What does Cardinals rise to second place mean for their trading deadline plans?

Something curiously unfamiliar happened to the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday morning following their resilient series-ending victory in Philadelphia – they woke up in possession of a playoff spot, free from any tiebreakers, half a game ahead of the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants.

It’s not reasonable to be too worked up about a team that’s a game below .500 climbing into the third wild card spot, and the state of the National League in 2024 more broadly leaves a great deal to be desired.

That accomplishment, such as it is, may not be one which stands out in people’s minds, but with eight weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, Monday’s Cardinals look a lot different from the mid-May club which was flirting with 10 games below breaking even.

Last season, both the Diamondbacks and Marlins got into the playoffs in the NL with 84 wins. In 2022, the Phillies were the last team over the line at 87. The expansion to three wild cards has created opportunities which have been vigorously cashed in; both of the teams to win the pennant in the NL since playoff expansion have come from that group.

The savvy opinion regarding the path of a season tends to bend toward cashing in trade chips and aiming for the bottom of the standings for all but the most obvious contenders. There’s obvious benefit in getting some trade return for players a team might not otherwise be planning to keep, and the tank enthusiasts have the benefit of no one ever being able to tell them they’re wrong. If there’s one thing front offices (outside of the Rockies) are always able to succeed at, it’s stripping a roster for parts.

The Cardinals do have that option.

Paul Goldschmidt is headed for free agency this winter. So is Andrew Kittredge. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have team options for next season. Ryan Helsley, with yet another year of team control after this season, could be one of the most coveted trade pieces in all of baseball, should the Cardinals choose to go down that path. Last season’s sell off hasn’t generated anything in the way of big league results outside of contributions by John King, but several of the players acquired leaped toward the top of the team’s prospect rankings.

And yet it’s precisely because of last season that the idea of getting in and rolling the dice might have additional appeal. Certainly a second summer in baseball purgatory would bode ill for the futures and fortunes of the team’s decision makers.

A reckoning is likely coming to the front office this winter regardless of placement in the standings, but it’s much easier to sell the benefits of a natural line of succession coming off a bounce back season than another flop.

The team’s trade assets also might have some value in house. Of that obvious group of five players, Kittredge is perhaps the one hardest to find a place for in 2025, if for no other reason than the reality of the free agent market. Perhaps Lynn and especially Gibson stand out as savvy additions who have shown enough to date this year to be leaned on next year, assuming health.

If Goldschmidt’s turnaround from misery continues apace, he could well finish the season hitting .250 and in the neighborhood of 20 home runs and 75 runs batted in. Those aren’t marquee numbers, but they may be good enough to offer Goldschmidt a qualifying offer this winter and make peace with his accepting or rejecting a one year deal in the range of $20 million. Having never before been a free agent, the Cardinals maintain that option as long as he’s not traded, and they would then receive compensation if he signs elsewhere.

Helsley, certainly, would have high value this winter should the Cardinals opt not to pursue a long-term extension. There is a window to tear down this summer that can be pushed to the off-season without much in the way of consequences, and with the added benefit of attempting to re-energize both a fan base and a clubhouse that refuses to get used to the taste of losing baseball.

To leap from how the team is currently trending to a soft and safe landing in the mid-80s win range might require some outside additions, but none that would be particularly pricey. A depth right-handed bat who can act as a designated hitter and handle the outfield capably would be welcome, as would another reliever or two to cover for the innings Keynan Middleton might otherwise have handled. Since there’s no such thing as too much pitching, another starter would also be more than welcome.

That would make, for sake of argument, the Chicago White Sox a convenient one-stop shop for most Cardinal needs. There were some inside the organization who were surprised that John Brebbia did not return to St. Louis this winter, and indeed, some who still expect that reunion to occur.

Tommy Pham continues to contribute all the wide variety of things, both on the field and off, that he has contributed his whole career, the Erick Fedde’s career renaissance since returning from Korea is right on track and also under contract control for next season.

The Cardinals wouldn’t be the only team trying to strip the White Sox for parts, and there are a variety of options at a variety of price points available across the game. Unlike last year, though, St. Louis might not have a seller’s stall at the market.

For the franchise more broadly, that’s almost certainly the right choice.