EPL betting preview: Tottenham needs to beat Arsenal and get a little help

Tottenham has two games in 72 hours to make up points on Arsenal.

Spurs host the Gunners at 2:45 p.m. ET Thursday in a pivotal matchup for fourth place and a Champions League spot next season. Arsenal is four points ahead of Tottenham and is favored to finish in the top four ahead of Spurs, though Tottenham is favored on Thursday. Spurs are +120 to win at home and cut Arsenal’s lead to a point.

If Tottenham wins on Thursday it can pull ahead of Arsenal on Sunday morning with another win vs. Burnley. Tottenham kicks off the Sunday Premier League slate against Burnley ahead of six other games that day. Arsenal has to wait until Monday to go to Newcastle in its penultimate game of the season.

Burnley has a lot to play for on Sunday too. Burnley is currently 17th in the standings via tiebreaker with Leeds. The bottom three teams in the 20-team Premier League get relegated to the Championship and Watford and Norwich City have already clinched relegation. The final spot is between Leeds, Burnley, and Everton. The latter two teams each have three games remaining this season while Leeds just has two.

That extra game for Burnley and Everton means they have a leg up on Leeds to stay in the Premier League. Burnley’s goal difference helps a lot too. Leeds and Burnley each have 34 points but Burnley’s goal difference is a whopping 21 goals better.

The Premier League slate starts on Sunday this weekend because of the FA Cup final on Saturday. Chelsea and Liverpool play each other Saturday morning for the country-wide tournament title. Liverpool is favored in that game as it attempts to go for its second trophy of the season. Liverpool has an outside chance at winning the Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Champions League and Premier League this season, though its Premier League chances took a hit with Man City’s easy win over Wolves on Wednesday.

All odds below are from BetMGM. All league games are on Sunday unless noted.

Tottenham vs. Arsenal (over/under 2.5) [Thursday]

• Tottenham (+120)

• Arsenal (+220)

• Tie (+240)

We’re inclined to go with a tie here. That’s a result Arsenal would be extremely happy with as it would guarantee the Gunners fourth place after the Newcastle game no matter the result.

Tottenham vs. Burnley (2.5)

• Tottenham (-300)

• Burnley (+800)

• Tie (+425)

A Tottenham win looks extremely likely since Spurs are at home but Burnley stealing a point or three shouldn’t be ruled out, especially if Arsenal wins on Thursday.

West Ham vs. Manchester City (3.5)

• West Ham (+625)

• Man City (-250)

• Tie (+400)

Liverpool fans are going to be supporting West Ham more than Hammers fans. But should be nothing that makes you really believe that West Ham can shift the title race into Liverpool’s favor. City has a seven-goal advantage in goal difference.

Leeds vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (2.5)

• Leeds (+150)

• Brighton (+170)

• Tie (+240)

Leeds has to get all three points on Sunday while Brighton is capable of winning 4-0 or failing to come close to scoring. We’re not sure here.

Watford vs. Leicester City (2.5)

• Watford (+225)

• Leicester (+110)

• Tie (+260)

Take Leicester at these odds. Watford is abysmal and simply can’t win at home, though it tied Everton on Wednesday.

Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace (2.5)

• Aston Villa (+105)

• Palace (+250)

• Tie (+250)

The battle for the top spot in the bottom half of the table is on in earnest on Sunday. We’ll go with Villa at home.

Wolves vs. Norwich City (2.5)

• Wolves (-225)

• Norwich (+600)

• Tie (+340)

Wolves is the pick here as both teams have little to play for.

Everton vs. Brentford (2.5)

• Everton (+100)

• Brentford (+270)

• Tie (+250)

Brentford as the underdog feels like a fun pick. We have a hard time trusting Everton at the moment and Brentford is simply a better team.

Newcastle vs. Arsenal (2.5) [Monday]

• Newcastle (+300)

• Arsenal (-115)

• Tie (+260)

There’s a scenario where a Newcastle win puts the Magpies into the top 10 in the table. Seriously. We’ll go with Arsenal though.

FA Cup

Chelsea vs. Liverpool (2.5)

• Chelsea (+250)

• Liverpool (+100)

• Tie (+250)

Chelsea got a needed win on Wednesday against Leeds but we’re going with the better team as it gets its second trophy of the season.