Fantasy Football: Drafting suspended players

It is that time of year again — late July to early August. Players have reported and training camps are in full swing. Football is back on top of everyone’s mind and that means the fantasy season is just around the corner. The more eager fantasy football owners are already starting to think about their teams and who they are going to fill their rosters with. Football is no longer on the back burner.

Over the past few weeks, three major suspension updates have been announced. Le’veon Bell, Tom Brady and Josh Gordon are all set to serve four game sentences to open the season. Suspensions are always problematic, especially when they are at the expense of fantasy studs like Bell, Brady and Gordon.

Suspended players can create quite a hassle to fantasy rosters. Injuries are inevitable, bad performances happen and players emerge at the expense of other’s roster spots. There is a lot that can happen during a football season, so why go looking for trouble, even if they are big ticket names? Some people avoid the suspended like the plague while others rush to take advantage of their falling draft stock. It begs the question, how should one handle these suspensions from a fantasy standpoint with draft season right around the corner?

The first 13 weeks of the fantasy season are spent building leverage for the playoffs. The goal is to earn a first round bye and an easier path through the playoffs to the championship. There is no point to think ahead without first considering how to get there. It is not wise to forfeit the present for the future, because there might not be a future to be had. The best thing a fantasy owner can do is focus on the now and what can be done to win games week to week.

There are two kinds of roster management: making the moves you need to and making the moves you want to. The weeks forfeited during a suspension are important and valuable. Once a suspended player is drafted, it creates roster holes that need to be plugged with handcuffs and fill-ins. Picking up these plug-ins usually comes at the expense of other positions. Drafting a suspended player will cost fantasy owners two roster positions — one for the fill-in and one for the player who is suspended.

The NFL is always changing and spending for the future now is a risk. If something were to happen to either a suspended player or his handcuff or fill-in, the consequences could be catastrophic enough to jeopardize an entire fantasy season. That being said, no fantasy season was ever won without some sort of risk being taken. It is not possible to win without taking a chance every now and then, whether that is drafting a suspended player or adding someone from the waiver wire.

If you don’t take a big shot, you’ll never hit one; take a chance. It is important that the chances that are taken are well thought out and planned. Big shots are practiced. Don’t take risks lightly and willy-nilly. The best moves are calculated and measured with preparation. If a fantasy owner makes the wrong move they could be playing catchup all year, but if they make the right one they could be well on their way to a first round bye.

Due to their suspensions, Bell, Brady and Gordon appear to be alluring options at their discounted values. Given their projected draft positions, it is possible to draft all three on the same team. Keep in mind that with all three, contingency plans must be made and put in place if drafted.

At one point in their careers, each Bell, Brady and Gordon have finished as a top-two overall guy at their respective position from a fantasy aspect. Each has seen their draft stock fall and become discounted upon the announcement of their suspensions. Many fantasy owners have already begun working out ways to take advantage of the situation. Taking advantage will make for a difficult task, considering for each of these guys drafted, a roster spot for them and their plug-in will have to be held for four weeks.

There is obviously something more to Bell, Brady and Gordon, if not their fantasy value would have dropped to nothing at all upon the announcements of their suspensions. Bell is an unequivocal top running back, when healthy, and is a great value pick in the second round. Brady was the second best quarterback overall in fantasy last year and is undoubtedly a future hall of famer — with a better cast around him this season, he has a ridiculously cheap value price with a 10th round tender. Gordon has top wide receiver potential but comes with inherent risk and is a steal in the middle rounds of the draft.

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Fantasy Football: Where to draft Bell, Brady and Gordon

Le’Veon Bell

There have been too many drug-related headlines coming out of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ locker room the past few years. Bell is just the latest. He’s no stranger to this process. At the start of the 2015 season, Bell was given a three-game suspension for a substance and conduct violation, which Commissioner, Roger Goodell, reduced to two. He is now facing a four-game suspension after not appearing for multiple drug tests. Bell is appealing his suspension and is confident his suspension will be dropped. Currently there is no scheduled date for his appeal but it is expected to be heard by the start of the season.

If Bell’s suspension is not overturned, he will miss the first four games of the season. Coming off major knee surgery, an extra four weeks to recover and rehab may not be the worst thing for Bell. He was injured during week eight of the season last year and tore the MCL and PCL in his right knee. Bell has an extensive injury history and has been hurt at some point during all three seasons he’s spent in the NFL.

