasy-relevant on Sunday, I knew it was time to move on from my offseason priors. We’ve seen enough. How we value players can’t hinge on what we thought back in August. But, as always, the storylines are always compelling enough to keep us adjusting our expectations for the upcoming week.

Is the Falcons offense ready to take flight?

I’ll cop to it. I saw Kirk Cousins throw the pick in the fourth quarter with less than two minutes to go, and I went to bed. Needless to say, I was confused when I saw “Kirko Chainz” posts in the morning on social media.

But, honestly, I'm also not all that surprised.

Week 3 was the first sign the Falcons were moving in the right direction. Even with the loss, Drake London and Darnell Mooney were separating as primary pass-game options for Cousins. Bijan Robinson was still fourth among RBs in team rushing share (66.7%). In short, the offense was starting to click like we expected. But Atlanta’s underlying tendencies highlight why we shouldn’t chalk up a huge statistical primetime performance to overtime.

• Week 1: -10.0% (pass rate over expectation), 27 (total dropbacks)

• Week 2: -9.0%, 31

• Week 3: -8.0%, 31

• Week 4: +8.0%, 36

• Week 5: +3.0%, 58 (through four quarters only)

New OC Zac Robinson was supposed to inject life into the Falcons’ offense. With his ties to the Rams, real and fantasy fans anticipated not just more efficient plays … but more snaps in general. They ran 50 plays in Week 1. Atlanta went from ranking 27th in play volume to first in Week 5. But it’s not just about allowing Cousins to throw more. Where he throws has also made a difference.

Matt Harmon highlighted London’s skill set on in-breaking routes and indicated that he could be the Puka Nacua in this new Atlanta offense. Accordingly, Cousins has been more willing to target the middle of the field. Unsurprisingly, he’s been more effective by doing so:

• Week 3: 9 (dropbacks to the MotF), 0.16 (EPA per dropback)

• Week 4: 10, -0.68

• Week 5: 19, 0.58

Captain Kirk has command over the entire field. He can layer a ball across the middle or up the seam to London. Or, if Cousins wants to turn up the difficulty a little, he can laser a dart to Mooney on the outside. The passing scheme fits the players. But the running game needs more time to come into focus.

Atlanta’s offensive line ranks 26th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. This jibes with their bottom-12 mark in run-block win rate. It shouldn’t lessen our concern for Robinson (or Tyler Allgeier), but it’s much-needed context. In addition, how the team deploys Robinson should also be kept in mind.

Yes, Robinson only has 16 more rushing yards than Allgeier since Week 3. Without significant pass-game usage (7.8%), the gap in their production doesn’t align with their ADP delta from August. However, Robinson’s seen stacked boxes on 14.3% of his attempts; Allgeier is at just 4.8%. So, if someone with the former on their roster feels like they drafted the wrong ATL back, sending them a trade offer might work in your favor with Atlanta’s offense on the rise.

Please put in Jameis Winston

First, I’ll be fair to Deshaun Watson:

Pause the clip for one second and count how many Cleveland players are on the field.

See? Cleveland’s disaster of a Week 5 isn’t solely on the QB.

Now, look at the scoreboard and Watson’s yardage total. Then, do some quick math on his completion rate (45.4% — not good!). All right, we’re back to the Browns’ problem being No. 4. And it’s clear his defensive matchups this season aren’t the only problem.

• Week 1 vs DAL: 10.7 (Watson FPTs), 18.3 (average QB FPTs — not including Watson)

• Week 2 at JAX: 15.4, 24.9

• Week 3 vs NYG: 16.4, 16.8

• Week 4 at LV: 12.2, 18.6

• Week 5 at WAS: 8.4, 20.8

However, I can’t just hang my hat on bad vibes and say HC Kevin Stefanski needs to switch QBs. He won’t. And before any Watson defenders want to come to his aid and provide excuses, I’ve already thought of a couple.

"The Browns have lost multiple offensive linemen. Watson has no time."

