Even after first loss, Miami Hurricanes still have clear path to ACC Championship Game

The No. 4 Miami Hurricanes’ 28-23 loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday put a damper on a previously undefeated season.

But as for the Hurricanes’ chances to make the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game on Dec. 7 in Charlotte and, potentially, the 12-team College Football Playoff after that? Both of those goals are still alive and well.

With No. 18 Pittsburgh also getting upset on Saturday, losing 24-19 at home to an unranked Virginia team, Miami still has the inside track to get to Charlotte for the conference title game if it can win its final two conference games against Wake Forest on Nov. 23 and Syracuse on Nov. 30.

How so?

Miami is one of three ACC teams with zero or one loss in conference play. The others are the No. 13 SMU Mustangs (8-1, 5-0 ACC) and No. 23 Clemson Tigers (7-2, 6-1 ACC).

SMU’s final three conference games are against Boston College on Nov. 16, Virginia on Nov. 23 and Cal on Nov. 30.

Clemson’s final league game is Nov. 16 against Pittsburgh.

Should Miami win its final two games and go 7-1 in conference play, there are only two scenarios that would involve UM having to deal with any sort of tiebreaker to get into the ACC Championship Game, and the Hurricanes have the needed edge in both of them.

The two situations:

▪ SMU goes 8-0 in conference play, Miami and Clemson go 7-1: SMU and Miami will be in the conference championship. Since Miami and Clemson did not play each other, the tiebreaker would be win percentage against common opponents. UM and Clemson have four common opponents this season: FSU, Wake Forest, Louisville and Virginia Tech. In this scenario, Miami goes 4-0 against those teams, while Clemson is 3-1 because of its loss to Louisville.

▪ SMU, Miami and Clemson all go 7-1 in conference play: Since Miami, SMU and Clemson did not play each other, the three-way tiebreaker scenario here would be similar to the won above — win percentage against all common opponents.

The Hurricanes, Mustangs and Tigers have two common opponents this year: the FSU Seminoles and Louisville Cardinals.

Miami and SMU each went 2-0 against FSU and Louisville. Clemson lost to Louisville.

Therefore, it would be an SMU-Miami conference championship game in this scenario.

Full ACC standings through Week 11

Below are the records of all 17 ACC teams, ranked by conference record, along with their remaining conference games.

SMU Mustangs (8-1 overall, 5-0 ACC)

Miami Hurricanes (9-1, 5-1)

Clemson Tigers (7-2, 6-1)

Louisville Cardinals (6-3, 4-2)

Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, 3-2)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-4, 4-3)

Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5, 3-3)

Syracuse Orange (6-3, 3-3)

Duke Blue Devils (7-3, 3-3)

Virginia Cavaliers (5-4, 3-3)

UNC Tar Heels (5-4, 2-3)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-5, 2-3)

Boston College Eagles (5-4, 2-3)

NC State Wolfpack (5-5, 2-4)

Cal Golden Bears (5-4, 1-4)

Stanford Cardinal (2-7, 1-5)

FSU Seminoles (1-9, 1-7)