Familiar folly: Three takeaways from UNC basketball’s last-minute home loss to Stanford

The North Carolina Tar Heels faced one of the nation’s top post players in Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud on Saturday, but it was Duke transfer Jaylen Blakes who delivered the game-winning moment for the Cardinal.

The 6-foot-2 guard’s baseline stepback jumper over Seth Trimble with 1.5 seconds on the clock earned Stanford a 72-71 ACC basketball win over UNC, the Cardinal’s first win over the Tar Heels in 14 meetings all-time..

“I just felt like it was a culmination of little things,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said, “and I always say little things lead to big things happening… those little mistakes led to big things happening, resulting in today’s loss.”

Raynaud and Blakes led the way for Stanford with 25 and 20 points, respectively. RJ Davis was the Tar Heels’ leading scorer with 19.

Ian Jackson and Davis were held scoreless through the first seven minutes. While Davis proceeded to heat up and led the Tar Heels with nine points in the first half, Jackson’s only points before half — both of them — came from two free throws.

After tight, back-and-forth play through the first three-fourths of the game, the Cardinal established a five-point lead with 9:30 to play.

Then, Jackson, also known as Captain Jack, finally broke through.

Jackson, in typical fashion, jackknifed through the defense and laid the ball up and in with his left hand. Trimble followed that up with a fast-break layup after Elliot Cadeau grabbed a defensive board, pushed the pace and found the cutting 6-foot-3 junior guard.

UNC cut its deficit to one. The crowd roared. Stanford called a 30-second timeout.

When Cardinal redshirt sophomore Ryan Agarwal responded with a jumper to put the Cardinal back up by three, Cadeau and Ven-Allen Lubin captained a 6-0 UNC run. The two knocked down four straight free throws before the sophomore point guard drove through traffic and laid the ball in to put North Carolina up by three. Cadeau roared and bounced up and down in celebration.

But Stanford wouldn’t go away.

An Agarwal layup put the Cardinal up by one, and Trimble answered with a layup of his own to put North Carolina back on top.

Then, with 24 seconds remaining, Blakes found his way to the charity stripe — driving baseline and drawing a foul on Trimble. He sank both free throws to put Stanford up 70-69.

Trimble responded yet again, muscling his way to the basket and earning his own trip to the line with 7.7 seconds left. Even after sinking both free throws to put UNC up by one, there was too much time left on the clock for the Cardinal to work with.

Stanford — and Blakes — made UNC pay.

The fall to Stanford is a consequential Quad 3 loss in NET terms for the Tar Heels, who are striving to escape the limbo of the NCAA Tournament bubble.

“I’m not really too informed on the quads and the NETs, but I know the NET rankings,” RJ Davis said. “So I kind of just told them [the team], we need every game in terms of… putting ourselves in a good position for March.”

Here are three takeaways from UNC’s loss:

Raynaud shows off versatility

UNC was intent on doubling Raynaud early on, sending Drake Powell or Jae’Lyn Withers over to help out Washington in the post. This pushed Raynaud off the block and into the corner, where he was then forced to kick out to his teammates.

As a result, Raynaud — who entered Saturday as the ACC leader in points and rebounds (on the season as a whole) — got most of his buckets by way of the perimeter, jumpers and by getting to the free throw line.

Still, North Carolina struggled to shut him down as effectively they did Cal’s Andrej Stojakovic on Wednesday. In the first half alone, Raynaud racked up 15 points (2-of-5 from three) and six rebounds.

That being said, his efficiency dropped in the second half. In that stretch, Raynaud finished 3-of-12 from the field and 1-of-6 from three. When he finally drained his first triple of the second half — with two and a half minutes remaining — he clinched both fists and pumped his arms in celebration.

“He’s a very skilled player that can score at all three levels,” Lubin, “so I just really took on the challenge of guarding him and making it a tough catch and making him take tough shots. It’s something that we did in the second half, toward the end of the stretch, that we should have done since the beginning.”

Raynaud finished another strong performance: 25 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks.

Lubin impresses with efficiency

Lubin, who entered Saturday averaging 5.9 points and 4.7 rebounds, nearly led the team in scoring in the first half — racking up eight points to Davis’ nine. Lubin did so on 4-of-5 shooting in 11 minutes of play.

Lubin was also responsible for defending the Frenchman — no easy task — while Washington sat on the bench. The Vanderbilt transfer held his own for the most part (especially given the five-inch height disparity), limiting Raynaud’s offensive rebounds and contesting him at the rim.

By the second half, Lubin had pretty much taken over for Washington at the five — a departure from UNC’s recent rotation.

The Vanderbilt transfer remained aggressive, putting pressure on the rim and staying ready for offensive rebounds and putbacks. He finished with a season-high 13 points and five rebounds off the bench.

“The guards trusted me,” Lubin said, “[they] looked for me and searched for me to be an option for them. Just to be able to catch the ball and go score, be on the offensive boards and make my free throws — that’s really all it is.”

Quiet night for Jackson

All good things must come to an end.

Jackson, coming off a streak in which he put up offensive numbers not seen since Tyler Hansbrough donned Carolina Blue, struggled from the field on Saturday.

The freshman from The Bronx was defended well by the Cardinal and ended the first half with two points — both of which came off of free throws.

Jackson entered Saturday having scored 20 or more points in six of his last seven games. On that so-called “off night” he dropped 18.

Against Stanford, Jackson finished with six points on 1-of-8 shooting — including an 0-for-5 performance from the perimeter. Four of his six points came from the line and he wasn’t able to cut through the Cardinal defense as easily as he has with other opponents.

“Basketball is life,” Hubert Davis said. “There are times where you’re rolling out there on the floor and then there’s times where it just doesn’t work. I thought Ian took good shots. Their length, I thought, bothered us — from the standpoint of that length in the lane.”