Examining effectiveness of starting pitchers deep in games

The third time is not a charm in baseball. Meaning, the third time through the order. This year, pitchers allow a .778 OPS the third-time through the order compared with .717 the first time and .744 the second. Of course, individual mileage will vary. We want guys who are capable of pitching deeper into games because each out they get on their own increases the likelihood that a tied or trailing game can turn into a win.

While Scott Pianowski put values on starting pitchers the rest of the season earlier this week, we're going to focus on the pitchers who have proven to be much better than average — and much worse — the third-time around (minimum 80 at bats vs. batters). You could of course note career averages for broader context but pitchers are really more “of the moment” performers versus hitters, who you can usually count on to level out to the back of their baseball cards.

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For example, a pitcher who struggles this year when facing batters the third time could just be a victim of small-sample size randomness OR could be suffering from endurance issues related to inevitable wear-and-tear and even mild-to-moderate injury that they are choosing to pitch through.

We’ve isolated pitchers who are either very good (OPS allowed .630 or lower) or really bad (OPS allowed .900 or greater). Stats are through Wednesday.

2016 MLB Pitchers Ranked by OPS | PointAfter

At the top, we see the quality arms we respect but right away it looks like we should respect Drew Pomeranz more. But the problem here is that Pomeranz, 27, has never pitched more than 120 innings at any professional level. He’s already up to 81. So the leash may be short. Pomeranz’s ability to pitch deep into games after previously toiling mostly in relief has been a revelation. But I can’t see betting on Pomeranz for the balance of the season. Note I can’t find anything indicating the Padres’ position on this, though they are reportedly exploring trade options.

Marco Estrada is highly owned and rightfully so but you get the sense that no one really believes in him. His strikeouts have progressed this year in line with career averages, as should always be the bet, and he remains consistently tough to hit because he throws high strikes that batters generally do not see. This effect obviously persists in games, too.

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Matt Wisler has shown up on other lists and is just 12 percent owned while also pitching in the NL East. I wish the strikeouts and team were better. But he seems to have the skills to fill out a mixed-league rotation. Note his ERA has soared in June and he had four walks and one K in his last start so maybe look for one solid outing to confirm he’s healthy. 

Matt Shoemaker shines again. He’s just good at everything this year. But, again, he’s like a knuckleballer in that his splitter is such a feel pitch and you have no idea how long the feeling will last. But be sure to ride him now through at least two straight bad starts.

I believe this list is better for knowing which pitchers to avoid. Nathan Eovaldi is struggling now in line with his career averages. I gave in given how he was dominating (K-BB)/IP even though I thought in March that he was too old to figure out how to leverage his elite velocity. I never should have believed it. We just so badly want to believe though. It makes sense that Eovaldi’s velocity would either diminish or become more familiar/easier to hit with each at bat. Eovaldi should be converted to relief, Wade Davis style. Maybe that will happen after the Yankees clear out their late-inning guys to contenders.

Francisco Liriano makes the bottom of a list for the second time in two weeks. Yet he’s 75 percent owned. Liriano’s walk rate is generally bad and is a career worst this year at 5.6 per nine innings. 

I can’t argue with people who want to fade Harvey over his struggles here. A 1.102 OPS allowed the third-time around is so bad that it’s hard to ignore it even in this relatively small sample. There is size and there is magnitude, too. Why he’s struggling is unknown. It could be related to his heavy workload last year after Tommy John surgery the prior year, though that seems too neat. It’s very hard to bet that Harvey will bounce back near term in light of this stark inability to pitch deep into games. 

I would not discount Sonny Gray too heavily in light of these season-long problems because he’s had overall problems, of course. In June, though, he’s been good. Unfortunately, I can’t pull his stats third-time around just for June and even if I could it would be absurdly small and thus not bettable. There is reason to believe in a Gray resurgence.