What does Vegas say about UK basketball’s outlook for next season (and Pope vs. Calipari)?

In our In the Spotlight stories, Herald-Leader journalists bring you continuing coverage of news and events important to our Central Kentucky community. Read more. Story idea? hlcityregion@herald-leader.com.

Now that rosters for the 2024-25 college basketball season have been finalized across the country, the national preseason rankings are crystallizing.

And that includes the early projections from the folks who set the betting odds in Las Vegas.

While all of the major sportsbooks have been constantly updating their 2025 national title odds amid the comings and goings this offseason, Caesars has already released its rundown of the SEC hierarchy for the 2024-25 season.

It’ll obviously be a much different league this time around, with longtime Kentucky coach John Calipari moving across the conference to Arkansas, Mark Pope coming on as the leader of the Wildcats, a unanimous favorite to win the SEC from elsewhere and two new teams in the mix.

As expected, the first batch of odds favor Alabama to take home the league title next season.

Nate Oats’ squad, which is coming off its first Final Four in program history, is listed by Caesars as the top choice to win the SEC at +300 (the equivalent of 3-1 odds). That might sound short in a hyper-competitive, now-16-team league, but Bama is considered nationally to be the clear favorite to win the conference, with some major basketball outlets even ranking the Crimson Tide at No. 1 in the country this offseason.

Oats will bring back his leading scorer, Mark Sears, who is the presumptive preseason SEC player of the year, along with a few other key returnees (namely Grant Nelson, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and Jarin Stevenson), along with some instant-impact transfers (Clifford Omoruyi, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway) plus the nation’s No. 2-ranked high school recruiting class.

In-state rival Auburn is No. 2 on the Caesars list at 4-1 odds to win the league.

Bruce Pearl’s group will include another major SEC returnee — former Morehead State star Johni Broome — along with Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones and Dylan Cardwell from last season’s SEC Tournament champion roster.

Arkansas is next at 11-2 odds. Calipari’s blend of newcomers, former Kentucky players and one-time UK recruits is an intriguing bunch, and — while outside shooting could end up being a major concern — there will be a ton of upside for his first season in Fayetteville.

Trevon Brazile is the only scholarship returnee from last season’s Razorbacks roster, but Calipari has added former FAU star Johnell Davis and ex-Tennessee big man Jonas Aidoo to his group of former UK players (D.J. Wagner, Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivisic) and ex-Kentucky recruits (Boogie Fland, Karter Knox and Billy Richmond).

And then comes Kentucky, which Caesars lists as the co-fourth choice (along with Tennessee) at 7-1 odds to win the league.

Pope’s roster currently features 12 scholarship players, though none of them have previously played for the Wildcats and only one — BYU leading scorer Jaxson Robinson — has ever played for the new UK coach.

Robinson is one of nine incoming transfers — a group that also includes 3-point sharpshooter Koby Brea, former McDonald’s All-American center Brandon Garrison, defensive stoppers Lamont Butler and Amari Williams, high-major starters Andrew Carr, Kerr Kriisa and Otega Oweh, plus mid-major standout Ansley Almonor — and none of these new Cats have ever been college teammates.

Tennessee, also at 7-1, loses SEC player of the year Dalton Knecht, Santiago Vescovi, Josiah-Jordan James and Aidoo, but Rick Barnes is getting back point guard Zakai Zeigler, plus Jordan Gainey and Jahmai Mashack, along with an impressive transfer group headlined by Chaz Lanier, who was once a major Pope target this offseason.

Texas A&M (8-1), Florida (9-1), Texas (16-1), Ole Miss (16-1) and Missouri (20-1) round out the top 10 on the Caesars odds list. The longer shots are Mississippi State (30-1), Vanderbilt (30-1), LSU (40-1), Georgia (50-1), Oklahoma (50-1) and South Carolina (60-1).

The Gamecocks have been picked to finish last in the league in each of the past two seasons, and head coach Lamont Paris led off SEC media day last fall with a humorous, detailed and ultimately prophetic teardown of preseason predictions.

“Glad it wasn’t second to last,” Paris said in October. “Second to last is nothing. I can’t even use that as bulletin board material.”

South Carolina finished tied for second place in the SEC with a 13-5 league record, and Paris was the clear choice for the conference’s coach of the year honor.

SEC odds to win national title

Naturally, Alabama is also the top betting choice among league teams to win the 2025 NCAA title, with Caesars, bet365, ESPN Bet, FanDuel and MGM all placing 12-1 odds on the Crimson Tide to take home their first national championship. DraftKings has them even shorter, listed as the co-first choice with UConn and Kansas at 10-1 odds.

