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Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Is it time to worry about Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce?

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·7 min read

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player's performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.

LaPorta's target share has dropped from 21.1% as a rookie down to 9.9 this season, as the emergence of Jameson Williams has hurt his fantasy value. LaPorta was due for touchdown regression after cashing in eight touchdowns on 11 red-zone targets as a rookie, and he’s seen just one RZ look over the first two home games, where he scored 10 of his 11 TDs last season. Detroit will perform better inside the red zone, but to this point, Jared Goff has been horrible.

LaPorta’s slow start could also be blamed on a late preseason ankle injury, and he’d quickly see a big boost should Amon-Ra St. Brown’s injury force him to miss time. That said, some panic is warranted since LaPorta cost a top-30 pick, and he plays on a run-first Lions squad with two teammates who currently rank top five in first read targets this season. Trey McBride and possibly Brock Bowers now have stronger profiles moving forward.

Kelce has already matched his number of games (two) with fewer than seven PPR points in 2023. His streak of recording three-plus catches ended at an NFL-record 114 games Sunday, dating back to Patrick Mahomes’ second career start. Rashee Rice has clearly emerged as Kansas City’s top pass catcher. Kelce turns 35 years old next month, and sometimes the cliff comes fast.

On the positive side, Kelce is still running a lot of routes and had a 41-yard catch called back by penalty last week. He’s coming off a couple of tougher matchups, and most fantasy tight ends are disappointing to open the season while passing stats are remarkably down across the league — Mahomes finished with his fewest passing yards (151) during any healthy game of his career Sunday. Moreover, Marquise Brown is out for the season, Isiah Pacheco is sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, and rookie Xavier Worthy is a big play threat but unlikely to command targets as a rookie. Thanks in part to a huge left tackle problem, Mahomes sports the lowest aDOT in the league, so Kelce should be busy on a pass-heavy offense missing Pacheco.

Kelce is unlikely to finish as the TE1 like he was drafted in Yahoo leagues, but he’ll have an opportunity to remain plenty productive.

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Michael Pittman & Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Pittman had a top-50 ADP in Yahoo drafts, but he’s been just the WR73 in fantasy points per game over the first two weeks despite Josh Downs being out. Pittman has seen a healthy 15 targets, but none have come in the red zone or deep downfield (his aDOT ranks 49th among WRs).

Pittman has now failed to record 10 PPR fantasy points in five straight games, and his target competition is growing. Alex Pierce has emerged as the team’s top deep threat, Adonai Mitchell will continue to develop and Downs is likely to return soon.

Anthony Richardson might be the most exciting player in the league, but his raw passing hurts Pittman. After catching 8-of-10 targets for 97 yards and a TD in their first game together last season, the duo have since connected on 12-of-27 scoreless targets for 97 yards. Pittman’s panic level is high.

Jonathan Taylor was already in danger of losing rushing scores to his QB, but his lack of use on passing downs has become worrisome; Taylor saw zero snaps during the fourth quarter Sunday, losing work to Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson with the Colts playing from behind. Taylor can struggle in pass protection, and Shane Steichen doesn’t sound like he regrets the decision. There’s concern that Taylor is more of an RB2 in fantasy if he’s losing high-value touches.

Moreover, Indianapolis had the ball fewer than 20 minutes during their Week 2 loss in Green Bay. The Colts use a fast pace, but they’ve run the fewest plays on offense while allowing the most on defense, which isn’t exactly an ideal recipe for fantasy success for Pittman and Taylor.

Wilson has disappointed those who spent a first-round pick on him through two weeks. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a game with a concerning passing chart and has targeted his running backs 33% of the time while returning from Achilles surgery, but panic should remain low on Wilson. Week 1 saw the lowest time of possession game (21:20) of Rodgers’ career, while Week 2 was another tough road matchup against an underrated Titans defense that’s shut down WRs to open the year.

Wilson‘s route participation (100%), target share (29%), first-read target share (35%) and air yards share (45%) are elite, and he remains one of the league’s best young wideouts. Wilson has been the WR35, but he’s the WR10 in expected fantasy points; he’s much more likely to start realizing those fantasy points with Rodgers this season. Wilson has a higher WOPR than Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins and Rashee Rice, and New York may have to pass more with Haason Reddick holding out and Jermaine Johnson out for the season on defense.

Wilson is a strong buy-low candidate in fantasy leagues.

Kirk has seen fewer targets (seven) than teammates Brian Thomas (eight) and Gabe Davis (10), who are both newcomers to Jacksonville. Kirk ran 86% of his routes from the slot in Week 2 and ranked 103 out of 104 WRs in yards per route run. While the rookie Thomas has emerged as the team’s possible WR1, Kirk not producing while Evan Engram was out last week is his biggest red flag; Kirk averaged 40% more fantasy points with Engram off the field last season.

Kirk had a short TD catch nullified by a penalty in Week 2, but his panic level is high given his ADP (WR32).

McLaurin was a top-25 pick in Yahoo leagues, but he’s the WR76 through the first two weeks. Rookie Jayden Daniels is an electric runner, but he’s the newest quarterback to drag McLaurin’s fantasy value down. Daniels has thrown the ball just 29% of the time when pressured this season, with 60% the league average.

An NFL-high 37.9% of Washington’s WR targets have come behind the line of scrimmage, with 11% the league average. Daniels has the second-lowest aDOT (5.2 yards) among quarterbacks and somehow has the third-fewest pass attempts outside the pocket despite the third-most dropbacks ending there. Daniels is averaging 3.3 yards per attempt to McLaurin but 9.0 to everyone else.

McLaurin belongs on fantasy benches.

Caleb Williams has looked flat-out awful. His 3.0 net YPA is the worst over the first two weeks of any season over the last decade. Williams has five fewer fantasy points than Bryce Young did over his first two NFL starts. He’s right there with Young for the league’s highest percentage of pressures converted into sacks (31%) this season. Williams is the only QB without a single completion thrown at least 15 yards downfield. It's not all the rookie’s fault, as Chicago has shaky coaching, questionable roster construction and a poor offensive line.

Meanwhile, D'Andre Swift has faced eight-plus defenders in the box on just 8.3% of his runs (the fifth-lowest rate in the league) but somehow has just 48 rushing yards on 24 carries. Swift has the highest percentage of rush attempts for a loss or no gain (38%) in the league. Rome Odunze is playing through an MCL sprain, and Keenan Allen is already injured. DJ Moore is demonstrably frustrated with his new quarterback, and Cole Kmet is splitting routes with Gerald Everett.

The Bears have a legit defense, but the panic level is high for their entire offense.