Detroit Lions ignore analytics, confident RB and LB first round draft picks ‘ready to go’

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — This one won't go over well with the analytics crowd, and frankly, that's fine by Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes.

Holmes ignored longstanding NFL norms on positional value by taking a running back and linebacker in the first round of Thursday's draft.

The Lions selected Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, a bottle rocket of a player, at No. 12 overall, then grabbed playmaking Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell six picks later at No. 18.

Both players fill needs on a Lions team that plans to make a long playoff run this fall. But no matter how big of an impact they have as rookies, their selections open Holmes, a GM who has done little wrong while building the Lions into contenders from scratch, up to the same type of smartest-man-in-the-room scrutiny that doomed Lions GMs of the past.

“I get it, man,” Holmes said in his news conference after Round 1. “It’s not the guys that everybody had in their mock drafts and all that stuff. And frankly, we don’t care. We just, we feel really confident about the work that we put in and what those guys are going to do on the field. And I think our fans are going to be really, really proud and really excited about what they see. And I’m not saying (in) like a year (or two), we believe that these guys are ready to go right now."

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Holmes has shown an extraordinary eye for talent in his 27 months on the job.

He stole Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth round of the 2021 draft, nabbed James Houston in the sixth round last year and nailed both of his top-10 picks with Penei Sewell and Aidan Hutchinson.

He has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to draft day decisions, and I believe there is merit to his approach.

In a draft widely panned for its lack of blue-chip talent and limited depth, Holmes took the two surest things he could find that fit the Lions roster in Round 1 and added an early second-round pick in a trade down to give him three choices on Day 2.

Quantity of a certain quality is important in any draft, and the Lions are in position to walk away with three of the best 55 players on their board. Their first-round picks may play devalued positions, but if they get five or six good years out of both — the length of the standard rookie contract plus a fifth-year option and franchise tag year — few if anyone will complain about where they were picked.

The Lions did not have a chance at two of the best defensive players in the draft, edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Devon Witherspoon, who went third and fifth overall, and it’s clear they weren’t totally sold on two of the other best defenders in the class (Jalen Carter and Tyree Wilson) because of off-field or injury concerns.

Holmes traded out of his original No. 6 pick with both Carter and Wilson on the board, and made Gibbs the second-highest drafted running back since 2018 (behind Thursday’s No. 8 overall pick, Bijan Robinson) in a move that surprised even Gibbs.

THREE QUESTIONS: Lions go off perceived board, but Brad Holmes adds two playmakers in Round 1

Gibbs told Detroit reporters in a conference call Thursday he thought he would go in the 20s and was talking with friends when the Lions phoned to tell him he was their choice.

Holmes said he believed Gibbs would have gone in the teens — he mentioned No. 15 specifically, where the New York Jets were picking — had the Lions not taken him at No. 12. He also admitted he probably could have traded down from No. 18 and still landed Campbell, but did not want to take the chance of missing out on a player who was far and away the best player left on the Lions' board.

“It’s not about just don’t pick a running back (in Round 1) because that’s not how we really view (Gibbs),” Holmes said. “And then it’s the same thing about don’t pick an off-ball linebacker. That’s not really how we view Jack. If you put them in boxes and you put on a sheet of paper and you run mock draft analytics, yeah, you can come up with those stats. But all the hours and research and all the time that we put in, in terms of looking at these players, it becomes very, very visible that what kind of impact they can bring.”

Both Gibbs and Campbell should bring more value than typical players at their positions, but to dismiss analytics in the draft is to ignore the science of the selection.

There is an opportunity cost to taking running backs and linebackers (plus safeties, guards and tight ends) early in the draft. Above-average starters at those positions are often found in the middle rounds, and people a lot smarter than me have explained the added value of drafting and developing a player at a premium position (like quarterback, pass rusher, cornerback or wide receiver) and having that player on a rookie deal.

Group thinking gets decision makers fired in the NFL, which is why copycats rarely work. So saying the Lions shouldn’t draft a running back or off-ball linebacker high just because others don’t — none were taken in the first 20 picks last year, for instance — makes for a hollow debate

Holmes is right that who a player is and how he fits a team matters more than the position he plays when it comes to the draft. But if he's wrong about his picks Thursday, or the players on whom he passed, it could have long-lasting consequences for a Lions team that's striving to be great.

“You can look at positions and all that kind of stuff, but especially in this draft, if you try to get cute and you’re saying, ‘Oh, well, let me get — ‘ Well, no, there was no other whatever you would tab as a premium position (worth the pick)," Holmes said. “We had (Campbell) as the highest-rated player and the same with Jahmyr. Jahmyr was the highest-rated player, so we’ll just take the best players for us.

"I’ve always said that that’s what we’re going to do, and we find players that fit us and what we’re about. What we’re about as a culture, from the character standpoint, from an intangible standpoint, from an intelligence standpoint. Like the talent is one thing, but these players fit us and that’s why we’re thrilled about them."

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Detroit Lions GM Brad Holmes' Round 1 NFL Draft picks are a gamble