Yahoo Sports The Eagles soar, Texans stumble and the best bets of the Wild Card round
Let's start with a disclaimer. This is the exact time of year you should fade my bets.
I can't speak for our new Rhode Island Scumbag, who got hot as the 2024 NFL season wore on and heads into his first postseason. But for me, the playoffs are when I think I see the league clearly and promptly fall flat on my face.
This weekend's Wild Card lines appear to offer lots of value. There are a lot of bets I looked at and made an immediate snap judgment. "Hell yeah," I say, as I throw cash down on a modest Minnesota Vikings bet that sounds good in theory but will probably slip through my fingers like tightly gripped sand when Matthew Stafford rises up. Or Jordan Love. Or a multitude of other quarterback capable of keeping my postseason losing streak alive.
So beware. I feel good about this week's bets. That means something bad is about to happen.
Let's see where our Scumbag friend landed after a tidy nine-unit profit this regular season. All his plays are below. His analysis is in blockquotes. My non-Scumbag picks -- which, again, consider fading -- follow.
Time to make some money off some playoff football! The stakes get higher, and the upsets hurt just a little bit more. After an anticlimactic tie in our season long competition -- we both finished up nine units -- I was pumped when Christian reached out to see if I was interested in continuing this exercise through the playoffs.
I’m going to start out somewhat conservative, contrary to my regular season start (where I went down six units right out of the gate). Here are some wagers I like that may help us build that playoff bankroll.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Houston Texans (two units)
Houston’s play as of late encourages me to put my faith in Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers for the second consecutive week. Initially I was going to point out that Houston’s record against playoff teams this season was 1-5, but Los Angeles didn’t fare much better at 2-5. Call this a gut feeling, but I just really like the Chargers this week.
They are getting healthy and are playing some good football at the right time. The Texans have been erratic at best and can’t seem to put it all together -- especially on offense where they are down both Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. The Chargers had one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. I think they take care of business on the road.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (one unit)
Philadelphia will have Jalen Hurts back just in time for its matchup against Green Bay. This obviously elevates an offense already brimming with talent.
The Packers will have a really tough task cracking the resurgent Eagles defense. They didn’t look great in their season finale last week against the lowly Chicago Bears, either. I think the Eagles take care of business at home, despite the best efforts of Jordan Love and company. One unit here.
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (one unit)
I went against the AFC home dog, but won’t do the same for the NFC counterpart. The Rams had won five straight before their loss last week while resting their starters. A large part of those victories were how well the defense played.
After their Week 14 shootout win against the Buffalo Bills, they gave up a collective 24 points to the 49ers, Jets and Cardinals. Granted, Minnesota has been a wagon this year for the most part, but showed some serious chinks in their armor after being manhandled by the shorthanded Detroit defense last Monday night.
I understand it’s shaky ground betting against a 14-3 team that could’ve been the one seed with a victory last week, as well as a homecoming of sorts for Sam Darnold (USC) if the game is able to be played in LA. Still, the Rams have proven they can win big games. Minnesota really hasn’t. I’ll take the risk here, trusting the Rams’ experience.
My non-Scumbag bets, part I: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (two units), Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Houston Texans (two units), Minnesota VIkings (-1) over Los Angeles Rams (one unit)
All I had to do last week was win a single bet to claim the regular season title over the Scumbag. That blew up in my face and now I'm stuck looking back at Week 16, where seven plays resulted in a six-unit profit. Welp, feels like now is as good a time as any to spray some bets, even if they're square as hell. Remember -- these are the plays you should probably fade, no matter how good I feel about them.
Let's start with the familiar bets. The Packers' resume is loaded with unimpressive wins and high profile failures. The Eagles team they faced in Week 1 has similar offensive strengths as the current version, but now their defense is fully formed -- particularly with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean growing into significant roles as rookies. Factor in a not-quite-100 percent Jordan Love and Philly's homefield advantage and this feels like a touchdown win for the Eagles.
The Texans and Chargers should manifest into a rock fight between two top six defenses. Ultimately, Los Angeles's strength up front and Houston's iffy blocking should be the difference. C.J. Stroud had failed to launch all season and now he's got to face one of the AFC's best defenses.
I'm certainly afraid of Matthew Stafford with a healthy offensive line and Puka Nacua. However, the Vikings can discombobulate him with pressure and take advantage of his relative lack of mobility. Los Angeles's defense finished the season ranked 23rd in expected points added (EPA) allowed and now has to stop Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones. Eeesh.
My non-Scumbag bets, part II: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over the Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) over the Pittsburgh Steelers (one unit each)
Baker Mayfield had his best season as a pro and now gets an undermanned Washington defense at home. The Commanders are a great story and Jayden Daniels could have a star-making moment in Florida (assuming he's healthy), but their ahead-of-schedule rebuild is missing some key pieces. If Tampa Bay can shut down Terry McLaurin, this could be a double-digit win.
I know I've brought this graphic up a few times this week, but it's an important one:
That stretch includes a 34-17 Ravens win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Christmas. Mike Tomlin absolutely has the chops to keep this close, but this feels like another statement win for Lamar Jackson as he rewrites his postseason legacy.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: The Eagles soar, Texans stumble and the best bets of the Wild Card round
