Yahoo Sports Fantasy baseball MLB free agency and trade tracker: Story chooses Red Sox
With MLB free agency back in full swing and the trade market active, we'll be tracking all the fantasy relevant moves. Fred Zinkie provides analysis on the most important transactions — check out all the latest!
Freeman gives Dodgers baseball's best lineup
We already knew that Freddie Freeman was a terrific 2022 draft pick, and that notion was further cemented when the biggest name on the free agent market joined a dynamic Dodgers lineup. The 32-year-old was previously worthy of a top-10 pick in points leagues and is now knocking on the door for that same status in roto formats. Looking at the Yahoo ADP, Freeman should move ahead of Mike Trout and Ronald Acuna Jr. while also being valued equally to Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani.
To me, the bigger story in this signing is the incredible potential of the Dodgers 2022 lineup. Last season, Los Angeles ranked fourth in the Majors (first in the National League) in runs scored. The team will now add the DH position, get a full year out of Trea Turner, likely enjoy a bounceback campaign from Mookie Betts and add the services of Freeman. On top of having three superstars who are top-15 fantasy picks, the Dodgers have a top-3 catcher (Will Smith), a 26-year-old who has won an NL MVP award (Cody Bellinger), three other players who have a top-150 Yahoo ADP (Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy) and a potential No. 9 hitter who has an ADP of 218 despite missing large chunks of most seasons (A.J. Pollock). This is the best lineup in baseball and one that most fantasy managers will want a piece of by the end of their 2022 drafts. And this absurd level of offensive prowess will spill into the fantasy value of Los Angeles starters, who will now get even more run support in their quest to pile up wins. Walker Buehler and Julio Urias are terrific fantasy aces, while Andrew Heaney is a little bit more interesting as a late-round flyer.
Correa comes to Minnesota
The signing of Carlos Correa is an important move in the world of baseball that does not carry major fantasy implications. In terms of the Twins lineup, Correa effectively replaces the recently-traded Josh Donaldson as a lineup centerpiece who will produce a mid-.800’s OPS. For Correa, being part of the Twins lineup that is roughly league average is a downgrade from his former membership in an Astros offense that led the Majors in runs scored last year. But unless the 27-year-old returned to Houston, he was likely to experience some downgrade in lineup support no matter where he signed.
In this writer’s opinion, Correa is being drafted too early in Yahoo! leagues. He has a solid-but-not-special career .277 average, has never produced a 30-homer season and doesn’t steal bases. Managers can get similar statistics from shortstops such as Willy Adames and Brendan Rodgers, who are being drafted 100+ picks later.
Trevor Story chooses Red Sox
In terms of fantasy potential, Trevor Story has found a great fit as the Red Sox's new second baseman. Fenway Park may not be on the level of Coors Field in terms of inducing offense, but it is still a favorable park for hitters. And after playing in a mediocre Rockies lineup last season, Story is now part of a group that ranked fifth last year in runs scored. No matter how manager Alex Cora organizes Story, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez, this figures to be a potent offensive group.
Story is unlikely to produce a high batting average, but he should compile 30 HR, 20 SB and 180 R+RBI, making him an excellent option in Rd. 3 of fantasy drafts. Overall, the Red Sox lineup is one that managers will want to target in their drafts, whether spending an early pick on one of the star players, a mid-round selection of Alex Verdugo or a late-round pick of Enrique Hernandez.
Rockies make surprising signing
Just when we thought that the Rockies were rebuilding, they went out and made one of the biggest signings of the 2022 offseason.
Although the current Colorado lineup is arguably their weakest group in recent years, Kris Bryant still gets a big bump by signing a seven-year deal with Colorado. Coors Field is the best offensive park in baseball, which should enable the multi-position star to post his highest batting average and homer total in several years. I was previously avoiding Bryant at his Yahoo! ADP (85 overall), but I am now interested in drafting him at that spot. Unfortunately, some managers may get carried away with Bryant in the coming days and stop factoring in his durability concerns and the fact that the Rockies' offense figures to score very few runs during road games.
The signing of Bryant will have a trickle-down impact on younger Colorado players. The guess here is that the 30-year-old will split time between the outfield, third base and designated hitter, which will take plate appearances away from Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe and possibly Brendan Rodgers. I will still draft Rodgers in Yahoo! leagues, but I’ll let the other players fall to waivers until I see some early season Colorado lineups.
Greinke comes home
Zack Greinke signing with the Royals is a feel-good story that should cause only small ripples in fantasy circles. The 38-year-old took a large step backward last season, experiencing a ratios rise while watching his strikeout rate go into deep decline. Greinke should help the Royals by logging more than 160 innings, and he could be a useful source of wins and WHIP for fantasy managers. But his ERA and strikeout total should be poor, making the right-hander only a late-round draft option in 12-team leagues and waiver-wire fodder in 10-team formats.
