How Easily Could Maple Leafs' Auston Matthews Get Back Into The Rocket Richard Race?

Auston Matthews scored once again on Wednesday, extending his goal streak to five games and hitting the 20-goal mark for the ninth time in his first nine seasons.

While dealing with lingering injury issues this year, Matthews’ ability to fill the net has been affected. Before his second absence from the team, the 27-year-old looked a step slow in every aspect of the game. His foot speed was off, he wasn’t winning puck battles at the high rate he tends to and his shot was being used less frequently — and its effectiveness wasn’t apparent.

But since returning from the second absence, Matthews has played in 11 games, scoring in nine of those games. His nine goals and 15 points translate to 0.81 goals per game or a 66-goal pace in an 82-game season.

With Matthews back scoring at his historic pace, the question arises about whether he could find his way back in the Maurice “Rocket” Richard race. He's currently tied for 19th after being tied for 81st in goals when he returned from injury on Jan. 4.

Due to time missed, Matthews is on pace for 39 goals in 67 games, which would be his lowest season tally since the 2018-19 campaign when he scored 37 goals in 68 games. That definitely won't be enough to win the Rocket.

If he scores at his post-injury pace for the rest of the season, he can get another 26 goals to bring him to 46.

The current leader in goals is Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl. The 29-year-old German has scored 34 goals in 47 games. His 0.72 goals per game has put him on pace to score 59 goals in 82 games.

Catching Draisaitl — if Draisaitl remains at his current goal pace —  would require Matthews to score 39 goals in his next 33 games (1.18 goals per game). That's difficult but not impossible. After all, Matthews is no stranger to going on exceptional scoring runs. During the 2021-22 season, when he recorded 60 goals for the first time in his career, Matthews scored 51 goals in a 50-game stretch.

Related: The Cheat Sheet: Will The Oilers And Maple Leafs Get Over Or Under 102.5 Points?

His chances of scoring 39 goals in 33 games, however, are slim. He’d have to play incredibly consistent hockey and stay healthy. For Matthews to catch Draisaitl, Matthews would have to go on a ridiculous run, but he would also need the Oilers’ sniper to see his goal pace take a dip.

If Draisaitl ends the season with around 55 goals, the task becomes a bit easier but still very daunting. But if there is one player in the NHL to get this done, it would be the Maple Leafs’ captain.

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