Yahoo Sports Fantasy Football: Sit/Start tips for Week 11 of the NFL season
Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Note that some players are targeted for DFS. Good luck with your Week 11 lineups!
Detroit Lions @ New York Giants
Start in DFS: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($18)
Start: Darius Slayton
St. Brown is tied for fifth in fantasy points per snap among WRs this season and should continue to see a ton of targets with a healthier ankle, D’Andre Swift banged up and TJ Hockenson gone. Jared Goff ranks sixth in YPA versus the blitz, and the Giants enter with the highest blitz rate in the league (and the third-highest target percentage to WRs allowed).
It’s a nice setup for Sun God this week despite playing outdoors and in cold weather, yet his Yahoo DFS salary is outside the top 15 WRs.
Slayton ranks top 12 in yards per route run, yards per target and fantasy points per target this season and gets a Lions secondary this week allowing an NFL-high 7.8 YPA. Detroit’s inability to pressure the passer should really benefit Slayton. Wan’Dale Robinson is dealing with a hamstring injury that could limit or force him to sit, so Slayton can be treated as a top-20 WR this week. I also really like Daniel Jones in this matchup.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Start in DFS: David Montgomery ($18)
Start: Marcus Mariota
Montgomery is set to see close to a full workload with Khalil Herbert on IR, and he gets a matchup indoors against a Falcons defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Moreover, Cole Kmet will play through a thigh injury, while Justin Fields has heavy legs after averaging an unsustainable 12.4 carries over the last five games. Montgomery’s fantasy upside is hurt by a lack of targets, but he could easily get 20+ touches Sunday, and defenses should start focusing on stopping Fields more. Montgomery is a top-10 RB on my board this week.
Volume has been an issue (as well as accuracy) — people are calling for rookie Desmond Ridder to take over — but Mariota remains the starter for a Falcons squad with the fourth-highest implied team total this week. The Bears have a collapsing defense that’s allowed the most yards per play (6.8!) over the last three weeks, and Mariota has quietly gotten the sixth-most fantasy points per dropback this year, so he can be started Sunday.
Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens
Start: D’Onta Foreman, Kenyan Drake
Baltimore’s defense was playing terrific before the bye, so this is a tough matchup for Baker Mayfield’s return. But Foreman was one of only two players to have a 50%+ opportunity share last week (the other was Saquon Barkley), as he’s emerged as Carolina’s featured back. Foreman is worth starting regardless of opponent given his usage.
Drake had 26 touches and acted as the Ravens’ clear lead back before the team’s bye, looking more comfortable than ever in Baltimore’s system while scoring two touchdowns. He’d be a borderline top-10 RB this week if Gus Edwards does end up sitting, which is looking more likely, but Drake is a solid fantasy start either way. The Ravens are 13-point home favorites against a Panthers defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills (in Detroit)
Start: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Devin Singletary
For whatever reason, Amari Cooper has continued to struggle mightily while playing on the road this season, helping Peoples-Jones be a top-35 WR away from home. The Browns are 7.5-point underdogs facing a Bills team whose opponents have a top-five pass rate this season, so Cleveland will be throwing more than usual Sunday in a matchup that’s been moved indoors.
Singletary has surpassed a 70% snap share in four straight games (Nyheim Hines played 8% of the snaps during his first game in Buffalo), and the Bills have the second-highest implied team total this week. The Browns have allowed the most EPA/rush through the first 10 weeks of a season since at least 2010, and opponents have the highest run rate in the league when facing the Browns outside of Cleveland this season.
Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans
Sit: Curtis Samuel
Start: Nico Collins
While Terry McLaurin has seen his target rate nearly double since Taylor Heinicke took over at QB, Samuel hasn’t eclipsed four targets in any of the past three games. Jahan Dotson returned to action recently, and Samuel was limited in practice this week with a shin injury. Moreover, Houston opponents have the lowest pass rate (47.9%) in the NFL, while WRs have the second-lowest target rate (53.6%) when facing the Texans this year.
Collins saw 10 targets during his return last week, and Brandin Cooks continues to fall out of favor in Houston while failing to see more than seven targets since Week 2. Davis Mills plays far better at home, and Houston gets a Washington team traveling during a short week. The Commanders have ceded the second-most passing scores in the league but rank second against the run in DVOA, so it’s a nice setup for volume passing from Houston. Wide receivers have the highest target rate in the NFL when facing Washington this season, so Collins has real upside this week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts
Start in DFS: Miles Sanders ($22), Jonathan Taylor ($24)
With Dallas Goedert out and AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith both banged up with leg injuries (and facing an Indy defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season), Sanders should see a ton of work Sunday. The Eagles are near touchdown favorites coming off their first loss of the season, and Colts opponents have the highest target% to running backs this year.