The consensus actually has Arkansas as the No. 2 choice among SEC teams to win it all next year, with four of those betting outlets placing 25-1 odds on the Razorbacks. Calipari has not advanced past the first week of the NCAA Tournament since 2019 — and his last trip to the Final Four was in 2015 — but the major sportsbooks still often had UK among the top betting choices to win the national title during the preseason, a sign that gamblers remained willing to buy into the potential of Calipari’s teams all the way to the end of his Kentucky tenure.

Auburn’s national title odds ranged from 25-1 to 30-1.

Kentucky is 18-1 on the ESPN Bet app, a major outlier. Caesars, bet365 and DraftKings have UK at 30-1 to win the national title, while FanDuel and MGM place the Cats’ odds at 35-1. Pope has never won an NCAA Tournament game in nine years as a head coach (at Utah Valley and BYU).

Tennessee’s title odds range from 25-1 on ESPN to 45-1 on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Vols have never been to a Final Four, and last season’s trip to the Elite Eight was just their second in program history.

UConn is the slight consensus favorite to win the NCAA title for the third straight year. The Huskies’ odds range from 7-1 to 10-1 across the major betting sites. It was announced Monday that Dan Hurley had agreed to a new six-year deal worth $50 million (plus incentives) after turning down an offer to coach the Los Angeles Lakers this offseason.

The Huskies are just the third program since 1973 to win back-to-back NCAA titles, and they’ll look to become the first team to take three consecutive championships since UCLA won seven in a row between 1967 and 1973.

Kansas is right there with UConn in the preseason odds, with most sportsbooks putting the Jayhawks at 10-1 odds. Duke, Houston and North Carolina — along with Alabama — are the other top-tier favorites nationally to win it all in 2025, according to a majority of the major betting outlets.

Pope vs. Calipari, Part I

The date for the game hasn’t even been set, but there’s already an opportunity to wager on the Kentucky-Arkansas matchup.

FanDuel has a section on its betting app called “Calipari Specials” that allows bets on the first SEC clash between Pope and Calipari, a game that will take place at Rupp Arena.

Kentucky is listed as a -162 favorite on the app, which means a bettor would have to wager $162 to win $100 — making the Cats a relatively clear favorite in the home game. Arkansas is a +125 underdog on that bet.

The Cats and Razorbacks will play each other only once in the 2024-25 regular season, according to the matchups released by the SEC earlier this year. Rupp will be the site for the game, and Calipari’s return to the building after 15 years as UK’s coach will surely provide quite the spectacle.

Pope and Calipari have actually coached against each other before. In UK’s 2017-18 season opener, Pope’s Utah Valley squad led Calipari’s Cats 34-25 at halftime in Rupp Arena before Kentucky managed a 73-63 victory. That was Pope’s third season as a head coach.

Other college basketball odds

Some other interesting tidbits from the major betting sites …

▪ Like Pope, new Louisville coach Pat Kelsey built a roster from scratch this offseason, though the sportsbooks have much longer odds on the Cardinals to win it all. ESPN currently has U of L at 75-1 to win the national title, while Caesars, bet365, DraftKings and FanDuel all have the Cards at 80-1 odds. MGM has Louisville at 100-1. (None of the major sites have ACC betting odds, as of now.)

▪ Louisville hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since Rick Pitino was ousted as head coach in 2017, and Pitino’s current team actually has much shorter odds to go all the way this season. St. John’s is at 40-1 to win the 2025 title, according to Caesars, DraftKings and ESPN, with bet365 putting the longest odds on the Red Storm (at 60-1). Caesars also has St. John’s as the 4-1 second choice in the Big East, behind only odds-on favorite UConn.

▪ Baylor coach Scott Drew turned down the Kentucky job before Pope accepted, and his Bears are among the top betting choices nationally. Baylor is listed at 20-1 to win the 2025 NCAA title by all of the aforementioned sportsbooks, except for ESPN, which has them at 22-1.

▪ Of the sportsbooks that are already offering women’s basketball national title odds, Caesars has Kentucky at the shortest number (150-1). DraftKings and bet365 put the Cats at 400-1 odds to win the 2025 title. Kenny Brooks will be in his first season as UK’s coach, and the heavy favorite nationally will be an SEC rival. Defending NCAA champion South Carolina is listed at shorter than 2-1 odds to repeat across all of the major betting sites.

A breakdown of SEC basketball coaches Mark Pope will X-and-O against in 2024-25

Mark Pope’s summer construction job is about more than just basketball

The architect of the new UK basketball offense is ready to run. Here’s what he’s thinking.

One week into summer practice, what does Mark Pope think about his UK basketball team?

‘It just feels different.’ Mark Pope talks about the experience of recruiting to Kentucky.

‘Everything I know comes from him.’ Sons of NBA stars taking over as top college prospects.

Dick Vitale is in another fight against cancer. For the fourth time, it’s his own.

UK men’s basketball coach Mark Pope buys Lexington home in gated estate