Prior to his suspension his skill set and talent had him as the best player heading into fantasy football in 2016. Before the announcement Bell was projected by most as the top running back in fantasy and many’s top overall pick heading into the fantasy season. He is one of the league’s most complete backs and despite only playing in 12 games, could outrush all but the NFL’s top five leading rushers.

According to Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post, Bell was projected to rush for 1,147 yards and scored nine touchdowns, along with 576 receiving yards with three receiving touchdowns, in 2016 — good enough for 238.1 fantasy points in a standard 12-team league. Factoring in for his suspension, Bell’s total fantasy production for 12 games would be 178.6 points or 14.9 points per game. Matthew Berry of ESPN, projects Bell at 188 points in 12 games this season, which comes to just under 15.7 points per game.

Most experts have agreed that Bell is a late first round, easy second round pick, but no later. If he falls to the third, he is a no brainer steal at that price. For those who do draft Bell, DeAngelo Williams is a must own handcuff. With news of Bell’s suspension, Williams’ stock has risen to that of an RB26 overall and now figures to be a 7th or 8th round pick. Combined with Bell, Williams becomes a 6th rounder. To ensure he is handcuffed it is a good idea to reach for him a round early.

Williams had the same consistency rate and put up similar production from what was expected out of Bell last season. Williams was expected to have an increased role this year as it was, based on the success he built in 2015. There is a chance Bell and Williams could split the workload in some fashion, upon Bell’s return, in order to keep him healthy and fresh. Bell should still see the majority of the load but Williams could be rewarded with extra touches for his work.

ADP (average draft position): Late 1st-round through early 2nd-round

Handcuffs and Fill-in Guys: DeAngelo Williams, Melvin Gordon

Risks: Injury prone; been injured every year of his NFL career

Strengths: Top running back when healthy

Games impacted by suspension: Week 1 at Washington Redskins, Week 2 versus Cincinnati Bengals, Week 3 at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 4 versus Kansas City Chiefs

Bell returns to action in week five at home versus the New York Jets. It’s thought he will resume his workhorse role when he does.

Tom Brady

Things have moved in one big circle and are right back to where they were last July. Brady, the NFL and especially Commissioner Goodell, cannot seem to get past the Deflategate incident, much to the chagrin of fans. Fast forward one year later and Brady finds himself in the same position; facing a four game suspension while his draft stock is falling. The only difference this time is that he dropped his appeal to fight the suspension.

Conceding the suspension, Brady will miss more than a fourth of the fantasy season, during which time he is not allowed to have contact with coaches or teammates and is not allowed on the premises or use of any team facilities. He cannot engage in any team related activities or discussions. After leaving the team facilities at the end of preseason on September third, Brady will not be allowed back to Gillette Stadium until the third of October in preparation of week five.

In the meantime, Brady is going to find someone that is familiar, but no longer affiliated with the team to work with — somebody who has something left in the tank and is acquainted with the New England Patriots’ offense. Deion Branch and Troy Brown are a couple of names that have been floating around. Finding a throwing partner and alternate facility to workout in, should not be much of a problem for Brady.

It will be business as usual for the Patriots who have the ability to just plug-and-play guys. Jimmy Garoppolo will start for Brady, much like Brady did for Drew Bledsoe back in 2001, when he claimed starting role — though under different circumstances — and then never relinquished the job after getting ahold of it. If Garoppolo excels might Brady be the one on his way to Buffalo next season, like Bledsoe before him?

Brady played in all 16 games last season and finished as the number two overall fantasy quarterback in standard leagues. Brady finished the season with 335 points only behind Cam Newton’s 373. Factor in a four-game suspension and Brady figures to have put up 251 points, that would have ranked him 15th at quarterback and put him behind Alex Smith. Brady’s suspension is going to drop him in the rankings. He could be a top 10 fantasy quarterback and possibly as high as a top five — ultimately, Brady is a top five to 10 fantasy quarterback.

Even while only playing 12 games, Brady is still a quarterback one with the Patriots. The bigger concern when drafting Brady will be the health of Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski. The suspension gives the soon to be 39-year-old quarterback a chance to rest and stay fresh later into the season.

