Fantasy Update: Allmendinger on rise entering pressure-filled Watkins Glen race

Going into Sunday‘s Go Bowling at The Glen Cup Series race at Watkins Glen International (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), it was predicted the win would go through Hendrick Motorsports. Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson have combined to win the last four races at The Glen, but it was Toyota that stood out in practice and qualifying. Kaulig Racing also found speed in AJ Allmendinger‘s entry, potentially putting him in a position to contend for the victory on Sunday.

Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:

Starter 1: Kyle Larson

Starter 2: Michael McDowell

Starter 3: Chase Elliott

Starter 4: Tyler Reddick

Starter 5: AJ Allmendinger

Garage pick: Daniel Suárez

NEXT IN LINE: William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr.

RELATED: Set your lineup | Odds for Sunday’s race

RISING: When Allmendinger spoke about his car at Indianapolis last weekend following practice and qualifying, he was dejected with the speed — or lack thereof — of his No. 16 Chevrolet on road courses. He flipped the script on Saturday in Central New York as Allmendinger led the way in practice and qualified sixth. I‘m back on the Allmendinger bandwagon at road courses after being away earlier this week.

Hamlin is becoming quite the qualifying ace on road courses, now having won three of the last four pole awards when turning left and right. The No. 11 team hasn‘t managed a full race in the previous two at Sonoma and Chicago as he wrecked out in Sonoma and hit the wall early in Chicago on wet tires and never recovered. Of all the road courses on the Cup schedule, Hamlin‘s stats are the best at Watkins Glen, with four top-five finishes in the last six races, including his lone road course win in 2016.

FALLING: Many people within the industry — some drivers included — thought this weekend would be dominated by Elliott. But the No. 9 team will have to overcome a 15th-place starting position on Sunday. Elliott felt like he messed everything up during his qualifying run but thinks his car has potential, ranking seventh in practice. Still would advise keeping Elliott available for use on Sunday, believing he and Alan Gustafson will do their homework and regain their typical Watkins Glen mojo.

Suárez had his most complete weekend of the season at Indianapolis last week, which bumped his confidence level up going into Watkins Glen. The No. 99 car wasn‘t as strong as anticipated in practice, turning just the 23rd best lap. He improved to 14th in qualifying, still off the pace compared to what was expected entering the weekend. With three top-five finishes in five starts at The Glen, one could assume Suárez will figure it out for the race and be a factor.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Michael McDowell vs. Daniel Suárez

Suárez hasn‘t fallen out of my lineup completely, but my feelings have switched on this matchup. The No. 34 team is riding a wave of momentum from winning at Indianapolis last weekend and looks to be among the best cars in the field again this week. McDowell thinks he can contend for another win, while Suárez had a lackluster Saturday.

Chase Elliott vs. Kyle Larson

Larson was among the drivers that stated he believed Elliott would dominate the weekend. However, it was the No. 5 Chevrolet that made it to the final round of qualifying and will take the green flag from fifth on Sunday. This is among the hardest matchups of the season, with both dominating at Watkins Glen recently. Something tells me Elliott will rebound from Saturday and be in contention for the win. Staying with the No. 9 car.

Alex Bowman vs. Denny Hamlin

Admittedly, Bowman has struggled at Watkins Glen with a best finish of 14th (three times). On the flip side, this is Hamlin‘s best road course on the circuit. Earlier this week, the mindset was Bowman needed a win and ran incredibly strong at Indianapolis last weekend. The No. 11 team had a better outing in practice and qualifying, and should he keep track position, this shouldn‘t be much of a fight.

Ty Gibbs vs. Bubba Wallace

Wallace qualified 12th, which is his second-best starting position on a road course (11th at COTA earlier this year). In what will be his 40th Cup start, Gibbs will begin the race from inside the front two rows for the fourth time in his career. No matter what series he competes in, Gibbs is often strong on road courses, which gives him the advantage.