Doug Pederson, Mike McCarthy and the NFL's most fireable coaches after Week 3

It's too early to fire a struggling NFL head coach. It's not too early to start thinking about it, however.

Three weeks of the 2024 regular season have provided valuable data about all 32 teams, providing a baseline for which franchises are exceeding expectations (the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints, certainly) and which aren't. While we're dealing with a very small sample size and there's plenty of time for each of these guys to right the ship, we're gonna talk about the coaches who've seen their stock drop the most this September.

Some guys on this list don't have to worry about job security. They've shown enough in the recent past to earn some job security. Others may covertly have their agents reaching out to CBS and Fox about potential pregame panel gigs. Let's look at the NFL's most fireable head coaches after three weeks of the 2024 season.

6. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals

Let's get this out of the way immediately. The Cincinnati Bengals will not be firing the head coach who brought them to a Super Bowl three seasons ago.

But starting the season 0-3 with losses to a pair of teams that earned top three draft picks months earlier? That's a fireable offense.

Slow starts are nothing new in the Taylor-Joe Burrow era, but 0-3 is a new low. Cincinnati came back from 1-2 each of the last two seasons en route to winning records, but those four losses each came against teams who finished the year either in the playoffs or with records better than .500.

The Bengals haven't just been losing; they've been losing uniquely each week. The offense couldn't find its rhythm against the Patriots. The team couldn't derail Patrick Mahomes' comeback in Week 2. On Monday night, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo's defense had no answer for a quarterback making his third NFL start.

The bottom line is Taylor is 37-47-1 as Cincinnati's head coach but 29-25-1 with Joe Burrow behind center. He's been capable of setting up his star quarterback for success, but hasn't been a superstar. He's won the lone challenge he's tossed out this season, and if that holds it will be the first time he's ever gotten at least half his coaches challenges right over the course of a year (13 of 35 overall).

On the other hand, he guided Jake Browning to a winning record as the team's quarterback. Taylor's clearly got the juice as an offensive savant. The question is whether that's enough anymore -- and whether the Bengals would be the contender they've been recently without the efforts of Anarumo on the other side of the ball.

5. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 2-1 and would be 3-0 if not for a failed fourth down in Week 2. But Philadelphia is also a few bounces away from 0-3, which is not the reassuring start the franchise needed after crashing out of the postseason last winter.

Sirianni brought in Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator and added secondary talent young and old to address his team's biggest weaknesses. While that's worked in stretches, some of the flaws that derailed 2023's NFC title defense remain. His fourth down calls are questionable (and he's taken full responsibility for this). The boldness that paid off years earlier has swung to the other side of the spectrum.

Regression was always waiting for a coach who takes calculated risks. More concerning is his and Moore's inability to restore quarterback Jalen Hurts. The dual-threat maestro and 2022 All-Pro has 27 turnovers in his last 21 games. He's given the ball away in nine of his last 10 games, with the exception coming in a 32-9 playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With A.J. Brown sidelined, he's been unable to push the ball downfield, instead relying on big runs after the catch (and big runs from Saquon Barkley, period) to keep his offense moving.

Despite the rocky start, the Eagles still stand at the top of the NFC East. There's plenty of time for Siranni to put his gears in working order and return Philadelphia to a well-oiled machine. But the vibes don't match the record of a coach who has gone 27-10 in the regular season since 2022.

Sirianni should be fine; once a few of those bold calls break his way, he'll look like a counterculture genius again and the Eagles will tread back toward the playoffs. For now, however, things are a bit unpleasant in eastern Pennsylvania.

4. Brian Daboll, New York Giants

The Giants can offload Daniel Jones while eating a tolerable $11.1 million dead salary cap hit next offseason. Daboll, the 2022 Associated Press and Pro Football Writers Association Coach of the Year, could be swept out as well.

Daboll took advantage of a weak schedule and powerful run game to push New York to 9-7-1 in his debut year, culminating with a road Wild Card win vs. the Minnesota Vikings. The year-plus since hasn't been as kind. Daniel Jones was one of the league's worst quarterbacks before getting hurt in a six-win 2023. 2024 has shown some promise in the form of rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers. It also gave us this:

Beating the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 provided a respite, but you only get so much credit for beating Deshaun Watson, once accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as "predatory behavior" and now one of the worst Browns quarterbacks of the modern era. Even so, there's minor progress.

