Liverpool’s Missing Piece: Why Zubimendi Moves the Needle

Dave Davis & Dr Phil Barter: Transfer Market Metrics

In the labyrinthine world of football metrics, certain players emerge as true game-changers, the kind of individuals who don’t just fit into a system—they elevate it. Martín Zubimendi is precisely that for Liverpool.

Unlike other potential signings such as Ederson (Atalanta) or Varela (Porto) who we reviewed previously, Zubimendi ticks multiple boxes on both sides of the ball with an elegance that’s hard to overlook. His metrics tell a compelling story, revealing a player who would do more than just “fit in” at Liverpool—he would be a key part of the midfield.

Zone 14: The Key to Unlocking Defenses

For those unfamiliar with the term, Zone 14 is the area just outside the opponent’s penalty box, a critical zone in football where playmakers create opportunities and midfielders exert their influence. It’s often called the “Golden Square,” a fitting name given its importance. Zubimendi excels in this area, frequently progressing the ball into Zone 14, turning defense into attack with seamless transitions.

His ability to consistently pass or carry the ball into this zone makes him invaluable, particularly in a team like Liverpool that thrives on high-intensity, quick transitions. Zubimendi’s metrics show he’s in the 62nd percentile for progressive passes, which doesn’t seem earth-shattering at first glance.

However, considering Real Sociedad’s style—where 58.3% of their goal kicks are launched long and they often bypass the midfield bar Merino who they target—this statistic is quite impressive. Sociedad almost use him as one cog in the machine, where the graphics show circulation between players too. He’s easily good enough to be the key man though.

Dr Bart’s call-out: “Zone 14 and hs are really important for getting into the hot zone which seem to be key for Slot’s build up play, so again Martins ability to help progress our play into these areas should lead to more possession in the hot zones and therefore greater chance creation and higher quality chances being created.”

Aerial Dominance: Small Stature, Big Impact

At first glance, Zubimendi might not strike you as an aerial dominator. Standing at a modest height compared to some of his peers, one might expect him to struggle in aerial duels. But metrics and reality often clash, and in this case, the numbers reveal a different story. Zubimendi boasts a 71.1% win rate in aerial duels, the highest among midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues since the 2019/20 season. This places him ahead of players like Rodri and Tchouaméni, who are celebrated for their physicality.

This aerial dominance isn’t just a nice-to-have; it’s a game-changer in the Premier League, where physicality and aerial battles are integral to success. It was the biggest concern we had against Varela as a wider physicality question. Whether it’s defending set-pieces or challenging for long balls, Zubimendi brings an underrated, yet vital, quality to the pitch.

Passing Stats: Don’t Worry Too Much

Zubimendi’s passing metrics, on the surface, may not wow you. With a pass completion rate of 86.0% and ranks like the 62nd percentile for passes attempted, the numbers seem pedestrian, especially for a player being touted as a midfield game changer. However, these stats need context. Real Sociedad deploys one of the highest defensive lines in La Liga, which means their approach often skips the midfield. As we said, the team relies heavily on Merino for aerial duels in long goal kicks, and Zubimendi’s role is more about shielding the backline and creating space for others rather than dictating play.

Yet, when given the opportunity, Zubimendi has shown that he can handle the pressure. His performance in the Euro 2024 final was a masterclass in midfield control, where he demonstrated his ability to dictate the tempo against the very best (89% pass completion for the second half). He won both his challenges in that game too. That’s why Liverpool shouldn’t fret over surface-level passing stats; the underlying quality is undeniable, and in a system like Liverpool’s, he would thrive.

Dr Bart’s call-out: “Against real he made 13 passes into hr hs or zone 14 which is good considering the opposition! He’s also involved in short (5-10 passes) and medium (10-15 passes) moves. Again it’s impressive given the low possession they had against Real.”

The Real Madrid Game: EPV and Zubimendi’s Influence

Expected Possession Value (EPV) is a metric used to quantify the impact a player has on their team’s likelihood of scoring or conceding when they have the ball. It’s a nuanced way to evaluate a player’s contributions beyond traditional stats. Zubimendi’s performance in Sociedad’s home game against Real Madrid in April is a case in point. His EPV was one of the highest on the pitch, illustrating how vital he was in both transitioning the ball and preventing Madrid’s potent attack from gaining ground.

We’re not going to go full wagon wheel like we do in the show, but it’s important to summarise. This game serves as a microcosm of what Zubimendi can offer Liverpool. His ability to control the tempo, protect the backline, and still contribute to the attack is precisely what Liverpool’s midfield needs.

Dr Bart’s call-out: “EPV wise he only gave up 3% of Real’s EPV in his zones, which gives you a sense of his performance in that role against the eventual league winners who were going for the title in this match. Don’t forget Jude operated in his zones”.

Transfer Specifics: Breaking the Bank for the Right Player

Liverpool has long been a club that balances the books, rarely splurging on transfers unless they see undeniable value. However, when a player like Zubimendi is on the table, they must be willing to make an exception. His buyout clause is substantial )see Mo Chatra tweet for the difference between this and a release clause), but so is his impact. This isn’t just about filling a gap; it’s about transforming the team. The needle doesn’t just move—it jumps when a player of Zubimendi’s calibre steps onto the pitch.

Liverpool may balk at the idea of paying the full release clause upfront, but this is one of those rare instances where doing so is justified. In Zubimendi, Liverpool wouldn’t just be buying a player—they’d be investing in their future.

Dr Bart’s call-out: It’s one that moves the needle for sure.