Examining the ACC tiebreaker scenarios: How UM could make — or be left out — of title game

The Miami Hurricanes’ path to the Dec. 7 Atlantic Coast Conference title game seems simple enough: Win and they’re in.

If UM (9-0, 5-0 in conference) wins at Georgia Tech (5-4, 3-3 in the ACC) on Nov. 9, at home against Wake Forest (4-4, 2-2 ACC) on Nov. 23 and at Syracuse (6-2, 3-2 ACC) on Nov. 30, the Canes will be in the ACC title game.

SMU (8-1, 5-0), which is the ACC’s only other team with a perfect conference record besides Miami, also would make the ACC title game if it wins out — against Boston College (4-4, 1-3 ACC) on Nov. 16, at Virginia (4-4, 2-3 ACC) on Nov. 23 and home against Cal (4-4, 0-4 ACC) on Nov. 30.

The winner of the ACC title game gets a top-four seed (likely top three) in the 12-team College Football Playoff, as well as a first-round bye.

But what if UM or SMU stumble over the final month of the regular season?

Could Clemson and Pittsburgh - the ACC’s only teams with exactly one conference loss — hop them for a title game bid?

Asking and answering on several other scenarios:

▪ What if UM loses a game, SMU wins out and Clemson wins out? (Keep in mind that Pittsburgh hosts Clemson on Nov. 16, meaning only one of those two teams can finish with no more than one ACC loss.)

If SMU wins out and the Canes and Clemson finish tied with one loss, an ACC title game berth would come down to the second tiebreaker: win percentage versus all common ACC opponents.

And UM would have the edge there over Clemson, provided the Canes don’t lose to Wake Forest at home.

If Clemson wins out, the Tigers would be 3-1 against common opponents, with a loss against Louisville. If Miami beats Wake Forest (the only common opponent left on Miami’s schedule), the Canes would be 4-0 in those games (FSU, Wake, Louisville, Virginia Tech) and would win this tiebreaker against Clemson.

▪ What if UM loses a game, SMU wins out and Pittsburgh beats Clemson and wins out?

Whether UM would make the ACC championship game in this scenario would depend on who UM loses to.

If UM loses to Syracuse in its finale, and SMU and Pittsburgh win out, then SMU would play Pittsburgh in the ACC title game in a rematch of SMU’s 48-25 shellacking of Pittsburgh last weekend.

If the Panthers win out, they would win a two-team tiebreaker with a one-loss UM in that scenario (a Miami loss at Syracuse) based on having a better record against common opponents (California, Syracuse, Louisville). If the Panthers win out, they would be 3-0 against those teams, while Miami would be 2-1 against those teams if the Hurricanes lose to the Orangemen.

But if the Canes lose to Georgia Tech or Wake Forest and do not lose to Syracuse, then a Miami-Pittsburgh tie at No. 2 and No. 3 in the conference would come down to the third two-team tiebreaker: “win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.”

At this point, that third tiebreaker is too muddled to have a definitive read on.

▪ What if UM and SMU both lose a game and Clemson wins out?

That three-team tie would go to win percentage against all common opponents. UM, SMU and Clemson had two common opponents — FSU and Louisville. The Canes won both games, while Clemson lost to Louisville.

So UM would advance to the title game in this scenario. So would SMU, which beat both FSU and Louisville.

▪ What if UM and SMU both lose a game and Pittsburgh wins out?

Though SMU beat Pittsburgh, that would not eliminate Pittsburgh in a three-team tie for first place because all three teams didn’t play each other. So that tiebreaker would not be applicable, the ACC confirmed.

Only Louisville and California would be a common opponent among UM, SMU and Pittsburgh. And all would have beaten Louisville in this scenario. If SMU’s one loss is at home to California on Nov. 30, that would assure UM a spot in the ACC title game.

If SMU beats Cal in this scenario, the tie would be resolved by either No. 4 (win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish or proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish) or tiebreak No. 5 (combined win-percentage of conference opponents).

If it comes down to No. 5, UM would be in pretty good shape.

▪ If Miami doesn’t make the ACC Championship Game, will it still make the playoffs?

If the Canes have only one loss, there’s a good chance they would. But Miami wouldn’t get a first-round bye, and there’s a decent chance UM would open the playoffs on the road.