Atlanta makes surprising bullpen addition
The addition of Kenley Jansen to the Braves is a shocking move that will have major implications on the fantasy landscape. Atlanta was one of about a dozen teams that already had a solid stopper, as Will Smith is coming off a 2021 season in which he collected 37 saves. But in order to deepen the bullpen, Smith is apparently on board with a plan to give Jansen most of the ninth-inning opportunities this year. Atlanta may use a similar strategy to what the Dodgers did with Jansen last season when the right-hander saved 38 victories but the other relievers also combined for 18 saves. The 2022 Braves may not generate the same saves volume as the 2021 Dodgers, but I can see a scenario where Jansen earns 30 saves and Smith picks up 10. After making adjustments for this signing, I have Jansen ranked 10th among relievers and Smith ranked 25th.
The biggest winner in this signing from a fantasy perspective is Blake Treinen, who no longer needs to look over his shoulder for a possible Dodgers reunion with Jansen. Treinen was terrific last season (1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) and could be a top-five fantasy closer as the bullpen anchor on baseball’s best team.
Phillies land another big bat in Castellanos
The Phillies did exactly what they need to do to improve their post-lockout offense by adding Kyle Schwarber (more on him below) and Nick Castellanos to complement their existing stars, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. With the help of hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, Castellanos could produce a worthy follow-up to his outstanding 2021 season (.309 average, 34 homers, 100 RBIs). Castellanos is a solid option at his current Yahoo! ADP (pick 51), but he shouldn’t go any higher than that spot.
The only losers in this signing are the Phillies pitchers. Castellanos and Schwarber are both poor outfielders, but one of them will need to bring his glove to work each day. Still, the added offensive support could offset the small ERA and WHIP bump for Philadelphia starters.
Luke Voit goes West
By being traded from the Yankees to the Padres, Luke Voit ends a short-lived stint of being mixed-league irrelevant. The slugger had nowhere to fit into the Yankees lineup following the recent signing of Anthony Rizzo but now has a clear path to being the Padres designated hitter. Sure, Yankee Stadium is preferable to Petco Park for a power hitter, but the bottom line is that Voit needed to be in a lineup before he could help fantasy teams. The owner of a lifetime .867 OPS, Voit should produce more than 30 home runs, as long as he can avoid the injury woes that plagued him in 2021.
There are no losers in this deal from a fantasy perspective, as the Padres have plenty of room for Voit without having to relegate an effective player to the bench. And the addition of Voit can at least partially offset the expected half-season absence of lineup centerpiece Fernando Tatis Jr.
Schwarber finds Brotherly Love
Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies uniting on a four-year deal makes plenty of sense in both fantasy and real baseball. The slugger is a perfect fit for a Philadelphia lineup that has some stars (Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto) but lacks depth. And for Schwarber, playing half his games at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park could enable him to approach his career-best mark of 38 home runs. I now have Schwarber ranked just outside my top-100 players and am comfortable drafting him ahead of his current Yahoo ADP of 125 overall. This trade is also good news for Harper, helping to cement his status as a late first-round pick. And there is still room and time for Philadelphia to add another outfielder who can hit in the top half of their lineup.
Blue Jays swing trade for Chapman
Matt Chapman gets a clear uptick in his fantasy value by being traded to Toronto. The Blue Jays high-scoring lineup should help Chapman’s counting stats, and the slugger should get back to the 30-homer plateau with the positive park switch from Oakland to Toronto. Still, Chapman will need to prove that his skills are intact after he hit .210 with 202 strikeouts in 2021. I have moved Chapman up to 18th in my third base rankings, valuing him similarly to players such as Ryan McMahon and Ke’Bryan Hayes.
The addition of Chapman and his amazing defensive skills is also good news for Toronto’s pitchers. Although I haven’t upgraded any Blue Jays hurlers in my rankings, the addition of Chapman is a nice tiebreaker if making an on-the-clock decision between a starter such as Kevin Gausman and a pitcher on another team.
Suzuki headed to the Windy City
No matter where he signed, Seiya Suzuki was poised to make a significant fantasy baseball impact in his debut season. After all, the outfielder is in his prime (age 27) and last season hit .317 with 38 homers and 88 RBIs in the Japan Central League. But this potential star didn’t do himself any favors in fantasy circles by signing with a retooling Cubs team that has several unsettled positions in their lineup. Unless the Suzuki signing is the first of multiple major Chicago acquisitions this week, the outfielder will likely be surrounded by unproven players such as Nick Madrigal, Ian Happ, Rafael Ortega and Frank Schwindel. I’ll consider drafting Suzuki in the range of pick 120, but my guess is that enthusiasm for the newcomer will push him to an earlier spot in most upcoming drafts.
