Advertisement

Fantasy Football: 4 QBs to fade in 2024 drafts

yahoo sports fantasy staff
·4 min read

Beware! Not all players will return their promised value in 2024 fantasy football drafts? The team at Yahoo Fantasy identifies four quarterback fades to consider avoiding at their current ADP.

Yahoo ADP: 46.7

I don't know any pundits who are down on Richardson, but some analysts are taking Richardson to the moon in the summer draft season. In fact, my esteemed colleague Dalton Del Don ranks Richardson as his No. 1 quarterback. I realize Richardson links with head coach Shane Steichen, one of the most admired play-callers around. I also realize Richardson did some fun stuff last year before getting hurt.

But we're also talking about a player with four games of NFL experience, on the heels of a brief and erratic Florida career that included a mere 393 pass attempts. I see the potential for Richardson, but he's commonly being drafted around his ceiling, and I'm unlikely to write that kind of ticket for a player who's scarcely played since high school. If you want an exciting young mobile quarterback at a more reasonable price, consider Jayden Daniels. — Scott Pianowski

Yahoo ADP: 58.0

Burrow suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year no NFL QB has ever experienced before. He was having “good days and bad days” in May, although dealing with an injury in training camp is nothing new for Burrow.

Injuries aside, Burrow has other red flags. Even if we completely write off his shockingly poor first six games last season (5.3 YPA!) thanks to his calf injury, the overall change in Cincinnati’s offense hints at a bigger problem. Burrow has become a check-down artist since opposing defenses started employing two-high safeties at a high rate. He ranked 38th in downfield passing rate in 2022 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last season, and reports out of Bengals camp suggest more of the same in 2024. Quarterbacks can be successful with a low aDOT, but truly elite fantasy production becomes a lot tougher (see: Patrick Mahomes), especially without running.

Burrow was terrific after Cincinnati’s bye when healthy last season, and it’s possible the Bengals pass more frequently with Joe Mixon gone. But Burrow is unlikely to run much at all at this stage of his career, and he’s managed just 6.98 YPA since 2022 (26 games) while consciously throwing underneath far more. There’s risk here even beyond the injury history.

Burrow is being drafted as the QB8 in Yahoo leagues, right around Kyler Murray and 40 picks earlier than Jayden Daniels — two dual-threat QBs with higher fantasy upside who don’t have to face the Ravens, Steelers and Browns’ defenses 35% of their schedule. — Dalton Del Don

Yahoo ADP: 103.8

With the extreme depth at quarterback this year, your goal should be to draft a quarterback for upside rather than play it safe. Take a risk and draft a quarterback who can realistically finish as a top-five option. If your quarterback underwhelms, there will be plenty of solid streaming options on waivers. I’m fading quarterbacks that simply lack the rushing upside to finish as a top-five quarterback and my biggest fade is Tua Tagovailoa.

In addition his lack of rushing upside, Tua struggles to produce fantasy points in games against tough defenses and cold weather games. Tua’s playoff schedule is against Houston, San Francisco and Cleveland. In the games leading up to the playoffs, he faces New England, plays at Green Bay in a potential weather game, and faces the Jets. Low-end QB1 is Tua’s best case scenario and you’ll be forced to abandon him before Week 12. — Tera Roberts

Yahoo ADP: 43.2

It's difficult to fade Stroud given the strength of his receiving corps; the opportunity to throw to the trio of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell is nothing to scoff at, and it should lead to continued efficiency in the passing game and likely, an increase in touchdown production. But will it be enough to make up the lack of edge he gives in terms of rushing?

Keep in mind that there have been just two quarterbacks to finish top five at the position with fewer than 200 rushing yards over the past five seasons: Tom Brady (2021) and Aaron Rodgers (2021, 2020). Stroud, meanwhile, has never rushed for over 200 yards in a single season (even dating back to high school). As much as I hate fading a guy I could reasonably see finishing as the real-life NFL MVP, there's just not a high-enough likelihood that he returns significant value being drafted as early as he is.

I'd prefer spending up a round earlier on Lamar Jackson (ADP of 34.9) or taking Anthony Richardson around the same area as Stroud is going off the board or holding off for Kyler Murray, who is being drafted about a round later in Yahoo leagues. — Kate Magdziuk