Fantasy Baseball: Advice on 10 slumping hitters

The hardest thing to do early in mixed leagues is to not bail on slumping hitters. Hitting stats take so long to mean anything that most often the best advice for your hitters in April is: “Don’t just do something, stand there!”

But it’s only the players who are reasonably believed to be in the prime of their careers and who have a back-of-the-baseball-card you can bet on who deserve our faith. So let’s look at the hitters who have wrecked our teams in April and place them into bettable categories with an eye toward their 2017 futures.

The Prime-Age Veterans You Should Hold

Eric Hosmer: The ground-ball heavy Hosmer, 27, always was unlikely to replicate his power from last year. But he’s a good hitter, a poor-man’s American League Christian Yelich, and a solid bet to hit his career rate of .275 or so (sort of the new .300), with at least middling power and solid RBI in the middle of the Royals lineup. Hosmer’s well-hit average (of at-bats, including strikeouts) is decent at .159 (.155 is average), according to Major League baseball stat provider Inside Edge.

Anthony Rendon: Still just 26, the career stats were the enemy of Rendon backers in March (“He’s not that good”) — but those stats are your friend now. Rendon’s well-hit rate is just .123 — but remember this is not stable yet either, meaning it’s more than 50% random.

Jose Abreu: His well-hit rate is just .078, about half the league average. This is alarming, of course. I mean, he’s slugging .250. Who wouldn’t want to dump him? But this is a test of the principle to always bet the base rates. Abreu, just 30, should end up with the 30 homers his history suggests, pro-rated for the time left in the season. Yes, that power number has been declining. But remember, we always see patterns whether or not they actually exist.

The One-Year Wonder Vet

Jonathan Villar: I thought he was overdrafted in March. The strikeouts were going to be a problem — and he leads the NL with 32 — but I’d still hold. Bottom line is that he leads the league in plate appearances and has seven homers plus steals, a pace for about 56. The strikeout rate is stable by now, but that just means pegging it between what they are and his career rate. So expect 30% Ks going forward vs. 36.4% currently and 25.6% last year. Villar was very difficult to project and could easily be the player he was prior to last year, meaning a below-average hitter. Well-hit: .148.

The Precocious Non-Rookie

Trevor Story: He’s on pace for about 34 homers, 34 doubles and 25 singles with 246 strikeouts. He is not that out of whack with the Ks. His hitting profile last year assumed about 200 and also assumed he could still be very effective with it in that park and given his light-tower power. Story is the type who is going to scuffle along about half the time seeming mostly helpless and look like an MVP the other half of the time. I’m holding with little doubt. Well-hit: .138.

The Unproven

Byron Buxton: He has scored one run and has one RBI with 27 Ks in just 55 at bats. But he only had one decent month in the majors and that was still with a 35% strikeout rate. I just never got the Buxton love. He was always a major gamble and can’t be on any mixed-league roster right now.

Tim Anderson: We could say he was precocious last year, but the weight of the sample was nothing special. Those desperate for some speed with any projectable power got suckered seemingly, me included. His approach is just bad. He admits to not wanting to walk for crying out loud. He’s not even running because he is never on base. He’s pure speculation now but has no history as a backstop. Well-hit: .119.

Dansby Swanson: Literally zero track record. But similar to Anderson and with the bonus of top-overall draft pedigree. His well-hit is .139 but it’s mostly ground balls. It’s very unlikely to happen this year for Swanson, who may be ticketed back to the minors. So cut bait now and get something more solid and less sexy.

The Old

Victor Martinez: Maybe it’s over for him at 38 even off the solid age-37 season in 2016. We buried Martinez in 2015 only too see him bounce back last year. But the circus eventually leaves town for everyone. Dropping him is totally defensible. I personally still believe and would pick him up on waivers given the Ks and BBs are close enough to last year and his well-hit has not completely cratered at .143. But I’d need to see some serious positive regression the next 20 games.

Jose Bautista: At age 36, his well-hit is actually above average at .162. But the strikeouts are out of control (32.1% vs. 19.9% last year). Bottoming out at age 36 is not unusual even for Hall of Famers: Chuck Klein (.393 on-base plus slugging percentage at age 36), Orlando Cepeda (.572), Jim Rice (.621), Eddie Matthews (.667). But of this list, only Cepeda (18% better than the league average hitter) and Matthews (11% better) were remotely comparable to Bautista (clearly not a Hall of Famer but playing like one since age 30). Last year, Bautista was 18% better than league average — exactly like Cepeda. So I’m like 75/25 hold him. But I’m not going to fight you if you want to drop him him in a 12-team league. It all depends on: for whom?