Rizzo returns to the Yankees
Sticking with the Yankees on a two-year agreement should help Anthony Rizzo to retain his current fantasy value. The heart of New York’s lineup is now loaded with run-producing sluggers, including Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Josh Donaldson and Rizzo. The 32-year-old is one of the few first basemen who can chip in a few swipes, which helps to offset the fact that he is unlikely to ever revisit his glory years, when he regularly topped the 30-homer plateau. This signing didn’t cause me to make a major move of Rizzo in my rankings, but throughout draft season I have found him to be a value pick at his Yahoo ADP (171).
The signing of Rizzo throws a bucket of cold water on the fantasy value of Luke Voit, who led the Majors in homers during 2020 but is now relegated to a bench role. Still, those who have already drafted Voit should wait a few days to let this situation play out. The 31-year-old with a career .867 OPS would be desirable to many other teams and the Yankees still have a clear need to complete a trade for a catcher.
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Rosario returns to Atlanta
Eddie Rosario finally found a home, returning to the team he recently helped win the World Series. And with a Yahoo ADP of 230th overall, the outfielder is poised to be a terrific value pick. Rosario struggled mightily during the four months he spend with Cleveland last year but has otherwise been a consistent producer during his seven-year career. If he can hit lefties well enough to stay out of a platoon, Rosario should produce 25 homers, 160 R+RBI a handful of steals and a .270 average. I see the 30-year-old as a solid option once a draft moves past pick 150.
Braves say bye to Freeman and hello to Olson
Fantasy managers and Braves fans were shocked on Monday, when Atlanta abruptly ended the Freddie Freeman era by trading for Matt Olson, who gets a small uptick in fantasy value via this transaction. Olson was likely going to a contender at some point in 2022, but getting the move over early is best for his fantasy potential, as he joins a Braves lineup that will be among the best in baseball when Ronald Acuna Jr. returns from injury. Olson should approach the 40-homer plateau and easily top the century mark in RBIs. I gave the 27-year-old a slight bump in my rankings, inserting him at 42 overall, up from 47.
The departure of Olson is another step in the A’s fire sale, and further ensures that Oakland regulars such as Sean Murphy, Matt Chapman and Ramon Laureano will be part of a below-average lineup this season.
Jesse Winker goes west to Seattle
Coming off a stellar 2021 season in which he logged a .949 OPS, Jesse Winker’s fantasy value is at an all-time high. I view the outfielder’s switch to Seattle as a horizontal move, as he will be hurt by leaving Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park but will benefit from joining a team that is putting a greater effort into fielding a strong lineup. Because Winker struggles mightily against lefties, my opinion is that he is being drafted too early in Yahoo! leagues (ADP 97) and should stay on the board for another 2-3 rounds. And I’ll give a similar analysis on Eugenio Suarez, who has an ADP of 170 but is positioned on the wrong side of 200 in my rankings.
Suarez loses some value from this trade, as he is very dependent on hitting home runs and his new park won’t help in that area. Finally, the biggest loser in this trade is Abraham Toro. Previously someone who I liked as a sleeper, Toro now appears to be a utility infielder rather than a full-time third baseman and can be left undrafted in 12-team leagues.
In Cincinnati, the teardown continues. Jake Fraley comes over from Seattle and has an interesting power-speed mix (career 9 HR, 12 SB, 280 AB) if he can earn a full-time role. That being said, Fraley is someone to monitor in April rather than select in drafts right now. Additionally, the continued weakening of the Reds roster may negatively impact the counting stats for players such as Jonathan India and Joey Votto.
Yankees and Twins swap sluggers
From the Yankees perspective, the March 13 trade with the Twins makes plenty of sense, as the club moves on from an inconsistent relationship with Gary Sanchez and fortifies their lineup with Josh Donaldson. This trade represents a positive shift in the fantasy value of Donaldson, who gets an upgrade in both home ballpark and supporting cast. While injury potential will continue to limit the 36-year-old’s draft value, he has a Yahoo ADP of 210 overall and should now be selected near pick 150. The trade also appears to open up playing time for Kyle Higashioka behind the dish, but my guess is that the Yankees will make an additional move to fortify the catcher position rather than handing a No. 1 role to a 31-year-old with a lifetime .619 OPS.