According to CBS Sports, Brady should be considered a low-end fantasy quarterback one, worthy of a middle-round pick. Ken Daube of ESPN ranks Brady as the 61st overall fantasy player in the draft which equates to a late fifth round, sixth or early seventh round pick in standard 12-team leagues. He also projects to be the third highest ranked quarterback from the time he becomes eligible in week five, to the end of the season. Fox Sports‘ Ryan Fowler, believes Brady should not be drafted until the sixth round or later, with a handcuff or fill-in, being taken in the ninth or tenth.

As with Bell, it is a good idea to handcuff Brady with his backup. Garoppolo looked good in preseason and limited regular season appearances. He has never started an NFL game, but has appeared in 11 of them. Garoppolo has attempted 31 passes for 188 yards and one touchdown. It is a small sample size to work from and difficult for anyone to reliably predict how the young quarterback will perform in replacement of Brady.

The Patriots will lean on Garoppolo to start the season. The young 24-year-old quarterback has been in the system for a while and should be well prepared when he fills in. Right now it is anyone’s guess as to what degree he will succeed, but the general feeling and mood around camp is hopefully optimistic. No matter how successful Garoppolo is, Brady will resume his starting role once he returns.

ADP (average draft position): Late 5th-round through the early 7th-round

Handcuffs and Fill-in Guys: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins

Risks: Garoppolo does the unthinkable in Brady’s absence and performs so well the Patriots cannot afford to bench him.

Strengths: One of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time

Games impacted by suspension: Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals, Week 2 versus Miami Dolphins, Week 3 versus Houston Texans, Week 4 versus Kansas City Chiefs

Brady returns to action in week five on the road against the Cleveland Browns, where Josh Gordon will also be making his season debut. Expect Brady to be fired up coming back from suspension and picking up where he left off in 2015.

Josh Gordon

As of July 25th, Browns’ troubled wide receiver Josh Gordon was reinstated, but will be suspended for the first games of the season. He will be suspended for yet another failed substance violation. Gordon, who has been twice suspended in the past for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, will be reinstated on a conditional basis. Another failed test will see him exit the league for good.

Commissioner Goodell felt this case needed some leeway and has allowed Gordon to workout with the team and has been allowed to do it at team facilities. He can take part in all of training camp and preseason and is allowed to participate in all team meetings and activities while being on location at the team’s facility during his suspension.

The Browns are committed to helping Gordon every step of the way. They want the young receiver to turn things around and succeed. They have a lot invested in Gordon, but ultimately his future is his responsibility. He has been given one last chance to be one of the best wide receivers of his generation. One small slip up could cost Gordon not only his season, but his career, while creating headaches for fantasy owners everywhere.

The last time Gordon played a snap in the NFL was 22 months ago. He has not played a game since 2014. Gordon was suspended for two games in 2013, 10 games in 2014 and the entire 2015 season, all for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. The next time he will be able to take a snap in a regular season game; will come in week five against New England.

After missing the first two games of the 2013 season, Gordon emerged as one of the best and most productive wideouts in the NFL. He was the best receiver in fantasy with a league leading 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns. The 22-year-old finished as a top 14 or better receiver each and every week of the season. After his impressive breakout 2013 campaign, Gordon played just five games of uninspired football in 2014.

After a good 2013, disappointing 2014, and nonexistent 2015, fantasy owners have been left scratching their heads when it comes to what to expect from Gordon in 2016. It will most likely be some combination of 2013 and 2014 and hopefully none of 2015. There is plenty of upside here. He has the potential to be a top-20 wideout and finish as a wide receiver one or two this year.

Even if Gordon doesn’t produce at the same pace as 2013, he is still talented enough to put up numbers that warrant fantasy attention. He fits well on fantasy teams that are planning on drafting wide receiver heavy and provide plenty of insurance. Taking Cleveland’s quarterback situation into consideration, that puts him in wide receiver three discussions, with upside, for fantasy purposes. Expect production similar to that of the Bengals, A.J. Green. When at his peak, Gordon can be one of the top receivers in the league.

Prior to his reinstatement, Gordon was nothing more than a late round flier or lottery pick. However, Goodell’s announcement of Gordon’s reinstatement and upcoming suspension have put him on the mid-round radar in most fantasy formats. According to Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports, Gordon’s ADP should be around the seventh round in most leagues. Sports Illustrated’s Michael Beller, has Gordon as his number thirty overall wide receiver just behind Jarvis Landry and Donte Moncrief and right ahead of Jordan Matthews and Allen Hurns.

