Who has edge in Chiefs-Texans playoff matchup? Here’s everything you need to know

The pursuit of a three-peat has reached its third act.

Against the odds.

The Chiefs open their playoff journey Saturday, hosting the Texans at 3:30 p.m. in dropping temperatures.

But, hey, the No. 1-seeded Chiefs should apparently just feel fortunate they don’t have to face the Broncos in this AFC Divisional Round — you know, if you’re inclined to believe Denver head coach Sean Payton, who is building a Hall of Fame revisionist history resume.

Anyway, enough about who they dodged.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in the Divisional Round in his career, though just stating the record overshadows that it hasn’t always been a smooth ride. The last five Divisional Round victories include two games that Mahomes left injured, another where the Chiefs trailed by 24 points and another that they survived with a miraculous comeback in the final 13 seconds.

It’s been perfect overall, but it’s been a challenge.

And here’s more on the challenge that awaits with the Houston Texans:

Where should the Chiefs defense win?

Up front.

The Texans offense has struggled, ranking 26th overall in DVOA, an all-encompassing metric, and it can mostly be attributed to one thing: the offensive line.

Houston allows the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league, and they rate even worse as a run-blocking unit. Running back Joe Mixon has been greeted behind a defender in more than half of his rushing attempts, per Next Gen Stats.

The Chiefs didn’t take near enough advantage of this weakness in their Week 16 meeting. (Neither did the Chargers in last week’s Wild Card blowout, by the way.)

So how can KC exploit the Texans offensive line?

With blitzes.

Because the Chiefs are facing a subpar offensive line, you might think they don’t even really need to blitz. Sometimes that’s true. But not here.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has an 82.7 passer rating against blitzes, per PFF, the fourth-worst among this season’s full-time quarterbacks. The statistics say he struggles against extra rushers. The film suggests why: Stroud has not done nearly a good enough job identifying and adjusting to it. He takes sacks 21.8% of the time he sees pressure, the sixth-highest total in the league.

So if you can get in the backfield — and most teams can — you can frequently make some plays.

And guess what defensive coordinator loves to blitz? Steve Spanguolo has the fourth-highest blitz call rate in the league.

How can the Texans offense still give the Chiefs trouble?

The deep passes.

It was their driving force in a surprise 2023 seasons, but teams adjusted for it this year, causing Stroud’s downfield passing numbers to endure a precipitous drop.

Why is it still a concern then? Well, the Chiefs have allowed the second most explosive passing plays in the NFL since Week 9. And Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is one of the best deep weapons in the game. If the Texans are going to put up points, Collins has to make at least a couple of big plays.

Houston had four explosive passing players in Week 16 in KC.

What about the Texans’ defense?

Really good.

Everywhere.

The Texans are a top-five pass defense, and they’re a top-five run defense. It’s why they’re here, a division champion and the (convincing) winner of a first-round playoff game. They paced the NFL in pass-rush win rate, headlined by edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who have combined for 117 pressures.

In large part because of those two, the Texans get their pressure without blitzing — they rank below average in blitz rate.

It’s easier to be good in the secondary when you have extra numbers reserved for coverage. That’s a luxury the Texans enjoy.

How can the Chiefs move the football?

OK, besides Patrick Mahomes, because that’s pretty obvious.

Over the last half of the season, the Texans allowed the second most yards after the catch per reception. The best path to moving the football is to get in the hands of receivers and let them do the hard work.

Sound familiar? That’s how the Chiefs prefer to operate. Mahomes had the lowest average depth of target in the NFL this season.

Which Chiefs wide receivers would that include?

Xavier Worthy.

He’s enjoyed a late-season breakout, which I explored in a column earlier this week. Well, here’s one thing I didn’t mention: Among the 84 receivers targeted at least 50 times this season, Worthy finished sixth in yards after the catch per reception (7.1). Much of that is because the Chiefs have found a recent rhythm with short throws from Mahomes to Worthy.

But let’s show the other end of the spectrum too.

Dead last in yards after catch per reception among those 84 receivers: DeAndre Hopkins.

What about Patrick Mahomes’ success in the playoffs?

It’s not just the record.

It’s his numbers, too.

Entering this postseason, Mahomes had the highest playoff passer rating in NFL history at 105.8.

The reason for the qualification? Well, Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield dominated the Commanders last weekend, even in a loss, and now his career mark is 105.9, 0.1 higher than Mahomes. It will remain that way for at least a year, with the Buccaneers bounced from the playoffs.

Still, this Mahomes guy is pretty good in the postseason. And it’s not just his arm. Mahomes has been the highest-graded running quarterback on PFF in three of the last five years. It’s a weapon he’s more willing to use in the playoffs.

Will Mahomes’ legs be a weapon?

As I said, historically, they have been.

And this particular matchup is ideal for it.

The Texans are really strong defensively, as mentioned, but they do have a blind spot: quarterback scrambles.

Houston allowed the second most expected points added (EPA) on quarterback scrambles this season. If you’ll recall, Mahomes opened the regular-season matchup with a nifty 15-yard scramble for a touchdown. That’s not an anomaly. It’s exploiting a weakness.

So, who wins?

You know the rationale. You’ve heard the important matchups.

I’ve got Chiefs 23, Texans 13.