This trade is more of a head-scratcher on the Twins side, although there is speculation that the team has dealt Donaldson to clear space for a free-agent acquisition. For now, Gio Urshela and Luis Arraez both have full-time roles at the hot corner and second base respectively. Arraez continues to be waiver-wire fodder but Urshela is a fine late-round pick in 12-team leagues. For Sanchez, the negative park and lineup switch should be offset by getting a fresh start in Minnesota. Still, I recommend that fantasy managers avoid drafting Sanchez due to a projected batting average in the range of .210.
Carlos Rodon signs with the San Francisco Giants
Once a top prospect, Carlos Rodon bounced back from several underwhelming and injury-impacted seasons to be one of the best starters in baseball (2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 rate) on a per-inning basis last season. And the left-hander is now poised to continue his dominance after signing a two-year contract with the Giants. San Francisco has been among baseball’s best organizations in terms of getting the most out of their pitchers in recent years, including ranking third in the Majors last season in ERA by starting pitchers (3.44) despite not being blessed with anyone who was revered as a true ace. Backed by a winning team with a pitcher-friendly home park, Rodon should collect his share of wins and post ratios in the vicinity of a 3.00 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
Of course, durability concerns will not leave Rodon’s profile, no matter which jersey he wears in 2022. The southpaw dealt with shoulder woes during the second half of last season and did not record a start of more than five innings after July 18. In fact, Rodon has logged IL time due to some variety of left-arm injury for six consecutive seasons. The Florida native should meet the expectations of fantasy managers who limit their expectations to no more than 140 excellent innings. I have moved Rodon up to No. 28 in the 2022 SP rankings and am now comfortable drafting him near his current Yahoo ADP (94 overall).
Twins trade for Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray fared well in three seasons with the Reds, posting a 3.49 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 10.6 K/9 rate. Not surprisingly, he fared best during that three-year stretch when working away from Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park (3.25 ERA). The move to Minnesota should be a positive one for Gray, as this is a favorable park switch and the Twins seem more intent than the Reds on competing this season. With a slight rankings upgrade, Gray now squeaks into the top-40 starters and top-120 overall players in my 2022 rankings.
This trade is also indirectly good news for the fantasy value of Luis Castillo. The Cincinnati fire sale is in full swing, with Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez being dealt on Monday, and Castillo should be the next pitcher who is traded to a contender.
[Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP]
Nelson Cruz moves to NL
Although the good news is that Nelson Cruz has chosen to continue his impressive career at age 41, he did not pick the best landing spot for his fantasy value. Fantasy managers would have preferred the veteran to join a club with a homer-happy venue and stacked lineup but will instead settle for plenty of RBI opportunities behind on-base machine Juan Soto. Cruz could produce 30 long balls and drive in 90 runs, but he might struggle to cross home plate more than 70 times in a shallow Nats lineup. His current Yahoo ADP of 119 overall feels appropriate in points leagues but a little bit rich in roto formats. The signing of Cruz by the Nats also represents a slight uptick in the draft value of Soto, who now has more potential to turn his high on-base percentage into a league-leading runs scored total.
Yusei Kikuchi signs with the Toronto Blue Jays
Yusei Kikuchi has shown flashes of excellence in his big league career but has never put everything together across a full season. For example, he roared out of the gate last year with a 3.48 ERA in the first half before logging a 5.98 mark after the All-Star break. His strikeout rate stayed consistent throughout the campaign, but his control rate trended in the wrong direction when he struggled down the stretch. Now a member of a Blue Jays squad that plays out of a hitter-friendly home park and is part of an offensively-charged division, Kikuchi initially appears to be someone who should be an afterthought in 2022 drafts. But pitching coach Pete Walker has recently done great work with pitchers, helping Robbie Ray break out while getting a bounce-back campaign out of Steven Matz and keeping the likes of Jose Berrios and Hyun-Jin Ryu on a successful path. I have enough faith in Walker to consider Kikuchi with a late-round pick in 12-team leagues.
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Alex Colome signs with the Colorado Rockies
The Rockies did not have a good closer option on the roster and Alex Colome has 155 career saves, which makes the right-hander the leading candidate to handle ninth-inning duties. Still, Colome usually posts a low strikeout rate and was ineffective (4.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) with the Twins last season. There is a decent chance that the veteran compiles 20 saves but also posts ratios bad enough to negate any mixed-league value.
My best advice for Yahoo managers is to leave the 33-year-old undrafted and make him earn a fantasy roster spot by starting the season on a strong note. Meanwhile, those who held out hope for Daniel Bard (20 saves, 5.21 ERA in 2021) can likely move on to another reliever.
... And more to come — keep it locked!
