Fantasy cheat sheet for Daytona 500

Jimmie Johnson ended 2016 with his seventh title, but don’t expect big things from him at Daytona. (Getty)

The start of the NASCAR season is here, so we have some tips to help you set your Daytona 500 fantasy lineup.

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Special to Yahoo Sports
By Dan Beaver

1. Denny Hamlin: His Daytona 500 win last year capped off five consecutive results of sixth or better at Daytona. He was also among the strongest in this year’s Clash.

2. Joey Logano: He saw trouble brewing ahead of him in the Clash and had the maturity to back out of the conflict. That allowed him to sweep around the crash and win.

3. Kyle Busch: He swept the top five at Daytona last year. He almost certainly would have repeated at Talladega if he had not chosen to ride in the back and protect his playoff points.

4. Kevin Harvick: He and SHR make the move to Ford this year, which seems odd to fans given his long career with Chevrolet. It has provided some solid drafting partners among the Penske pair.

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: He’s no longer the Pied Piper of Daytona, but he still commands a lot of respect in the draft. Drivers would rather follow him than get passed by the pack.

6. Austin Dillon: He’s the only driver to sweep the top 10 on plate tracks last year. If not for a single bad race at Talladega in 2015, he’d be perfect in regard to top-15s.

7. Kurt Busch: If not for last-lap contact with Logano in turn four of last summer’s Coke Zero 400, Busch would enter this weekend with a nine-race, top-12 streak on plate tracks.

8. Martin Truex Jr.: The Furniture Row drivers had a terrible time getting through technical inspection last weekend. Once they get the templates straightened out, they will find their Daytona rhythm.

9. Brad Keselowski: He came within a lap of securing a top-five in the Advance Auto Parts Clash. His contact with Hamlin killed his momentum and sent him home sixth.

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10. Clint Bowyer: He has long been one of the best values on restrictor-plate, superspeedways. Even in modest equipment last year, he managed to score two top-10s on this track type.

11. Kyle Larson: He struggled through his first two years on plate tracks because he couldn’t avoid trouble. Last year, he had three top-10s in four races.

12. Chase Elliott: He won his second straight Daytona 500 pole last Sunday. Speed has not been the issue, however, and he needs to get to the end of race on this track without damage.

13. Daniel Suarez: He accounted for himself well in the Clash. He was a disciplined, team player, but there is a huge difference between that experience and the Daytona 500.

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: He earned an early reputation as a strong plate racer with top-12 finishes in his first three Daytona starts. He failed to earn another until last summer’s fifth.

15. Ryan Blaney: He finished 19th in last year’s Daytona 500, but that was his worst result on a plate track all season. He topped out at ninth in the Geico 500 at Talladega.

16. Jimmie Johnson: He has not cracked the top 15 on a plate track in five starts. In Sunday’s Clash, he spun twice with a loose condition that was eerily similar to what all the Hendrick cars faced last year.

17. Ty Dillon: He runs the risk of being overshadowed by fellow ROTY contenders Suarez and Jones, so he needs a solid finish in this wild-card event to set the tone for the year.

18. Trevor Bayne: Roush-Fenway Racing scaled back to a two-car operation. Early indications at Daytona are that their focus on the Young Guns has given Bayne and Stenhouse added confidence.

19. Aric Almirola: He can often get overlooked on plate tracks, but in the past three years he has earned eight results of 16th or better that includes a Coke Zero 400 win.

20. Erik Jones: Rookies are often more fragile than veterans and if Furniture Row continues to have tech issues that limit their track time, Jones is the one who will feel the effects most.

21. Michael Waltrip: He will make his last Cup start in this year’s Daytona 500. NASCAR is filled with improbable storylines and he could shock the field with a top-15 finish.

22. Michael McDowell: He is one of the hidden gems on plate tracks. Equally important, this team surged at the end of 2016 and could become fixtures in the middle of the pack.

23. Matt Kenseth: He has had several strong runs on plate tracks, but something always seems to happen. His last two years on this course type ended with an average of 25th.

24. AJ Allmendinger: He has not been all that bad at Daytona in recent years, but he rarely breaks into the top 10. Look for a result in the middle of the pack and plan accordingly.

25. Jamie McMurray: He won the 2010 Daytona 500. Unfortunately, he has earned only three top-15s in the 13 races that followed, so it is difficult to trust him.

26. Paul Menard: In 2011/2012, he swept the top 15 at Daytona with three top-10s. He has not bettered that mark since and has an average of 26th in his last eight races there.

27. Kasey Kahne: Six of his last eight Daytona starts show results outside the top 25. Much of that is due to bad luck, but that is a variable that has to be considered on plate tracks.

28. Danica Patrick: The 2017 season is going to be critical for Patrick. It is time for her to step up and score top-10s for an organization that is more than capable of doing just that.

29. David Ragan: He gained confidence on the plate tracks early in his career while racing for Jack Roush. He kept that attitude even as he moved into more modestly-funded rides.

30. Ryan Newman: He can be crash prone at Daytona; 12 of his last 17 attempts on this 2.5-mile speed palace have ended with his car dented and battered.

31. Cole Whitt: Anything can happen on a plate track. Whitt finished 11th in his most recent Daytona attempt, but that is the only time he has cracked the top 20 there.

32. Chris Buescher: It is going to take a little while before fantasy owners know what to expect of Buescher in this second JTG-Daugherty Racing entry. For now, handicap him strictly by the numbers.

33. Landon Cassill: He has earned seven top-15s in his 227-race career. All but two of those came on restrictor-plate, superspeedways.

34. Brendan Gaughan: He must feel like he has already won something at Daytona. He posted the fastest time in qualification among non-chartered teams. That lifted a lot of weight from his shoulders.

35. Elliott Sadler: With the second-fastest time among non-chartered teams, Sadler knows that he will race on Sunday. This team is only part time this year and needs the exposure.

36. Joey Gase: His previous Cup experience has been limited to a handful of short, flat tracks and unrestricted, intermediate speedways. Daytona is something completely new, so he is an unknown.

37. Jeffrey Earnhardt: There will be two Earnhardts in the Daytona 500 this year, but they are unlikely to see much of one another in race conditions.

38. Matt DiBenedetto: He has been better on drivers’ tracks like Bristol and Phoenix than wild-card superspeedways, which will make him a solid dark horse in a few weeks.

39. Reed Sorenson: He’s a strong enough driver to command a little more respect, but his team is lacking the resources needed to keep him in the lead draft.

40. Corey LaJoie: He does not have the experience needed to make the Daytona 500, but his team does. If he listens to his crew and tucks tightly into Thursday’s draft, he’ll be fine.

41. DJ Kennington: Until only a couple of years ago NASCAR started more than 40 cars on plate tracks. That is what it would take to get Kennington into the Daytona 500.

42. Timmy Hill: He has made 48 previous Cup starts. None of them have come at Daytona and considering that he has to race his way into the show, that probably won’t change this week.

For more analysis, go to DanBeaver.com or follow him on Twitter