On the surface, I buy this argument. Defenses have been making Watson fight for his life on no less than 38.0% of his dropbacks every week. Even worse, Cleveland’s offense line has broken down at the 12th-fastest rate on a per-play basis (2.48 seconds to pressure allowed). However, Watson hasn’t been able to adjust, knowing the heat is coming.

The Browns’ $230M-GTD man sits behind Bo Nix in adjusted completion percentage on attempts taking less than 2.5 seconds (29th among all starters). At a 26.5% pressure-to-sack rate, Watson sits between Will Levis (fifth-highest) and Gardner Minshew (seventh). The line can only do so much.

"Cleveland added WRs, but Watson needs time to work with them."

Oh, please.

We watched Daniel Jones turn into a serviceable QB with Malik Nabers. I said (warned?) Jones would play himself into another contract, with Nabers turning into the second coming of Odell Beckham Jr. And yet, Jones was without Nabers and dropped 257 on the Seahawks with Darius Slayton. Matthew Stafford has been above 200 in every game this season without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

Watson hasn’t thrown for more than 250 yards since September of last year. The only game in which he’s had a positive completion percentage over expected was in Week 4 (+4.1%). Unrelated, Watson averaged 5.4 air yards per attempt. Meanwhile, he has two top-50 WRs in ESPN’s open score.

Watson’s below-average play constricts our options. Amari Cooper is one of three WRs with a top-eight rank in target rate (27.5%) and air yard share (51.3%). Volume is his only saving grace. But we can’t trust Jerry Jeudy or Elijah Moore. Watson probably doesn’t anymore. Plus, over the last two weeks, D’Onta Foreman has taken three of the four carries from inside the 10-yard line instead of Jerome Ford. We need more productivity out of the offense.

Jameis Winston’s last set of starts were with Chris Olave, Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Thomas as his primary weapons. He had a 46.3% passing success rate (league average) with the most air yards per attempt (11.6). Simply put, he was pushing the ball downfield and (mostly) connecting.

If the Browns want a shot at saving their season, it’s time to turn to their backup QB.

Joe Flacco: The Usurper

Joe Flacco has done it again. He’s ridden into a new town with his cool dad vibes and stolen the show. Flacco will leave yet another QB’s career in ruins. Anthony Richardson, we barely knew ye.

In reality, we’ll see Richardson under center again soon. Long-term health concerns aside, Indianapolis’s fourth-overall pick from last year has only started and completed five games in his pro tenure. The kid needs reps. And draft-capital considerations aside, once you pick someone who looks like they could’ve come from Wakanda, checking to see if they’re a superhero makes sense. Hint: he is.

Regardless, fantasy managers like the temporary switch. Over 350 scrimmage yards in two straight games is worth considering what life would be like with Flacco for the remainder of the season. Right off the bat, I can tell you the WRs (and their fantasy managers) wouldn’t mind.

• Richardson: -10.0% (PROE), -10.3%(CPOE), 12.6 (air yards per attempt), 50.0 (plays per game),

• Flacco: +2.0%, +7.3%, 8.9, 66.5

The first three numbers are the most important. Flacco not only passes more often, but he also does it accurately (relative to Richardson). In two weeks, Indianapolis has jumped from 19th in EPA per drive (Weeks 1-3) to sixth. Flacco’s willingness to pelt the middle of the field has paid dividends for his wideout technicians.

• Yards per Route Run (out of 45 WRs): 10th (Josh Downs), 22nd (Michael Pittman Jr.)

• EPA per Target: 10th, 23rd

Pittman and Downs are averaging 19.1 and 16.0 PPR PPG. But Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are also getting in on the fun, and both could see additional targets with Pittman reportedly set to miss multiple weeks with a back injury. Flacco’s 14.3% deep-ball rate only lags behind Richardson’s by 3.5%. A full season of this would keep everyone afloat fantasy-wise. The running game would also benefit.

• Weeks 1-3: 24th (red-zone plays per game)

• Weeks 4-5: 2nd

The efficiency uptick has given the RBs more shots on goal. Despite only running the ball 10 times on Sunday, six of Trey Sermon’s carries came in the red zone. He even got three targets. Flacco is the tide that lifts all boats.