Hugh Johnson or the Denver Post, feels that Gordon makes for a great mid-round gamble in as a sixth or seventh round choice. Anything beyond the seventh is a steal. Some have him going as high as the fifth, but none have him lower than the seventh. Gordon fits in between somewhere as a high risk, high reward pick. He makes for a roll of the dice, but if news out of training camp and preseason is good, Gordon may be worth the risk. He is worth drafting as a low-end number three fantasy wide receiver.

The wide receiver position has gotten deeper and upon Gordon’s return from suspension he will have a lot of work to do to prove himself. The Browns loaded up on wide receivers in this year’s draft, including fellow Baylor alumn Corey Coleman, Rashard Higgins from Colorado State, Ricardo Louis of Auburn and Jordan Payton out of UCLA. After a breakout season tight end, Gary Barnidge returns along with Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell. The Browns’ offense is not short on talent and Gordon’s path back to the field may have gotten a little more crowded and challenging.

In 2013 Gordon maintained 27 percent of the team’s offensive workload. He will need to maintain that same kind of production to find similar success in 2016. This season, however, Gordon is facing greater competition at wide receiver than in year’s past. He most likely will find himself competing with Barnidge and Coleman for targets. They will have a four-game head start on Gordon, but he will be allowed to practice with the team and has a chance to develop a rapport and reunite with former Baylor teammate, quarterback Robert Griffen III.

ADP (average draft position): Late 5th-round through early 7th-round

Handcuffs and Fill-in Guys: Jarvis Landry, Michael Crabtree, Allen Hurns, Jordan Matthews

Risks: Highly susceptible to violating league’s substance policy; one more violation will see him booted from the NFL

Strengths: Fantasy superstar; at his peak is one of the top wide receivers in the league

Games impacted by suspension: week 1 at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 2 versus Baltimore Ravens, Week 3 at Miami Dolphins, Week 4 at Washington Redskins.

At his peak, Gordon can be one of the best wide receivers in the league. He is a fantasy superstar and lethal receiving threat who plays every facet of the position with unmatched talent. What form will Gordon be in when he returns in week 5? Fantasy owners will have to wait until October ninth to get their first real glimpse at what he brings in 2016.

Rhythm and Wrap Up

Drafting a suspended player naturally comes with risks, albeit some more than others. Brady looks to be the safest play of the three, but makes the least sense to draft of the group. Carrying two quarterbacks is a massive strain on a roster as you can only start one quarterback at a time. There is only one quarterback position on a fantasy roster.

Bell arguably has the highest ceiling, but does carry the risk of injury. He has yet to make it through a full season healthy, but when he is, he is one of the top running backs in the league. There is little to worry about here and may even have his suspension overturned.

Gordon makes for the riskiest proposition, but has incredible upside potential. However, if fantasy owners do not have the proper wide receiver talent and depth on the their roster, taking a chance on Gordon could prove costly. He is too risky of a play to rely on him as a wide receiver one or two without the necessary backup. Gordon makes sense as a wide receiver three or four, but relying on him to be more is a shaky gamble.

Bell, Brady and Gordon all provide risks to winning a fantasy championship, that could either pay off in spades or be the downfall of a season. Drafting any one of these players hampers a fantasy owner’s flexibility in the draft and on their rosters. It locks them into having to draft certain players while eating up valuable roster spots.

Holding these spots for the first four weeks of a fantasy season could prove costly. The best players are available in the waiver wire during this span while rosters are still getting sorted out. Players breakout and assert themselves into roles throughout the season, but especially during the first four weeks. Drafting a suspended player and holding roster spots, creates lost opportunity on the waiver wire that is difficult to make up.

When taking chances it is best to think them through thoroughly and plan accordingly. Taking a chance on Bell, Brady or Gordon, could just be the gamble a fantasy owner needs to put them over the top and winning the championship, but it could just as likely end up costing owner’s a chance in the big dance. Fantasy championship

– Miles Dittberner, is a Managing Editor at cover32 and covers the Minnesota Vikings. Like and follow vikings32 on Facebook and Twitter.

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