How Everything Changed For The Ottawa Senators After Their Meltdown Against The Flyers

When the Ottawa Senators staked themselves to a 4-2 lead at the halfway mark of the third period in their November 14th game against the Philadelphia Flyers, it was easy to feel good about where their game was at.

The Senators had dominated the game territorially and on the scoreboard. At five-on-five, they generated more than 60 percent of the shots (CF%), shots on goal (SF%), and expected goals (xGF%) per NaturalStatTrick's game log. They were also coming off consecutive victories over the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs, and they appeared poised to add a third game to what would have been their longest winning streak of the season.

Things unravelled quickly.

Anthony Richard squeaked a shot through Linus Ullmark at the 10:42 mark to cut the lead to 4-3. Two minutes later, another Richard shot handcuffed Ullmark and deflected off Bobby Brink to even the game at 4. To this day, nobody knows how Matvei Michkov's shot from the bottom of the right circle got through Ullmark in overtime.

It was a heartbreaking loss in a game the Senators had in the bag. After the game, John Tortorella was at a loss explaining how his team came out with the two points.

"It is the National Hockey League at its best," Tortorella told reporters. "You play as bad as we did and then come out a winner. I have no idea (how it happened)."

Since that loss, the Senators have been abysmal.

In their eight games that followed, NaturalStatTrick's data shows the Senators have only generated 49.30 percent of the shots (CF%), 45.13 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 38.71 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 45.43 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). It is a small sample size of games, but here is how those metrics stack up against the rest of the league during this span.

• 48.52 CF%: 21st

• 45.13 SF%: 29th

• 38.71 GF%: 32nd

• 45.43 xGF%: 28th

Contrast that with how the Senators performed through the team's first 16 games, including their November 14th game against the Flyers, and the numbers could not be more diametrically opposed.

• 54.25 CF%: 3rd

• 56.22 SF%, 3rd

• 47.69 GF%, 22nd

• 54.03 xGF%, 6th

So, what changed?

A psychologist might look at the collapse in the Flyers game and an ugly Carolina game in which some objectively terrible calls sank any opportunity for a potential comeback and conclude that this team has not mentally recovered or is too fragile.

In the early portion of the Senators' schedule, there were a handful of games that the team truly deserved to lose. Despite their record, it felt reasonable to suggest that their record should improve down the road if they could sustain their underlying numbers. They just needed better luck and improvement from a few obvious spots in the lineup.

While everyone has been wondering when and whether better luck would kick in before it was too late, the Senators have been unable to maintain their strong underlying numbers. Instead, they have cratered, and in this recent stretch, the Senators have struggled to look competitive.

The goaltending has struggled from its effectiveness to its consistency. The Senators rank 28th in the NHL with an 89.53 five-on-five save percentage. (To his credit, Linus Ullmark looked strong in Sunday night's shootout loss to Anaheim. Hopefully, it will be a sign of things to come.)

Since promoting Adam Gaudette to the top line, the Senators are getting little from their depth. Shane Pinto's game has improved recently, but he still only has a lonely goal and three points on the season. Michael Amadio has bounced around the lineup to little effect. The first quarter of his season has been disappointing, with two goals and five points. With the exception of two brilliant backhand assists that set up Adam Gaudette's power play goals, Ridly Greig has been disappointing with his offensive production.

The team's third pairing has also been problematic.

Early on in the season, the Senators needed more out of their third pairing. Artem Zub's concussion opened the door to Jacob Bernard-Docker's entry into the lineup, but once in the lineup, he and Tyler Kleven gave the Senators some incredibly strong play, albeit in a limited sample of games.

Once Zub returned, however, Bernard-Docker spent a lot of time in the press box as the odd man out. Kleven's numbers have suffered immeasurably over the past several weeks. These recent struggles are not simply a byproduct of his defensive partner either. Poor reads and untimely pinches have contributed to inadequate results.

Since the Philadelphia game, the Senators have only generated 38.86 percent of the shots (CF%), 27.06 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 27.27 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 27.61 percent of the expected goals, while Kleven has been on the ice at five-on-five.

These numbers are hard to overcome, even when the third pairing plays limited minutes. It is compounded when Artem Zub returns from injury and is completely ineffective. Then, once Zub returns to the LTIR with a foot fracture, his top-four minutes are replaced by Travis Hamonic - the defenceman who is tied for being the second-least valuable player in the NHL by Evolving-Hockey's 'Wins Above Replacement' (WAR) metric.

Put it all together, and it is a recipe for disaster.