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Fantasy Basketball Trade Analyzer: Buy-low opportunities for Trey Murphy III, Jalen Duren

mike barner
·5 min read

We saw our first noteworthy NBA trade, with Dennis Schroder being dealt to the Warriors. As trade rumors continue to swirl, there are also trades to be made in fantasy basketball. Let's discuss some players to buy low on, sell high on or hold based on their current production.

Buy

It has been a disappointing season for Duren, who is averaging 8.9 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. That's not terrible, but it's a far cry from the 13.8 points and 11.6 rebounds per game that he averaged last season. The big difference is that he averaged 29 minutes per game last season, but has averaged just 24 minutes per game this year.

When Duren gets extended run, he is usually productive. He played 32 minutes against the Heat on Monday, posting nine points and 16 rebounds. The key was, Isaiah Stewart left the game with a knee injury. Should he be forced to miss time, then Duren would have a clear path to significantly more minutes. Even if Stewart isn't out for an extended period of time, it just shows that Duren is one Stewart injury away from providing fantasy managers with a huge boost in rebounds. He might be available at a discount right now.

Murphy isn't exactly struggling. He is averaging 18.1 points per game, which is on pace to be the best mark of his career. However, he is shooting just 41.7% from the field and 32.8% from behind the arc. For his career, he has shot 45.0% from the field and 38.6% from behind the arc. Expect his efficiency to improve as the season moves along, especially from deep.

One of the main reasons to try to acquire Murphy is that injuries have contributed to the Pelicans posting a 5-22 record that has them in last place in the Western Conference. Since they aren't going to make the playoffs, they could trade away a veteran or two as the deadline approaches. If that were to be the case, then Murphy would likely continue to receive plenty of minutes and shot attempts.

Sell

Wiggins has rebounded from averaging 13.2 points per game last season to average 17.7 points per game this season. The biggest difference has been his shooting 43.8% from behind the arc. He shot just 35.8% from deep last season. His usage rate has also increased from 20.9% last season to 23.0% this season.

The Warriors needed more scoring from Wiggins with Klay Thompson no longer in the picture. However, the addition of Schroder could result in Wiggins taking a slight hit in his usage rate. Schroder has been locked in offensively, averaging 18.4 points per game for the Nets. That will surely go down with his new squad, but the point remains that he adds another competent scorer to the mix for the Warriors. Given that Wiggins is only averaging 4.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, any hit to his scoring contributions would deal a blow to his fantasy value.

Paul has proven to be a valuable addition for the Spurs. He has taken over as their starting point guard, averaging 9.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.7 3-pointers per game. Just as impressive is the fact that Paul has yet to miss a game this season.

Paul has not only played in every game this season, but he is averaging 28 minutes per game. Prior to this season, injuries had limited him to 65 or fewer games in each of the last three seasons. He is 39 years old, so asking him to play this many minutes per game and hold up over the course of the entire season might be much. His fantasy value is likely at its peak right now, so it might not be a bad idea to shop him to other fantasy managers who need assists.

Hold

With Paul George gone, there were plenty of shots up for grabs on the Clippers heading into this season. They have mostly been soaked up by Powell, who has a 26.8% usage rate. Not only is he shooting more, but he is doing so in efficient fashion. He is shooting 50.2% from the field and 48.4% from behind the arc, which has enabled him to average 23.5 points and 3.9 3-pointers per game.

Also benefiting Powell is that Kawhi Leonard (knee) has yet to play in a game this season. There have finally been some encouraging reports coming out of Los Angeles with Leonard progressing and becoming a limited participant in practice. However, even when he does return, he could play limited minutes for a while. There is also the chance that he goes down with an injury again, given his history. Don't panic and trade away Powell just because there have been some positive reports on Leonard. He should remain one of the Clippers' leading scorers throughout the season.

The Suns badly needed a point guard, and they did a great job filling that void by adding Jones in the offseason. With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal in the starting lineup with him, it was fair to expect that Jones might not be able to replicate the production that he had last season as one of the leading members of the Wizards. However, he hasn't missed a beat with his new team, averaging 12.8 points, 6.9 assists and 2.4 3-pointers over 32 minutes per game.

Helping Jones' cause is that the Suns have been hit hard by injuries. Durant and Beal have played only 15 games each. Beal has not played more than 60 games since the 2018-19 season. Durant has played 55 or fewer games in three of the last four seasons. It might be rare for the Suns to have all of their top three players healthy at the same time. That means they will likely continue to rely on Jones to play a significant role.