A defense that ranked 28th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed in 2022 rose to 22nd in 2023 and ranks 15th early in 2024. Jones remains a mess -- the scrambling that once buoyed his game is coming back slowly after last season's injuries -- but Nabers adds an explosive element to the offense that was previously missing. Things could be better than they look in New York!

Or, the head coach who failed to create a contingency plan for an injured kicker, then lost in Week 2 thanks to his inability to kick extra points, could keep the Giants locked in misery. Both feel equally likely.

3. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Eberflus saw positive returns from Caleb Williams in his third start as an NFL quarterback. This was not enough to earn a win on a day where Williams outplayed a struggling Anthony Richardson, leaving Chicago at the bottom of the NFC North with a 1-2 record.

Williams has all the traits of a franchise quarterback, but the Bears run the risk of breaking him the same way they kept Justin Fields from meeting his potential. Like Fields, the rookie is getting crushed behind a shoddy offensive line in a scheme that has struggled to consistently play to his strengths.

Williams has been sacked on roughly one in 10 dropbacks, but while his 13 sacks are tied for third-most in the NFL, his 36 percent pressure rate ranks just 12th. Eberflus has, once again, created an offense that gives a young quarterback too much to process in the pocket, leading to negative plays and a litany of third-and-longs (the Bears' 33 percent third down conversion rate is 23rd best in the league).

A warm seat is pretty much par for the course in Chicago. Eberflus looked cooked in 2023 before finishing the season on a 4-2 run. With his defense playing like a top three unit, it made at least some sense to give him another shot, this time with a new quarterback. That defense continues to thrive, but it hasn't mattered because the Bears' offense has scored three touchdowns in three games.

There's time to fix this. Then again, clock management and situational awareness aren't exactly Eberflus's strong points.

2. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

It's not Mike McCarthy's fault Jerry Jones' master negotiating tactics left this team pressed up against the salary cap and unable to add significant veteran help after last January's Wild Card blowout loss. It may be Mike McCarthy's fault that the guys who stuck around suddenly stink.

Dak Prescott, the NFL's highest paid player, was moribund his first two weeks. He played better in Week 3, but ultimately failed because his defense gave up 28 points in the first three quarters -- which, in fairness, was a better showing than Week 2 vs. the New Orleans Saints where Dallas gave up 41 points in the same span.

McCarthy's defense ranks 28th in EPA/play allowed. His offense clocks in at 20th. This is a problem, because the regular season is where he's supposed to shine. The McCarthy experience is to carve a path to the playoffs, then make absolutely no meaningful changes while opposing defenses react en route to a frustrating, way-too-early postseason loss (generally including some baffling clock management).

There's not much for opponents to react to now, however. The Cowboys just look bad.

1. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Whenever the Jaguars manage to escape their own gravity and enter the troposphere of NFL contention, the consequences of their own actions lie in wait to drag them back to earth. That takes many forms; letting Tom Coughlin run a low-key prison camp, drafting Blake Bortles, nine years of Jack Del Rio, etc.

In 2024, we may be seeing a slow-burning chain reaction to the Urban Meyer debacle.

Meyer was an out-and-out disaster as a head coach, a train wreck who didn't know his players names, lost games on the field and embarrassed himself off it. But despite making him the first coach fired in 2021, Jacksonville used this job search head start and... became the last team to hire a head coach in a sloppy cycle, eventually settling on Pederson.

At first, this worked. Pederson led the Jags to the AFC South title and a stirring comeback victory in the Wild Card round. And, importantly, he wasn't Nathaniel Hackett, who'd also interviewed for the job. But after an 18-12 start, he's 1-8 in his last nine games. Jacksonville fell from 8-3 to out of the playoff race last season. In 2024 the team ranks 30th in points scored and 28th in points allowed.

Everything is a mess, and Trevor Lawrence -- who received a $275 million contract extension this offseason -- has regressed badly after earning MVP consideration in 2022 (seventh place). Things may not get much better with the embattled Trent Baalke at general manager. The Jaguars may be looking at a full front office flush this offseason. Or maybe earlier.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Doug Pederson, Mike McCarthy and the NFL's most fireable coaches after Week 3