Taylor looked healthy last week after sitting out a game, and he gets a reeling Eagles run defense allowing 150+ rushing yards in all three games since Jordan Davis got injured. Philadelphia responded by signing both Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph this week, but Taylor saw the second-highest snap share of his career during his first game ever without Nyheim Hines last week. The Eagles have a funnel defense that ranks first against the pass but 28th versus the run, and Matt Ryan starting again also helps. Taylor is looking at a huge workload Sunday.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Start: Jets D/ST, Patriots D/ST
Mac Jones did a “full audit” during New England’s bye week — much needed, given he ranks among the bottom of the league in EPA/dropback this season. Jones is averaging 160.3 passing yards with a 1:4 TD:INT ratio over three home games this year, with one of those matchups coming against a Bears defense that’s arguably the worst in football. Meanwhile, the Jets defense is the real deal.
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Zach Wilson sports a 50.5 Passer Rating and has been picked off seven times over three games against Bill Belichick to open his career, and the QB has just one TD over three road games this season. Wilson’s completion percentage drops from 71.4% in clean pockets down to 14.6% under pressure this season, and the Patriots have the NFL’s highest pressure rate.
This should end well.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Sit: Everyone but Alvin Kamara & Chris Olave
Both offensive lines have been absolutely destroyed by injuries, and the Rams were getting the fewest yards per play this season before Cooper Kupp went down. Matthew Stafford is set to return, but his YPA has dropped 34% when throwing to anyone not named Kupp this season. Allen Robinson ranks No. 92 in yards per route run. Kamara and Olave are weekly must-starts, but all others can be benched in a matchup with a lowly 39.5-point total.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Sit: Derek Carr
Start in DFS: Courtland Sutton ($15)
Carr has struggled this season despite Las Vegas adding Davante Adams, as the QB has seen his YPA drop nearly a full yard from last season. All five of his picks have come on the road this year, and Denver remains one of the toughest places to play. The Broncos defense has a strong argument as the best in the NFL, allowing the fewest ppg (14.6) and the lowest YPA (4.9). The Broncos haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer and have ceded the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow remain out, while Adams has been limited in practice this week with an abdomen injury. The Raiders are in real turmoil.
The Broncos are dealing with some wild times themselves and are scoring the fewest points per game this season, but Sutton should benefit this week while Jerry Jeudy deals with an ankle injury. Denver is getting the second-lowest EPA/rush, and KJ Hamler is out while Kendall Hinton is questionable. Sutton saw 11 targets last week and should have no problem surpassing double digits again Sunday against a Raiders secondary allowing an NFL-high 107.0 Passer Rating; that’s better than Patrick Mahomes’ career mark. Sutton’s target share has jumped to 28.8% with Jeudy off the field this season, so he has top-five WR upside this week with Jeudy out. Sutton barely has a top-25 WR salary in Yahoo DFS.
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
Start: Dalton Schultz, Kirk Cousins
Schultz has recorded at least five catches in three straight games and could easily rank second behind only CeeDee Lamb in targets from Dak Prescott over the rest of the season. Schultz’s knee appeared healthier following Dallas’ bye last week, and Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota has one of the highest over/unders (48.5 points) on the slate. The Vikings have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends, so Schultz is an easy top-five option this week — and moving forward.
Cousins admittedly struggles under pressure, something Dallas excels at, but volume should be there. Cousins has a 7:1 TD:INT ratio with two rushing scores over four home games this season. He’s an easy top-10 QB option in a matchup that should be high scoring between two teams who rank top five in Pace.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Start in DFS: Tee Higgins ($27)
Start: Pat Freiermuth
Higgins (and Tyler Boyd) will benefit from one more game without Ja’Marr Chase and facing a Pittsburgh defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers and the second-most passing scores this season.
Freiermuth faced a New Orleans defense last week that’s been the toughest against tight ends this season, but he should benefit from Chase Claypool’s absence moving forward. With DJ Reader’s likely return, the Steelers are going to struggle running the ball and are underdogs, which should lead to more targets for Freiermuth.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Start: Kadarius Toney, Justin Herbert
Toney saw an increased role in the second half last week, and he should be a major part of KC’s offense Sunday night with Mecole Hardman on IR, JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and passing-down back Jerick McKinnon questionable. Toney is a special talent who suddenly may be the No. 1 WR catching passes from Patrick Mahomes in an Andy Reid offense with the highest team total this week.
Herbert has gotten just 5.5 YPA over the last five games, when he’s been a top-15 fantasy QB just once. But he should hopefully get Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back Sunday night, and volume should be there. This matchup has the highest total (52 points) of the week, and the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (Mexico)
Start: Elijah Mitchell, Rondale Moore
Mitchell looked fully healthy last week while racking up 20 opportunities during his first action since the season opener. He won’t get that many touches every week while sharing the backfield with Christian McCaffrey, but the 49ers are one of the run-heaviest teams in football and get a plus matchup Monday night. Projections are forecasting 82% Niner fans for the Cardinals “home” game in Mexico, and Mitchell should once again benefit from a positive game script, as San Francisco is an 8-point favorite against an Arizona team that might be starting Colt McCoy again at quarterback.
No matter who starts at QB for Arizona, Moore should be busy either way with Zach Ertz out and DeAndre Hopkins questionable with a hamstring injury. The 49ers are tough to run against but have allowed the most fantasy points to the slot over the last eight weeks (and over the last month), where Moore has run 56% of his routes this season.
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