We should enjoy the ride while it lasts, but be ready to see more (slightly different) fireworks when Richardson returns.

Surprise! The Chiefs’ offense still “works” without Rashee Rice

Kansas City finding new ways to win wasn’t much of a shock. Patrick Mahomes is inevitable. But the added wrinkles in the Chiefs’ offense should be on our radar.

Turning JuJu Smith-Schuster into the lite version of Rashee Rice seems obvious in hindsight. After lining up in the slot on 42.1% of his snaps during his last stint in KC, only Xavier Worthy earned more looks from the interior. The former Steeler parlayed his 27.6% targets per route run rate into nearly leading Chiefs pass-catchers in air yard share (33.6%, behind Travis Kelce) with an absurd 4.48 YPRR. He’ll likely headline waiver columns, but I used the term “lite” for a few reasons.

• Weeks 1-4: 59.8 (plays per game), 57.7% (dropback rate), 5.6 (air yards per attempt)

• Week 5: 80.0, 55.0%, 4.3

Fundamentally, the offense is still the same. Mahomes didn’t throw downfield more (just one deep shot Monday night). They didn’t spam play-action concepts or screen plays to spring guys open. Fantasy managers are seemingly just the beneficiaries of increased play volume. Plus, for Smith-Schuster specifically, he’s not the only one getting worked into the offense.

• WRs: Mecole Hardman (2), Smith-Schuster (1), Worthy (1)

• RBs: Samaje Perine (2)

• TEs: Kelce (3), Noah Gray (1)

While the “between-the-20s” targets may be condensing around Smith-Schuster, the red zone is up for grabs. Mahomes looked to six different pass-catchers when the Chiefs got into scoring position. If their play rate drops, we have to expect JJSS’s efficiency to hold (narrator: it can’t).

Kareem Hunt has the most stable workload with waiver-wire consideration. After taking on a 75.0% rushing share, Hunt’s domination of the carries (with a third of the RB targets) should have him in the low-end RB2 conversation after the bye. And with the Chiefs set to face the 49ers in Week 7 (20th in rushing EPA allowed), Hunt’s path to fantasy production is much clearer than the ancillary options for the Chiefs.

The Jets move on from HC Robert Saleh. Now what?

I had the same thought here:

Regardless of which theory you believe regarding why the Jets were the first team to move on from their head coach, removing a defensive-minded figurehead doesn’t change the offense. And, even at a glance, it’s bad.

• Pace of Play: 23rd (2024 rank), 22nd (2023 rank)

• Yards per Drive: 23rd, 28th

• EPA per Play: 24th, 28th

The Jets swapped Zach Wilson for a future Hall-of-Fame QB, added multiple pieces to the offense through the draft and free agency and are marginally better. They’re dead last in third-down conversion rate. They’re 31st in red-zone scoring efficiency.

Unfortunately, it gets worse.

Aaron Rodgers sits in the bottom 12 in middle-of-the-field throw rate and EPA per attempt when throwing there. In this era of defenses, between the hashes is where offenses can still create havoc. But the limited play designs put a cap on the offense. Even in Garrett Wilson’s 22-target outing, the underlying metrics are a concern.

• Catchable Target Rate: 68.2%

• Yards per Route Run: 1.80

• YAC per Reception: 2.8

Recall JuJu Smith-Schuster’s YPRR was at 4.48. Sure, he has Mahomes throwing him the ball. But look at his route chart compared to Wilson’s. Only three came across the field. There are no easy buttons for the Jets' passing game. However, as long as Rodgers force-feeds Wilson targets, his potential as a (low-end) WR1 is intact.

However, the systemic inefficiencies have bled into Breece Hall’s viability.

New York’s offensive line isn’t generating any push up front, and Braelon Allen has quickly forced a committee. Hall’s target share has diminished on a per-week basis since Week 2 (season-low 7.8% on Sunday), along with his floor as a fantasy producer. Without a shift in the offense, Hall may be yet another early-round RB we regret drafting by season’s end.